EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015, 26.07 - 02.08: more ranging for the week

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.27 09:32

SEB bank - Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/CHF (based on efxnews article)

EUR/USD: "Testing nearby dynamic resistance. Buyers keep testing dynamic resistance at the low end of the short-term "Cloud" (at market). An "Upper Range Extension" (topside violation of the European opening hour range) would set some pressure on more resistance at 1.1075/85."

USD/JPY: "Short-term "Round-top" forming. Price action is tilted to the downside and first-hand dynamic support has been eroded. A counter-trend move lower has become increasingly likely - more so if breaking a near-term "Equality point" at 123.28 and after this not breaking back over 124.19. If this unfolds as thought, the next attraction/support below to scout is located at 122.72/45."

EUR/CHF: "An ongoing inter-range climb - Price action was bullish throughout the week last week, but little to take note of until now when a short-term "Equality point" has been violated and the early Jun high is under pressure. If not stopping here 1.0610 & 1.0650 are attraction/resistance levels to scout. In a medium-term perspective the next key level must be the Mid-Feb reaction high of 1.0811."

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.27 17:46

RBS - 1.05 target for EURUSD (based on forexlive article)

The Royal Bank of Scotland predicted the price for EURUSD as 1.05 1-year target, and those are the 5 key factors from RBS about why 1.05:

• "None of this has much directly to do with Greece."
• "Other factors that support some renewed fall in EUR/USD this year: faster money positioning in EUR/USD is now much cleaner than it was a few months ago, short EUR/USD is a far less crowded trade."
  
• "The German government bond market, which went into price melt-down in March, raising serious risks to other most owned positions like short EUR/USD, has stabilised."
• "Oil prices are falling again steadily."
• "Another key variable is US data and the US Federal Reserve. Informing our EUR/USD lower view is the assumption that the Federal Reserve makes its first tightening move in September his year. That is a close call. But a September rate cut is not fully priced and -if manifest - could give the Dollar a boost into Q4."
  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.28 09:00

Deutsche Bank with updated EURUSD review: target at 1.02 by Q3-end (based on efxnews article)

The Deutsche Bank updated their view on EUR/USD summarized all the factors and made a conclusion about target EUR/USD at 1.02 by Q3-end:

• "The European outflow story remains fully on track. We continue to see European outflows as part of a multi-year shift in portfolio allocation behaviour towards foreign assets."
  
• "The most important is the Fed's re-investment policy on QE assets, because decisions here will determine the prospect of what would essentially be QT, or quantitative tightening: nearly half a trillion dollars matures in 2016, almost equivalent to a full QE program in reverse."
  
• "Irrespective of lift-off, the key point then is that Fed tightening is multi-dimensional and likely to steadily reinforce a persistent shift away from the dollar as the world's major funding currency."