Last week confirmed the main scenario: the Fed delivered its first rate hike since 2023, taking the rate to 4.00%. The move was expected but failed to calm markets: the Dow lost 600 points, while the ECB’s tightening cycle at 2.65% was joined by a stronger dollar. The euro lost key support, Bitcoin turned higher on spot ETF inflows, gold rebounded towards 4,400, and Brent returned to the 97-100 range.
💶 EUR/USD
The pair closed at its lowest level since July. It started at 1.1595, consolidated until Wednesday, then fell after the Fed decision to a low of 1.1454 and finished near 1.1486. The 1.1580-1.1600 base and 1.1500-1.1520 support were lost. Support: 1.1450-1.1460, then 1.1390-1.1410 and 1.1325-1.1355. Resistance: 1.1500-1.1520, then 1.1550-1.1560 and 1.1600-1.1620. Below 1.1500-1.1520, the outlook remains moderately bearish. A break below 1.1450-1.1460 could open the way to 1.1390-1.1410; a return above 1.1500-1.1520 could lead to 1.1560 and 1.1600.
🟠 Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Bitcoin attacked 80,000 for the fourth time in two months and finally held above it. It started at 77,312 and jumped to 81,100 on Friday on about $433 million of spot ETF inflows. The rise despite a stronger dollar reflected the fact that the Fed hike had already been priced in, allowing ETF flows to dominate after the decision. Support: 80,000, then 77,000-77,300 and 73,000-73,900. Resistance: 81,700-82,800, then 87,000-88,000. Above 80,000, the outlook is moderately bullish. A break above 81,700-82,800 could open the way to 87,000-88,000; losing 80,000 could return the price to 77,000-77,300.
🛢 Brent Crude Oil
Brent followed the alternative scenario. Saudi Arabia increased exports through the strait, while de-escalation around Hormuz returned prices to the 97-100 range. Brent started at 107.60, reached about 109.50 on Tuesday, then fell after the Fed decision and closed near 99.70. Support: 97.50-98.00, then 92.60-93.10 and 89.00-90.00. Resistance: 100.00, 103.50-104.60, then 106.00-107.50 and 110.00-110.20. Below 103.50-104.60, the bearish correction continues. A break below 97.50-98.00 could open the way to 92.60-93.10; a return above 104.60 could lead to 106.00-107.50.
🥇 Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold confirmed the bearish scenario but recovered quickly. On the Fed decision day, it fell to 4,235 before rebounding towards 4,400 on Friday and closing at 4,378. Support: 4,300-4,350, then 4,200-4,250 and 4,000-4,080. Resistance: 4,400, then 4,450, 4,500-4,550 and 4,600-4,660. Below 4,400, the outlook is neutral. A move above 4,400-4,410 could open the way to 4,450 and 4,500; a pullback could target 4,200-4,250.
📈 Key Events and Likely Trends
Monday brings speeches from the ECB President and Bank of Canada Governor. Tuesday: Eurozone consumer confidence. Wednesday, 23 September: preliminary PMIs for France, Germany, the Eurozone, the UK and US. Thursday, 24 September: Swiss National Bank decision, ifo index and US jobless claims. Friday, 25 September: Bank of England Governor speech and University of Michigan sentiment. Fed officials speak throughout the week. For oil, Hormuz geopolitics remains key.
Likely trends: EUR/USD - moderately bearish below 1.1500-1.1520; below 1.1450-1.1460 → 1.1390-1.1410, above 1.1500-1.1520 → 1.1560 and 1.1600. BTC/USD - moderately bullish above 80,000; above 81,700-82,800 → 87,000-88,000, below 80,000 → 77,000-77,300. Brent - bearish correction; below 97.50-98.00 → 92.60-93.10, renewed Hormuz escalation → 106.00-107.50. XAU/USD - neutral below 4,400; above 4,400-4,410 → 4,450-4,500, pullback → 4,200-4,250.
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