14 June 2016, 11:59
Vasilii Apostolidi

EUR/USD: Neutral: Bearish if daily closing below 1.1200.

While the downward momentum has eased somewhat after the rebound from the low of 1.1231 yesterday, the undertone for EUR is still weak and the immediate risk is tilted to the downside. However, as highlighted yesterday, only a daily closing below 1.1200 would indicate the current neutral outlook has shifted to bearish. In the meanwhile, this pair is expected to remain under pressure unless it move and stay above the 1.1330 resistance.

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GBP/USD: Bearish: Target 1.4090.

There is no change to the bearish GBP view and we continue to anticipate a move towards the immediate target of 1.4090 (overnight low of 1.4117). Stop-loss on shorts should remain unchanged at 1.4400 for now even though 1.4330 is already a strong shortterm resistance

AUD/USD: Neutral: In a 0.7260/0.7460 range. [No change in view].

The bullish phase that started middle of last week was short-lived and AUD dropped below the key 0.7365 support. The outlook for this pair has shifted to neutral and the current movement is likely the start of a consolidation phase that may last for a week or so. Expected range; 0.7260/0.7460.

NZD/USD: Bullish: Slim prospect for further NZD strength.

The 0.7030 stop-loss for the current bullish NZD view is barely intact (overnight low of 0.7032). There is a slim prospect that this level may continue to hold but unless NZD can move and stay above 0.7105 by end of today, the outlook for this pair would shift to neutral.

USD/JPY: Bearish: Immediate 106.00 target exceeded; focus on 105.50/55 now.

The immediate target of 106.00 that was first highlighted last Monday was exceeded yesterday as USD dropped to low of 105.72. While downward momentum is not as impulsive as preferred, the outlook in the coming days is still clearly bearish and the next level to focus on is at the year-to-date low of 105.50/55 seen in early May. A break below this level would open up the way for further decline towards the major support zone of 105.00/105.20.

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