Morgan Stanley: 'We remain generally bullish USD'

Morgan Stanley: 'We remain generally bullish USD'

7 September 2015, 12:11
Sergey Golubev
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Morgan Stanley believes in bullish USD irrespective of commodity, China and some insinuations around Fed hike:

USD: USD Strong Against EM. Bullish.
"We believe that USD strength will continue to be focused against commodity and EM currencies. Volatility remains elevated and risks surrounding China could keep it high. Should China be resolved, this could lead to a temporary rally in EM FX, but it would not be long before the market started bringing forward the timing of the first Fed hike, ending any relief rally in EM FX. We remain generally bullish USD."

Let's evaluate the situation with dollar index concerning future possible direction of the trend: bearish or bullish in long-term situation?

Dollar Index: ranging within bullish levels. This pair is on primary bullish market condition with secondary ranging within 100.39 key resistance and 92.62 support level.

If the price breaks 100.39 resistance so the bullish trend will be continuing.
If the price breaks 92.62 support level so we may see the secondary correction within the primary bullish.
If the price breaks 84.63 support level from above to below so we may see the reversal of the price movement to the primary bearish market condition.

Resistance
Support
100.3992.62
N/A
84.63

Thus, the bearish reversal level is 84.63, and I do not see any possibility for the price to break this level from above to below in the near future for example. It means that Morgan Stanley's forecast is correct one.
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