Technical Analysis for US Dollar, S&P 500, Gold and Crude Oil - Drop Pauses at 4-Month Support for Oil

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.01 06:36

EUR/USD May Swing to Downside This Week (based on wsj article)

The EUR/USD may swing toward the downside later this week, having failed to break through strong resistance around the 1.10 mark, says IG Securities market analyst Junichi Ishikawa in a morning note. Concerns about the Greek situation and possible upbeat U.S. data out later this week will likely keep a lid on any strong gains in the pair, he says. The focus is on whether the pair, now at 1.0950, can stay above the 1.08 level, its low of May 27. Still, should a surge of short positions kick in, the pair may be able to finally break through the upside resistance, but that kind of upside momentum will likely be capped around 1.1145, the 21-day moving average, he adds.

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.01 06:51

Gold Trades in Narrow Range in Asian Trade - says Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, director of Commtrendz Research (based on wsj article)

Gold prices are trading in a narrow range in Asian trade.

The precious metal has largely been taking cues from the expected timing of Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase. Data issued late last week showed the U.S. GDP fell 0.7% in the first quarter, which traders are interpreting to mean that a rate increase may come only late this year.

However, the dollar has held steady resulting in little price impact on gold as the two typically have an inverse relation with each other.

“The only trigger for gold could be Greece, if it signals a debt default,” says Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, director of Commtrendz Research. Investors typically buy the precious metal during times of geo-political uncertainty. Spot gold is currently trading up 65 cents at $1,190/oz.

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.01 08:43

Gold Market To Remain Range Bound Ahead Of Employment Report (adapted from kitco article)

Sean Lusk, director commercial hedging division at Walsh Trading said that gold has the potential to pop higher this week but prices will remain within the $100 range between resistance at $1,230 an ounce and $1,130 an ounce. “Right now there is a lack of conviction to take gold either way; I don’t think that is going to change,” he said.

Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, said that although there is a lot of important economic reports to be released this week, unless the data is widely outside of expectations, it won’t change the perception that the Fed will still hike rates in the second half the of year. “I just don’t think we will see a break out next week,” he said. “So long as the data is not horrible the expectations will remain that the Fed will raise interest rates in September,” he added.

George Gero, senior vice president at RBC Wealth Management, said that he is slightly bullish on gold as the market has already priced in higher interest rates, limiting gold’s downside; however an increase in wage, in Friday’s employment report could be seen as positive for gold because it is considered inflationary.

Ronald-Peter Stoeferle, fund manager at Incrementum AG and author of the In Gold We Trust report, agreed that the wage data in the employment report will be an important indicator for the gold market in the near-term.

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.01 11:43

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.06.01 20:24

EURUSD heads towards 200 hour MA (based on forexlive article)

The EURUSD could not keep a lid on the pair at the 1.0956 level. Sellers relented and buyers took more control. The price has now moved above the European highs and looks towards the high for the day and the 200 hour MA as the next targets (at 1.09876-89).  The high from last week at 1.1008 and the 38.2% of the move down from the May 22 high comes in at 1.10129 become the next targets.