EURUSD Price Action Analysis - 'trade down to about .9840 in August before trading back to 1.1450'

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EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015, 19.07 - 26.07: bearish breakdown

Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.20 13:43

This is interesting situation on M5 timeframe: the price was reversed to the bullush condition and it was stopped by 1.0844 resistance level. The next target (for buy stop order placing) is 1.0859 :

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.20 17:52

Fundamental Reasons to Sell EUR - Credit Agricole (based on efxnews article)

Credit Agricole suggested to sell for EUR just because of the following:

1. "The EUR has been under pressure regardless of the Greek parliament voting in favour of the agreed bailout package. Even if all measures are implemented successfully it still appears questionable whether debt-sustainability can be achieved. From that angle Greece-related uncertainty is likely to continue for longer."
2. "ECB President Draghi reiterated anew that QE will run its course regardless of stabilising growth and price developments."
   
3. "In terms of data, this week’s focus will be on July PMIs."
4. "We expect the single currency to stay subject to downside risk. This is especially true when considering that speculative positioning is close to neutral territory, which suggests limited position-squaringrelated upside risk."

From the technical point of view, the next target for EURUSD is 1.0461 after crossing 1.0818 resistance level so the fundamental expectations of  Credit Agricole are more than real ones in this situation for example.

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.21 17:10

EURUSD price and 100 hour MA (based on forexlive article)

'The EURUSD price and the 100 hour MA are meeting as NY traders enter for the trading day. The 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart below) is at 1.0878 and that is the high for the day. Risk can defined and limited at the level. The 22 day Average true range is 124 pips. Yesterday's range was a year tying low of 50 pips.  All of this says, look for an extension.  So although the 100 hour MA is a risk defining level and the price is currently stalling - suggesting a selling interest, it remains a finger on the button trade. That is if the price moves above the 100 hour MA.'

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.22 11:15

Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD - Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken (based on efxnews article)

• The price is ranging between 1.0830 & 1.0995 levels for the primary bearish.
• The price will go to be out of ranging zone in case of 1.0879 support level to be broken from above to below.
• The price is located between 21 SMA and 50 SMA, and it is going along with 50 SMA as the strong resistance level of the value of it.
  
• "With fresh mid­ body support at 1.0879, near-term bulls should be inspired to at least test resistance at the lower end of the "Cloud" at 1.0994. If not stopping there a short-term descending trendline, now at 1.1105 would also deserve some attention. Current intraday stretches are located at 1.0830 & 1.0995."

The resistance level may be broken by price from below to above for the new rally, or the price will continuing with ranging between the levels.