For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer term perspective the last 3 months Currency Classification can be used in support.
This was updated on 24 April 2016 and is provided here for reference purposes:
Strong: JPY, AUD, CHF. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
Average: USD, CAD, NZD. The preferred range is from 3 to 5.
Weak: EUR, GBP. The preferred range is from 1 to 2.
The charts were provided in the article: "Forex Currency Score Classification for Wk17".
13 Weeks Currency Score Strength for Week 18 / 1 May 2016
The 13 Weeks Currency Strength and the 13 Weeks Average are provided here below. This data and the "3 months currency classification" are considered for deciding on the preferred range. Because it is not ideal nor desired to change the range for a currency every single week, we perform several checks to avoid this.
- First of all the strength over a period of 13 weeks. See each row for more information.
- Then the 13 weeks average, see the last row called "Avg. 13 wks."
- The number of weeks that a currency is stronger than another currency can also be evaluated.
- The TA Charts for each Time Frame can also be consulted.
- Besides these the "13 weeks Currency Classification" chart of each currency is also consulted and compared. These have been updated and can be found in the article: "Forex Currency Score Classification for Wk17".
Last week the AUD took a dive and the score of 7 from the week before changed into a score of 1. Nevertheless, the currency remains strong over a longer period. See the chart below for more details.
Currency Score Comparison for Week 18 / 1 May 2016
table" and the "Ranking and Rating list"
By using the comparison table directly below you can get a view without the volatility and statistics as opposed to the "Ranking and Rating list". Only the strength of each currency against the counterparts is analyzed by using the Technical analysis charts of the 4 Time Frames that are also used for the "Ranking and Rating List".
The information from the Comparison Table is the source for calculating the "Ranking and Rating List" where this list uses additionally the volatility and statistics for creating the best and worst performer in the list from number 1 to 28.
table" and the "Currency Score Chart"
The comparison table provides a way to compare currencies from a longer term perspective of 13 weeks and also simultaneously taking the current trend into account. By coloring the currencies in the X and Y axis according to their Classification, see "Forex Currency Score Classification for Wk17", we can show what the best combinations are. In doing this we apply 2 rules to make it clear.
- First of all only better classified currencies in combination with weaker classified currencies are "Approved".
- The only exception is when 2 currencies are similarly classified but the Currency Score difference is equal to or more than 4.
- It means that each currency should be as far apart from each other as possible in the range from 1 to 8. This means that the classification of the currencies in question may change in the longer term. By using the difference of 4 which is exact the half of the range it seems a safe approach for trading 2 currencies similarly classified.
- Since each classification covers only 2 or 3 scores at the most it means that the currencies should be at least one classification apart from each other in the current week.
- Even though they are in the same
classification when looking at the 13 weeks average a currency may be
in a weaker/stronger period and may even change its classification in
the future. See the current classification for the coming period at the
top of this article.
Putting the pieces together
Based on the last "3 months currency classification" and the "Currency Comparison Table" the most interesting currencies for going long seem to be the JPY, CAD and CHF. These are strong or average currencies from a longer term perspective when looking at the last "3 months currency classification". For going short the same analysis can be done and the USD, GBP and the AUD seem to fit best. These are weak or average currencies from a longer term perspective.
Some of these pairs comply for a longer term trade based on the Daily and Weekly chart. We will look at these ones here in a bit more detail. The ones that do not comply may be more interesting for the short term. See the article "Ranking, Rating and Score" for more details.
- When analyzing the Weekly and Daily charts the best pairs for the coming week seem to be the GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY, USD/JPY, CHF,JPY
- A crossed join between the Top 10 pairs in the "Ranking and Rating List", the "Currency Comparison Table" and the pairs with the best charts mentioned here above shows the following interesting pairs: GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY, USD/JPY.
- The following pair is not mentioned as "Approved" pair in the "Currency Comparison Table": CHF/JPY
- The following pair is not mentioned in the Top 10 of the Ranking and Rating list: CHF/JPY.
- GBP/JPY with the AUD/CHF
- AUD/JPY with the GBP/CHF
- GBP/CAD with the AUD/JPY
- GBP/CAD with the AUD/CHF
However, if we compare these pairs only with the "Currency Comparison Table" they are all approved.
DISCLAIMER: The articles are my personal opinion, not recommendations, FX trading is risky and not suitable for everyone.The content is for educational purposes only and is aimed solely for the use by ‘experienced’ traders in the FOREX market as the contents are intended to be understood by professional users who are fully aware of the inherent risks in forex trading. The content is for 'Forex Trading Journal' purpose only. Nothing should be construed as recommendation to purchase any financial instruments. The choice and risk is always yours. Thank you.