18 April 2016, 12:17
Vasilii Apostolidi

EUR/USD: Bearish: Downside potential likely limited to 1.1145.

There is no change to our bearish view but as highlighted previously, downward momentum is not very strong and the downside potential is likely limited to 1.1145. Stop-loss remains unchanged at 1.1395 but 1.1350 is already a strong short-term resistance.

Looking further ahead, this pair has to move below the strong 1.1230 support within the next few days as a prolonged consolidation above this level would lead to a rapid loss of momentum.


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GBP/USD: Neutral: In a broad 1.4000/1.4350 range now.

There is not much to add as GBP continues to trade in an erratic manner.

The outlook is still neutral and we continue to expect this pair to trade in a broad 1.4000/1.4350 range for now

AUD/USD: Neutral: Diminished odds for an upside break.

As indicated in recent updates, despite the clearly improved upward momentum, we prefer to wait for a clear break above the major 0.7750 resistance before turning bullish. The sharp drop upon opening today does not bode well for AUD and the odds for an upside break has diminished considerably.

From here, AUD has to move clearly above the key 0.7765 resistance (level moved higher from 0.7750) before further up-move can be expected. On the downside, strong support is at 0.7585 but a clear break below this rather crucial level could lead to a rapid sell-off towards the early April low of 0.7490.

NZD/USD: Neutral: Range trading between 0.6760 and 0.6970.

The outlook for NZD is mixed as this pair continues to trade in an erratic manner. There is no change to our view wherein we expect further choppy range trading within a broad 0.6760/0.6970 range

USD/JPY: Neutral: Increasing downside risk.

We turned neutral USD last Friday after our stop-loss was triggered at 109.60 (high of 109.73). The sharp drop upon opening in Sydney was clearly unexpected. The downside risk is increasing quickly and a daily closing below 107.50 would indicate a resumption of the bearish trend.

The odds for such a move appear to be quite high unless this pair can reclaim 109.40 in the next few days.

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