Forex and Crypto Forecast for 28 September – 2 October 2026
Last week strengthened the dollar story: after the Fed raised rates to 4.00%, the US currency reached eight-week highs. The euro fell towards its June base, gold lost 4,300-4,350 support, Bitcoin surged towards 87,000 despite a strong dollar, while Brent ended its correction near the lower edge of the 97-100 range.
💶 EUR/USD
The pair fully followed our bearish forecast. It started at 1.1485, fell to 1.1359 on Thursday and closed Friday near 1.1390. Strong medium-term support at 1.1390-1.1410 remains important, followed by 1.1325-1.1355, the June-July base and yearly low. Resistance: 1.1450-1.1460, then 1.1500-1.1520 and 1.1550-1.1560. Below 1.1450-1.1460, the outlook remains moderately bearish. A break below 1.1325-1.1355 could open the way to new yearly lows; a return above 1.1450-1.1460 could lead to 1.1500-1.1520.
🟠 Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Bitcoin also reached its target but failed to hold it. It started at 81,050, jumped to 87,400 on Monday amid seven consecutive days of spot ETF inflows, then pulled back and closed near 84,000. Options expiry slowed the momentum. Support: 82,850, 81,200, 80,000, 76,900-78,000 and 74,900-76,000. Resistance: 87,000-88,000, then 90,000-90,400 and 93,800-94,700. Above 80,000, the outlook remains moderately bullish. A break above 87,000-88,000 could open the way to 90,000; losing 82,850 could return the price to 81,200.
🛢 Brent Crude Oil
Brent followed the de-escalation scenario, falling to 94.00 on Tuesday. Hormuz headlines then caused sharp swings: above 102.00 on Thursday and back down to a Friday close near 97.45. Support: 94.00-95.00, 92.00-92.70 and 89.00-90.00. Resistance: 100.00, then 102.00-102.60, 103.50-104.60 and 106.00-107.50. Below 100.00, the bearish correction continues. A break below 94.00-95.00 could open the way to 92.00-92.70; a return above 100.00 on renewed Hormuz escalation could lead to 102.60 and 103.50.
🥇 Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold followed the bearish branch of the forecast. It started at 4,380, fell to 4,235 and closed near 4,286. Support at 4,300-4,350 and 4,400 was lost. Support: 4,200-4,250, then 4,000-4,080. Resistance: 4,300-4,350, then 4,400, 4,450 and 4,500-4,550. Below 4,300, the outlook remains moderately bearish. Holding 4,200-4,250 could trigger a rebound to 4,300-4,350; a break below could open the way to 4,000-4,080.
📈 Key Events and Likely Trends
Monday, 28 September: speeches from the ECB President and Fed officials. Tuesday: Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision and US consumer confidence. Wednesday, 30 September: ADP employment, core PCE and final US GDP, plus German inflation and UK GDP. Thursday, 1 October: US jobless claims and PMI, plus a speech from the Bank of England Governor. Friday, 2 October: US unemployment and NFP, plus preliminary Eurozone CPI. For oil, Hormuz geopolitics remains key as Trump’s rejection of a ceasefire with Iran revives escalation risks.
Likely trends: EUR/USD - moderately bearish below 1.1450-1.1460; below 1.1325-1.1355 → new yearly lows, above 1.1450-1.1460 → 1.1500-1.1520. BTC/USD - moderately bullish above 80,000; above 87,000-88,000 → 90,000, below 82,850 → 81,200. Brent - bearish correction; below 94.00-95.00 → 92.00-92.70, Hormuz escalation → 102.60 and 103.50. XAU/USD - moderately bearish below 4,300; holding 4,200-4,250 → 4,300-4,350, break below → 4,000-4,080.
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