Last week reversed the dollar mood. US CPI failed to give the dollar fresh momentum: after EUR/USD hit a new yearly low, the pair recovered sharply. Brent broke above its previous range, gold rebounded from local lows, while Bitcoin remained under pressure. The dollar lost some of its advantage, with DXY falling from 102.75 to 101.94, while commodities ended the week higher. The key question now is whether this reversal can continue amid new data from Europe, the US and China.
💶 EUR/USD
The pair completed the bearish branch of our previous forecast and reversed: it started at 1.1190, hit a yearly low of 1.1112 on US CPI, then recovered sharply and closed near 1.1239. Support: 1.1200-1.1230, then 1.1160-1.1180 and 1.1110-1.1125. Resistance: 1.1270-1.1285, then 1.1365-1.1380 and 1.1390-1.1410. While the pair remains above 1.1180-1.1200, the outlook is moderately bullish. A break above 1.1270-1.1285 could open the way to 1.1365-1.1380; losing 1.1180 could return the pair to 1.1110-1.1125.
🟠 Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Bitcoin remained under pressure: it started at 83,590, reached 84,270, then fell to 79,680 during a new liquidation wave and closed near 81,615. Demand is limited by a firm dollar and weak spot-ETF inflows. Support: 80,700-81,000, then 79,700-80,000 and 75,000-76,000. Resistance: 83,850-84,300, then 87,000-87,400 and 88,000. While BTC remains below 83,850-84,300, the outlook is moderately bearish. A break below 79,700-80,000 could open the way to 75,000-76,000; a return above 84,300 could lead to 87,000-87,400.
🛢 Brent Crude Oil
Brent broke above the upper boundary of its previous range: it started near 102, surged to 110 on Friday and closed near 107.60. The medium-term trend remains upward: recent lows continue to rise, while the geopolitical premium no longer disappears completely after de-escalation. Support: 105.00-105.50, then 104.20-104.60, 103.00-103.40, 102.00-102.50 and 100.60-101.00. Resistance: 109.40-110.30, then 112.00-112.30 and 116.00. While Brent remains above 104.20-104.60, the outlook is bullish. A break above 109.40-110.30 could open the way to 112.00-112.30; losing 104.20 could return the price to 100.60-101.00.
🥇 Gold (XAU/USD)
XAU/USD followed the euro: it started at 4,188, fell to 4,073 on US CPI, then reversed, tested 4,200 and closed near 4,165. Gold remains caught between the dollar and safe-haven demand. Support: 4,100-4,110, 4,065-4,075 and 3,995-4,020. Resistance: 4,200-4,250, then 4,300-4,350 and 4,400. While gold remains below 4,200-4,250, the outlook is moderately bearish – a break below 4,100 could open the way to 3,995-4,020. Another test of 4,200 with a move towards 4,250 also remains possible.
⚠️ Key Events of the Week
19 October – China GDP and industrial production, Canada CPI; 20 October – UK labour market; 21 October – UK and New Zealand CPI, speech by the Bank of England Governor; 22 October – US jobless claims; 23 October – Japan CPI, UK retail sales, PMIs for the US, Germany and Eurozone, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment. For oil, Hormuz geopolitics remains the key factor. Прогноз 19-23.10.2026
📈 Likely trends: EUR/USD – moderately bullish above 1.1180-1.1200; above 1.1270-1.1285 → 1.1365-1.1380. BTC/USD – moderately bearish below 84,000-84,300; below 79,700-80,000 → 75,000-76,000. Brent – bullish above 104.20-104.60; above 109.40-110.30 → 112.00-112.30. XAU/USD – moderately bearish below 4,200-4,250; below 4,100 → 3,995-4,020.
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