Non-Farm Payrolls forecast from Goldman Sachs, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, RBS
5 June 2015, 09:44
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Goldman Sachs:
- The employment components of various manufacturing surveys have been weak (Dallas Fed manufacturing survey, Chicago PMI & the ISM services report)
- Mining sector job losses may persist and continue to be a drag
- GS say that the consensus forecast has overestimated jobs growth in May for the last few years, by 56,000 on average over the previous 5 years
- Warm weather likely inflated the jobs number in April, but this may have taken from jobs gains in May
Barclays:
- Expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by 225k
- Private payrolls to increase by 220k
- Government payrolls to grow by 5k
- They note initial and continuing claims both fell sharply in May from April
Deutsche Bank:
- Say that jobless claims are hovering near a 15-year low
- The growth rate of employee tax withholding receipts has meaningfully increased from the April to May employment survey periods (up about 5.6% in May compared to less than 4% in April)
RBS:
- Expect average hourly earnings growth to rise from 2.2% to 2.3% y/y
- Which would equal the largest y/y increase since 2009
- Expect unemployment rate steady at 5.4%
- Stronger-than-expected employment should keep the Fed on pace to hike the Fed Funds rate in September, and pulling forward of expectations could support the USD. A stronger USD and pulled-forward rate hike expectations could pressure commodity prices and weigh on commodity exporter currencies
