Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB

EUR/USD: Bullish: Above 1.1375 would open up the way for 1.1495.

While the price action after last Thursday’s peak of 1.1340/45 is viewed as a short-term consolidation phase, the recent build-up in upward momentum has fizzled out quickly. Unless EUR can reclaim 1.1305 in the next 1 to 2 days, the risk of a break below 1.1200 will increase quickly.

To put it another way, a break below 1.1200 would indicate that the bullish EUR phase that started on 11 Mar has topped out at 1.1340/45 (the major 1.1375 resistance was not threatened).

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GBP/USD: Bullish: Diminished odds for a move to 1.4570. The sharp pull-back yesterday does not bode well for our bullish GBP view. In order to maintain the current upward momentum, GBP has to continue to march higher as a prolonged consolidation would lead to a rapid loss in momentum.

At this stage, we still view the down-move from last week’s high of 1.4514 as a correction but a break below 1.4350 would indicate that a short-term top is in place and GBP would probably trade sideways for a period of time before the next leg higher can be expected. 

AUD/USD: Bullish: Target 0.7740.

The pull-back from the high of 0.7681 last Friday is considered as a short-term corrective pull-back.

As long as 0.7520 is intact, another leg higher towards the major 0.7740 resistance is still a distinct possibility. 

NZD/USD: Change to Neutral. Back into a broad 0.6650/0.6900 consolidation range.

The breach of the 0.6750 stop-loss yesterday (low of 0.6747) signals the third time this year that NZD has tried but failed to break higher (the recent high of 0.6875 fell short of the massive resistance zone at 0.6880/00).

From here, NZD has likely moved back into a broad sideway range between 0.6650 and 0.6900.

USD/JPY: Bearish: Bearish for 110.00.

While the recovery from last week’s low of 110.65 has been more resilient than expected, the sharp drop from the recent high of 112.95/00 appears incomplete and another leg lower to test the 110.00 support is still a distinct possibility.

The overall price action appears to be a ‘triangle break-down’ but a move back above 112.95/00 would indicate that the drop to the 110.65 is a ‘false break’.