AUD/USD: headed to 0.7477? More action to come ...
is pursuing the downside and more than often, a weekly bearish stick is
followed by at least another one or two, although that has not been the
case so far this year.
However, the fundamentals on this occasion are a solid platform for the bears as we lead in towards the nonfarm payrolls at the end of this week for more potential fireworks. However, before then we have a few other key releases for Australia. Trade balance and retails sales are up tomorrow while at the end of the week we will have the RBA's statement. In respect to nonfarm payrolls, analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman offered a preview:
"Another 200k increase in nonfarm payrolls is not a game-changer. Even modest earnings growth is unlikely to do much to help the dollar. The FOMC has already taken this on board. The issue is not jobs or income; it is consumption and investment. We suspect that the dollar risk is asymmetrical. It is more likely to be sold on disappointment than to rally on a stronger report. "
AUD/USD slipped to the 2016 uptrend line at 0.7550 and took that out to print fresh lows of 0.7482 earlier today. We are just above 0.7477, the late March low, and a break there opens0 .7416 (16th March low). The next point of target is the October and November highs at 0.7384/81. On the flip-side, intraday rallies should terminate at 0.7680, the mid-March high, according to analysts at Commerzbank.