Analysts at TD Securities explained that the strength of the short-covering in WTI crude oil, particularly with another 10% of short interest over the last week, has been similar in magnitude to the early-2015 price rally and net spec positioning reversal.
"Despite current positive sentiment due to attempts by OPEC participants to "up-play" a potential April "freeze" meeting even without Iran, specs should be keen enough to see that without Iran global production will continue to charge forward. This should keep prices below current resistance and trending lower, as exuberance from the Fed dovish backtrack wears off.
"Palladium specs still seem undecided on the direction for prices ahead. With gold in favour, but losing upside momentum as markets digest better US data, palladium shorts covered sharply last week, and have taken off more than half of the record-setting bearish bets (~17K lots) that they placed this year. However, with Chinese auto sales also falling into negative growth last month, the longs have trimmed their position to new lows on the year, matching levels seen back in 2012 when prices sold off to a similar price level as current prices."
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