Last week strengthened the dollar scenario. EUR/USD continued falling towards its lowest levels since spring 2025, but Friday’s weak NFP slightly changed the balance. The US economy added only 29,000 jobs in September versus 90,000 expected, unemployment rose to 4.2%, and wage growth slowed. Expectations of another Fed rate hike in October fell sharply. This pushed Bitcoin above 87,000. Gold, despite a Friday rebound, posted a second weekly decline, while Brent ended near 102.
💶 EUR/USD
The bearish scenario fully played out: the pair broke 1.1325-1.1355 and fell to 1.1215. Weak NFP helped the euro rebound, but a strong dollar and high US Treasury yields continue to pressure the pair. Weekly close: 1.1250. Support: 1.1200-1.1230, then 1.1100-1.1125 and 1.1030-1.1060. Resistance: 1.1325-1.1355, then 1.1390-1.1410 and 1.1495-1.1510. Below 1.1325-1.1355, the outlook remains moderately bearish. A break below 1.1200-1.1230 could open the way to 1.1125; a return above this zone could lead to 1.1390-1.1410.
🟠 Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Bitcoin again outperformed most risk assets. After an early-week correction, the price jumped on weak NFP and hit a weekly high of 87,400 on Friday, before pulling back to 84,430. Support came from lower expectations of an October Fed hike and interest in crypto ETFs. Support: 83,850-84,200, then 82,515-82,850, 81,200 and 80,000. Resistance: 87,000-87,400, then 88,000, 90,000-90,400 and 93,800-94,700. Above 84,000, the outlook is neutral-to-bullish. A move above 87,400-88,000 could open the way to 90,000-90,400; a loss of 82,850 would increase the risk of a fall to 81,200 and 80,000.
🛢 Brent Crude Oil
After falling to 94.80, Brent quickly recovered and returned to the 102.00 area, confirming its high sensitivity to Hormuz-related headlines. Support: 97.50-98.00, then 94.00-95.00 and 92.00-92.70. Resistance: 102.00-102.60, then 103.50-104.60 and 106.00-107.50. While Brent remains between 97.50 and 102.60, the outlook is neutral and volatile. A break above 102.60 could open the way to 103.50-104.60 and 106.00-107.50; a drop below 97.50 would increase the risk of a move towards 94.00-95.00.
🥇 Gold (XAU/USD)
The bearish scenario remained in place. Gold ended the week near 4,140 under pressure from a strong dollar and high US Treasury yields. Weak NFP triggered a rebound to 4,228, but no stable reversal has formed yet. Support: 4,100-4,110, then 3,995-4,020 and 3,940-3,960. Resistance: 4,200-4,250, then 4,300-4,350 and 4,400. Below 4,200-4,250, the outlook remains moderately bearish. A break below 4,100 could open the way to 4,000; a return above 4,250 could lead to 4,300-4,350.
📈 Key Events and Likely Trends
Monday: Eurozone, UK and US services PMI, with US ISM Services as the main release. Tuesday: US trade balance and German factory orders. Wednesday, 7 October: German industrial production and minutes of the September Fed meeting. Thursday, 8 October: ECB minutes and US jobless claims. After weak NFP, expectations of an October Fed hike fell sharply, making central-bank minutes especially important for the dollar, gold and Bitcoin.
Likely trends: EUR/USD - moderately bearish below 1.1325-1.1355; below 1.1200-1.1230 → 1.1150. BTC/USD - moderately bullish above 84,000; above 87,000-88,000 → 90,000-94,000. Brent - neutral and volatile near 100; above 102.60 → 103.50-107.50, below 97.50 → 94.00-95.00. XAU/USD - moderately bearish below 4,200-4,250; below 4,100 → 4,000.
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