GBP/USD Forecast: Still in Range, Risk Turned South

GBP/USD Forecast: Still in Range, Risk Turned South

13 May 2016, 12:16
Roberto Jacobs
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GBP/USD Forecast: Still in Range, Risk Turned South

The GBP/USD pair fell on the back of increasing risk aversion, hitting 1.4378, a few pips above this week low and the 61.8% retracement of the latest bullish run around 1.4370. The absence of macroeconomic news coming from the UK, however, keeps the pair within range and with no certain directional momentum.


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Later on today, the US will release its Retail Sales and PPI figures for  April, expected generally better than March ones. If the data surpasses forecasts, the dollar can rally all across the board, leading to a break below the mentioned support. 

In the 4 hours chart, the technical picture favors the downside although we limited bearish strength, given that the technical indicators remain well below their mid-lines, but with a modest downward strength, while the price is below a horizontal 20 SMA. 

A break below 1.4370 should lead to a test of the 1.4330 region, followed later by 1.4290. The upside seems limited by the 1.4440/50 region, and it will take extremely poor US data to see it rally beyond the level, up to the 1.4500/30 price zone.


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