Credit Suisse adviced to sell EUR/USD this week based on the following fundamental factors:
- "The monetary policy divergence has re-emerged, in our view.
We would stick to EUR shorts, following the ECB's dovish surprise at
its last meeting as the threat of more negative front-end rates could be
fairly effective in pushing funds out - for instance reserve managers
should be sensitive to negative rates given the short duration of their
fixed income holdings."
- "We expect unemployment to fall further to 5.0% (consensus is 5.1%), non-farm payrolls print to recover to 170k from 140k (consensus 180k) with positive backward revisions to the August and September prints (historically these two months tend to be revised up by 80k on average)."
From the technical point of view - the price for the pair broke 100 day SMA and 200 day SMA from above to below for the primary bearish market condition: the price was bounced off Fibo support level at 1.0896 to start ranging around 23.6% Fibo level. By the way, descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to below, and RSI indicator is estimating the bearish trend to be continuing, so the most likely scenario for this pair for the week is to continuing with bearish trend with the possible breakdown possibility.
