With a majority of opinion polls currently favouring a 'Leave' outcome betting odds have changed substantially.
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The probability that the UK will vote to remain in the EU has declined from 82% in late May to only 58% currently. With an increased probability of a 'Leave' vote the GBP has depreciated across the board, particularly against currencies such as the USD, JPY and CHF.
The tight relationship between changes in betting odds and the exchange rate offers an attractive way to compute the impact on the exchange rate of the referendum outcome. It indicates GBP/USD could well move to 1.30 given a 'Leave' vote or 1.5 0if 'Remain' wins.