Trade Ideas: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD - UBS
The following are UBS' latest short-term (mostly intraday) trading strategies for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD.
EUR/USD: A lot of short-term positions have been cleared and most market participants jumping back in will likely be running a smaller position. With the ECB meeting tomorrow, we expect pressure on the pair to remain intact. Play EURUSD from the short side, adding around the Asia high and cutting only if it goes above 1.1070. The first hurdle will be Monday's low of 1.0940, followed by 1.0900.
GBP/USD: Flows have been mostly non-existent and the market is very transactional. We think the pair is a buy below 1.4150 and a sell above 1.4275.
USD/JPY, EUR/JPY: The pair is still trading around the middle of its recent 111-115 range, so we are biased towards selling on rallies, especially EURJPY. Look to sell the cross above 124.00, with a stop through 124.75.
AUD/USD: Look to buy on dips between 0.7400 and 0.7330, with a stop below 0.7250, targeting a move to 0.7600. Support at 0.7380, 0.7330 and 0.7250; resistance at 0.7500, 0.7540 and 0.7600.
NZD/USD: has been trading slightly offered, in what looks like position squaring ahead of the RBNZ meeting. The RBNZ is expected to leave rates unchanged, but there is a slightly possibility of a 25bp cut, which could send NZDUSD to 0.6630/20. We don't expect a cut and see NZDUSD trading back to 0.6800, but prefer staying on the sideline.
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