EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015, 05.07 - 12.07: ranging between the levels to be ready for breakdown

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.05 08:01

EUR/USD Forecast July 6-10 – Another Greek climate (based on forexcrunch article)

EUR/USD had a wild week, moving on the deterioration of the crisis, but not always in the most straightforward manner. The new week begins with the Greek referendum and continues with data from Germany and France. Greece will certainly remains in the headlines throughout the week. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

Greek summary: the announcement of the referendum was followed by the Eurogroup rejecting a short term extension, the ECB capping assistance to Greek banks and triggering capital controls. This escalation resulted in a Sunday gap for the euro, but it found ways to recover and even rally. We then had ongoing negotiations, the eventual default of Greece to the IMF, more offers as both sides stopped talking and awaited the Greferendum, the IMF came out suggesting debt restructuring. For the latest, see: Greek crisis – all the updates in one place

In other news, euro-zone inflation slowed to 0.2% as expected and PMIs also came out within expectations. The US gained 223K jobs in June, slightly below expectations but revisions were negative and the bigger disappointment came from wages. Nevertheless, the Fed seems to be on track for a hike in September, but Greece is having a growing impact also on Yellen.

1. Greek referendum: Sunday. Exit polls expected in the European afternoon, well before markets open, with full results later on. The referendum, now dubbed #Greferendum, has been announced by Greek PM Alexis Tsipras on June 26th and is on the creditors’ proposal that was described by Greece as “take it or leave it”. The Greek government rejected it and calls for a vote against it. It is unclear if this proposal is still on the table. Some European leaders have described it as a vote on euro-zone membership. What’s clear is that it is a vote on the current government’s future. A Yes vote, which is more likely due to the deteriorating situation in Greece, will likely result in a relief rally, as it opens the door to a new government that will accept whatever it’s told. A No vote complicates the situation and could result in a big fall for the euro. The referendum is one climax, but the Greek crisis is set to accompany us throughout the week. Polls look too close to call.
2. German Factory Orders: Monday, 6:00. Europe’s powerhouse has seen a rise of 1.4% in April, better than expected. Despite usually being a volatile figure, this indicator has an impact. No change is expected now.
3. Retail PMI: Monday, 8:10. Markit’s measure for the retail sector finally edged up to the growth zone. It topped 50 points in May and hit 51.4 points. A similar number is on the cards for May.
4. Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 8:30. This survey of 2000 analysts and investors fell for the second time in June and fell to 17.1 points, below expectation. Nevertheless, it remained in positive territory, reflecting optimism. A score of 15.6 points is on the cards now.
5. German Industrial Production: Tuesday, 6:00. As with factory orders, also industrial output was good in April, advancing 0.9% and enjoying an upwards revision. A smaller change is on the cards now: +0.1%.
6. French Trade Balance: Tuesday, 6:45. The continent’s second largest economy has seen its trade deficits shrinking from the highs. In April, it reached a level of 3 billion euros, the lowest since 2009. A similar number is on the cards now: a deficit of 3.3 billion.
7. German Trade Balance: Thursday, 6:00. Contrary to France, Germany enjoys surpluses in the euro era. This surplus reached 22.3 billion euros in April, higher than expected and the highest so far this year. For May, a surplus of 20.6 billion is expected.
8. French Industrial Production: Friday, 6:45. In the past two months, France reported a contraction in the most recent industrial output data, but these were countered by positive revisions. For April, production fell by 0.9%. A bounce back is on the cards now: +0.5%.

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.06 06:09

The Meaning Of No (based on seekingalpha article)

It appears that a majority of Greek votes have been cast for rejecting the creditors' offer. The government campaigned for this result. Prime Minister Tsipras may find, however, that it has not strengthened his negotiating hand. To the contrary, the range of options has narrowed and the financial system is collapsing.

Tsipras has said he will go to Brussels and sign a revised deal within 24 hours. This is most unlikely. The second assistance program ended on June 30. A new one will have to be negotiated. This appears to require some parliaments, like Germany's, to authorize the negotiations. It is not only a function of time but desire. Judging from the IMF's report last week, without debt relief for Greece, the multilateral lender might not participate in a third program either.

The ECB reportedly will meet to discuss the Greek central bank's request for new ELA access. There is no reason to expect this to be forthcoming. The job of the ECB is not to support banks unconditionally. They need to be solvent. Bank can use a broader range of collateral in ELA borrowings than on loans from the ECB. There has been a concern that Greek banks were exhausting their supply of such assets. The past week only exacerbated this pressure.

Without ELA funding, the image of monetary asphyxiation seems fitting (though it gives the Greek government no reason, then, to threaten to hold its breath). Banks are running out of cash. Some suggest that there are sufficient notes until around mid-week, but not one seems to know. The longer it persists, of course, the greater the economic impact. Business failures, in turn, worsen the quality of the Greek banks' loan book.

A 2-bln T-bill matures on Friday, July 10. To secure the funding, the government plans on auctioning bills on Wednesday. Greek banks are primary buyers of the government bills, simply to roll-over their current holdings. While this has been a fairly routine exercise, it could be more problematic this week. It is worth noting the auction as a potential event risk.

The results of the referendum do not necessarily mean that Greece will leave the monetary union. There are still many steps to get from here to there. The political commitment to the irreversible nature of monetary union should not be under-estimated.

The euro is set to open lower, but within the range seen a week ago. A "no" victory was largely anticipated. The key now is the response by policymakers. The creditors may be somewhat more divided now. Tsipras may feel bolder, but he is playing with the same, or fewer, cards now.

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.07.06 13:40

UBS: Trade Ideas for EURUSD, GBPUSD and AUDUSD (based on efxnews article)

EURUSD: "it has had a muted reaction despite the surprise outcome from the Greece referendum. Even though the market is positioned short, we expect the pair to test the downside sooner rather than later this week. Keep it tight but prefer short and add on more spikes above 1.1055 with stops above 1.1125."

GBPUSD: "Cable should remain vulnerable to Greek updates. Cable could continue holding the recent downtrend with the double top just ahead of 1.6000 while approaching the 200-day moving average at 1.5447. Stay flexible and keep stops extremely tight, but prefer selling."

AUDUSD: "The reaction to the Greek 'No' vote has been muted so far but risk should trade soft given the likelihood of further escalation of the crisis. Sell rallies to 0.7500-0.7550 with stops through 0.7610."