Forex and Crypto Forecast for 12–16 October 2026

Last week showed that weak NFP was not enough to reverse the dollar trend. The dollar kept the advantage amid high US Treasury yields and European risks, although markets became more sensitive to macro data. Volatility also increased in Bitcoin, gold and oil. The next major test will be US inflation, which could significantly change expectations for the Fed rate path.

💶 EUR/USD

The pair followed our bearish forecast: it started at 1.1258, broke 1.1200-1.1230 and hit a yearly low of 1.1160, closing near 1.1200. Pressure comes from a strong dollar, high US Treasury yields and France’s budget problems. US CPI is now key: stronger inflation would reinforce expectations of a second rate hike, while softer data could support a euro correction. Support: 1.1160-1.1180, then 1.1100-1.1125 and 1.1030-1.1060. Resistance: 1.1230-1.1235, then 1.1275-1.1285 and 1.1365-1.1380. Below 1.1275-1.1285, the outlook remains moderately bearish. A break below 1.1160-1.1180 could open the way to 1.1100-1.1125; a return above 1.1285 could lead to 1.1365-1.1380.

🟠 Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Bitcoin followed the risk scenario: it started at 85,827, lost support at 83,850-84,200 and 82,850, and fell to 80,305 during a liquidation wave. On Saturday, the pair trades near 82,750. After the sell-off, the market remains vulnerable, while CPI is the main trigger through rate and liquidity expectations. Softer inflation could revive risk demand; stronger data could increase pressure. Support: 82,200-82,350, then 81,500, 80,000-80,350 and 75,000-76,000. Resistance: 83,850-84,200, then 85,700-86,000, 87,000-87,400, 88,000 and 90,000-90,400. Below 85,700-86,000, the outlook remains moderately bearish. A break below 81,500 could open the way to 80,000; a return above 84,200 could lead to 87,000-87,400.

🛢 Brent Crude Oil

After falling to 96.30, Brent recovered towards 105.00 amid fuel shortages, a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico and Hormuz risks, closing at 102.75. The medium-term trend remains upward: recent lows have moved roughly from 70 to 77, 85 and 95, while the geopolitical premium no longer disappears completely after de-escalation. Support: 100.00, 96.20-97.20 and 94.00-95.00. Resistance: 104.60-105.00, then 106.25-107.50 and 108.60-109.40. Above 100.00, the outlook is neutral-to-bullish. A break above 104.60-105.00 could open the way to 106.25-107.50; losing 100.00 could return the price to 96.20-97.20.

🥇 Gold (XAU/USD)

Gold followed the bearish scenario: it started at 4,142, broke 4,100 and fell to 4,066, then reversed, tested 4,200 and closed near 4,195. The metal is again caught between a strong dollar and safe-haven demand. Higher CPI and stronger rate-hike expectations would pressure gold through yields, while softer data could support recovery. Support: 4,160-4,175, then 4,100-4,110 and 3,995-4,020. Resistance: 4,200-4,250, then 4,300-4,350 and 4,400. Below 4,200-4,250, the outlook remains moderately bearish. Holding 4,160-4,175 could allow a move to 4,250; a break below 4,100 could lead to 4,000.

⚠️ Key Events of the Week

13 October: German CPI. Wednesday, 14 October: US CPI, forecast 3.6% vs 3.4% previously. 15 October: UK GDP, US retail sales, PPI and Philadelphia Fed Index. Friday, 16 October: Eurozone CPI, US industrial production and speeches from the Fed and Bank of England heads. Monday is a partial holiday in the US and a holiday in Japan. For oil, Hormuz geopolitics remains the key factor. Прогноз 12-16.10.2026

📈 Likely trends: EUR/USD - moderately bearish below 1.1275-1.1285; below 1.1160-1.1180 → 1.1100-1.1125. BTC/USD - moderately bearish below 85,700-86,000; below 81,500 → 80,000. Brent - neutral-to-bullish above 100.00; above 104.60 → 106.00-107.50, below 100.00 → 96.20-97.20. XAU/USD - moderately bearish below 4,200-4,250; holding 4,160-4,175 → 4,250, below 4,100 → 4,000.

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