As we noted yesterday, this week is shaping up to be an important one
for the euro from a near-term timing perspective as various cyclical
relationships will be aligning over the next couple of days. The same
can be said about GBP/USD as the exchange rate has similar influences
these next few days. Our view is the same in the sense that if Cable is
going to see a quick and orderly resumption of the downtrend then this
is probably where it should happen. Continued strength in the pound into
the latter part of this week through key resistance at 1.5440 would
serve to undermine these negative cyclical influences and set the stage
for a deeper correction higher over the next couple of weeks into the
next important ‘turn window’ eyed around the first week of March.
- EUR/USD is in consolidation mode near the 3rd square root relationship of the year’s low
- Our near-term trend bias remains positive while above 1.1315
- Interim resistance is seen around 1.1445, but a move through 1.1515 is really required to signal that a more meaningful extension higher is underway
- An important turn window is eyed here
- A close below 1.1315 would turn us negative on the exchange rate
Instrument | Support 2 | Support 1 | Spot | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
EUR/USD | 1.1315 | 1.1360 | 1.1405 | 1.1445 | 1.1515 |