Long-Term Outlook: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD - SEB
The following are the long-term technical outlooks for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
EUR/USD: A 12% deviation from a 21mt exponential moving average has in the past been just enough to trigger some kind of reaction against the prevailing trend. Fact that a long-term 'Equality point' at 1.11 also was filled did however not quite trigger the full potential of a purging correction back towards 1.1640/90 as was ideally hoped for. Inter-month sellers instead cut the move short to (1.1535) with a break below 1.11. Time spent blow this level would lower sights to 1.0800/1.0740.
USD/JPY: A deviation by more than 12% from a 21-month exponential moving average is usually what defines a long-term stretch in this pair an those conditions still prevails. There is however no clear evidence of a top in the making, nor are there strong signs of an immediate extension higher and thus the contraction range may last longer. But should levels of resistance in the mid/high 120 becomes violated, extension to and through 212.90 must be accounted for - then with coming targets at 124.10 & 126.40 coming into sight. Long-term supports are located at 115.60, 111.90/107.90 an at 105.50/100.80.
GBP/USD: The Jan bearish candle was last month to a large extent neutralized by a potentially bullish medium term 'inside-month'. Should last wee's potentially short-term bearish print be overruled by extension beyond 1.5555, extension towards the 1.58-area must be accounted for before serious selling resumes. On the downside, refs are 1.4950 & 1.4810 should not be let out of sight (and further down, 1.4230 should also be kept in the coroner of the eye).
AUD/USD: The market seems to pay some attention to the long-term stretch (as defined by the sheer distance to a 21month exponential moving average). But monthly mid-body resistance level (0.7989) and an earlier low are 0.8070 ought to cap upside attempts. More resistance is located in a broader 0.8660/0.9510-zone. Targets below are located at 0.7280 & 0.7090.
