AUD/USD: the Recovery Continues, Now Through 100 DMA
AUD/USD
has dropped from 0.7834 highs this year and has resumed the downside to
score lows of 0.7244, penetrating the 200 dma at 0.7258.
AUD/USD has since recovered in a bounce from the lows and below the 200
dma to score a high of 0.7366 so far, breaking the 100 dma at 0.7339.
There has been an element of a recovery in oil again that continues to
make fresh highs this week and now posts territory through $48bbls to
$48.44bbls WTI, supporting the Aussie and commodity bloc.
On the data and events front, the RBA minutes last night indicated that
it was a close decision that is supportive to the Aussie given that it
is less likely that the RBA would be so swift to cut rates again
immediately.
While the Aussie has been on the back-foot recently, it has been
relatively resilient, especially to the poor Chinese data and continued
recoveries could fuel additional support once again in AUD/USD - FOMC
minutes tomorrow will be next major catalyst either way while today's CPI surprise
has done little to really favour the greenback, despite supporting the
opinion of a share of the market that the FOMC could decide to hike in
June.
AUD/USD levels
AUD/USD bounced from below the 200 day ma at 0.7258 and 0.7450 is next
target. Analysts at Commerzbank suggested that below 0.7213 (61.8%
retracement) on a closing bias will prove critical and suggest a return
to the 0.6828 January low.
"The market remains overall on the defensive following the large outside
day charted 2 weeks ago. Rallies should terminate circa 0.7430/0.7530,
initial resistance lies 0.7477 (24th March low). The market remains
negative while below 0.7717, the 3 rd May high."
