Goldman Sachs: EURUSD Elliot Wave - there is still one last leg lower to complete the 5-wave decline

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newdigital, 2015.04.28 14:12

EUR/USD Testing Resistance (based on investing.com article)

EURUSD: Seeking the high 1.09s before down. The near-term grind higher is still on; now testing resistance at the low end of the descending 55 day exponentially weighted moving average band (1.09151.1035). While short-term dynamic support at the flat "Kijun-Sen" (1.0775) remains intact additional gains into the high-1.09s is the best fit. but once there look for near-term bearish signals to take advantage of. Current intraday stretches are located at 1.0790 and 1.0955.

Spot gold: On the lookout for a +$1,211 break. The biggest single-day gainer since late Jan must count for something.It now looks quite clear that the decline from the early Apr high of 1,224 is, or rather was,a correctional descent. All that is needed now is a +1.211 break to confirm this and to allow extension to and through resistance at 1,22426. A short-term "Equality point" hints that 1.257 is the next attraction/resistance to align aim at. Current intraday stretches are located at 1,185 and 1,209.

Brent Crude: Could recheck the $62-level before. The short-term bullish wave structure remains incomplete though it is still valid. If the recent sellers' response leads to near-term bearish initiative below mid-body support at 63.90; pencil in decline closer to dynamic support, now starting at 62.00. A sub-60.70 overlap is however not ideally wished for since it would complicate the wave count more.

S&P500: Bearish print on top. The short-term "equality point" at 2,121 held buyers at bay with sellers' response being strong there. The bearish print as a result points lower near-term (with short-term momentum indicators running at rich levels indicating an overstretch) and the ascending 8 day "Tenkan-Sen", now at 2,092, could be retested - but a buyers' response there (or no later than at 2,080) is likely. Current intraday stretches are located at 2,090 and 2,121.

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newdigital, 2015.04.28 18:02

EURUSD extends above next hurdle.  What next? (based on forexlive article)

The EURUSD had a bit of up and down time of it as the NY session got underway, but the support level held (see earlier post) against the 1.0915-25 area.

The subsequent rally has seen the price extend above the 1.0971 level (highest close since March 5th).  The next target is up at the 1.1000 level and there is some early profit taking against the level (or so it seems).  The natural resistance level has been breached 6 separate times over the last month and a half - each failed.  The high has extended to 1.09887 so far.  Real close support comes in at 1.0971.  If it stays above that level, we should see a serious test of the 1.1000 level.

The range for the day (was 91 pips earlier) is now at 130 pips. The average trading range over the last 22 days is 131 pips. So we have reached the average.  That does not stop the market from going higher but it can make additional moves more difficult.  Traders who are long, can take partial profit against the 1.1000 level. If we do get a break, however,  there will likely be stops as the squeeze continues.  The next target would be at 1.1025-35 area where highs from April 3 and April 9th stalled (and March 24th as well - see chart below). The high on March 25 peaked at 1.1051. 

sdsd

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newdigital, 2015.04.29 14:48

2015-04-29 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - GDP]

• past data is 2.2%
• forecast data is 1.1%
• actual data is 0.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It's the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health.

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"Real gross domestic product -- the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2015, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.2 percent.

The Bureau emphasized that the first-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 3 and "Comparisons of Revisions to GDP" on page 5).  The "second" estimate for the first quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on May 29, 2015.

The increase in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and private inventory investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from exports, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased."