AUD/USD: the Recovery Continues, Now Through 100 DMA

AUD/USD: the Recovery Continues, Now Through 100 DMA

17 May 2016, 20:09
Roberto Jacobs

AUD/USD: the Recovery Continues, Now Through 100 DMA

AUD/USD has dropped from 0.7834 highs this year and has resumed the downside to score lows of 0.7244, penetrating the 200 dma at 0.7258.

AUD/USD has since recovered in a bounce from the lows and below the 200 dma to score a high of 0.7366 so far, breaking the 100 dma at 0.7339. There has been an element of a recovery in oil again that continues to make fresh highs this week and now posts territory through $48bbls to $48.44bbls WTI, supporting the Aussie and commodity bloc.

On the data and events front, the RBA minutes last night indicated that it was a close decision that is supportive to the Aussie given that it is less likely that the RBA would be so swift to cut rates again immediately.

While the Aussie has been on the back-foot recently, it has been relatively resilient, especially to the poor Chinese data and continued recoveries could fuel additional support once again in AUD/USD - FOMC minutes tomorrow will be next major catalyst either way while today's CPI surprise has done little to really favour the greenback, despite supporting the opinion of a share of the market that the FOMC could decide to hike in June.

AUD/USD levels

AUD/USD bounced from below the 200 day ma at 0.7258 and 0.7450 is next target. Analysts at Commerzbank suggested that below 0.7213 (61.8% retracement) on a closing bias will prove critical and suggest a return to the 0.6828 January low.

"The market remains overall on the defensive following the large outside day charted 2 weeks ago. Rallies should terminate circa 0.7430/0.7530, initial resistance lies 0.7477 (24th March low). The market remains negative while below 0.7717, the 3 rd May high."


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