The markets are closed but pollsters don’t rest. Figures released by various companies shower a tighter race. Some indicate some loss of momentum for the Brexit camp ahead of the tragic murder of MP Jo Cox on Thursday while others show a direct shift in voting intentions worth 3% from side to side, or a 6% move, in the aftermath of the killing.
The data narrows the average lead for Leave from 5% to only 2%, making this a truly open contest. It is now 46% to 44% after reaching 48% to 43% at the Brexit peak which was a total shift from 46% / 41% for Remain beforehand.
Here is updated data from UK polling report:
There is also new Survation poll in the Mail on Sunday. In this case the fieldwork was conducted on Friday and Saturday, so took place wholly after the death of Jo Cox. Topline figures, with changes since Survation’s midweek poll, are REMAIN 45%(+3), LEAVE 42%(-3) – so Remain are back in the lead after dropping behind in the week. Interesting, but it is as yet only one poll…
There is a new YouGov poll (one of two tonight) for ITV. Topline figures are REMAIN 42%(+3), LEAVE 44%(-2). Like Survation the poll shows a swing back towards Remain, but unlike Survation this poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, wholly before the attack on Jo Cox, suggesting that there may have been a swing back towards Remain anyway. There is a second YouGov poll out later tonight for the Sunday Times, with fieldwork conducted on Thursday and Friday…
Given these polls, we can expect an extension of the pound’s gains, gains that began with the low point of the murder and were worth a total of around 330 pips: from 1.4010 to around 1.4345 at the close on Friday.
Resistance awaits at 1.4350 followed by 1.4440, 1.45, 1.4580 and 1.4650. Support is at 1.4280