AUD/USD: Technical Condition of AUD Deteriorating - BBH
Analysts from Brown Brother Harriman, explain that the AUD/USD could have topped and consider that the technical outlook favors the downside.
“The Australian dollar's rally began before other markets, and it should not be unexpected that it peaks first. The technical condition of the Australian dollar is deteriorating.”
“First, met the 61.8% retracement objective of the slide since last May (that began near $0.8165). That retracement was found by $0.7650. Second, there are bearish divergences with the RSI and MACDS. There technical indicators did not confirm the new high the Aussie set at the end of March. Both indicators are now trending lower.”
“Third the Australian dollar is posting a potential outside down day. It has traded on both sides of yesterday's range. A close below yesterday's low (0.7533) would confirm it. Fourth, over the next few sessions, the five day moving average is likely to cross below the 20-day moving average for the first time since January 27.”
“The strength of the Australian dollar, coupled with some disappointing data, is already spurring some speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia could cut rates to offset the tightening of financial conditions represented by the currency appreciation. The derivative market has about a one in three chance of a rate cut in May discounted. Disappointing data next week from the labor market could elevate such expectations.
“Initial support is seen in the $0.7490-$0.7510 area. A break would signal another cent decline into the $0.7380 area, which corresponds to old highs form last October and November, and a 38.2% retracement of this year's rally. Below there is the 50% retracement near $0.7275. If the Q1 16 rally was corrective in nature, a move back below $0.7170 is possible later in Q2.”
(Market News Provided by FXstreet)