Strong numbers, strong markets
the recent escalation of various geopolitical crises could touch the DAX little. But even some worse than expected leading economic indicators from Germany left the stockbrokers cold. There could be good reasons.
Crises and skepticism let the exchanges cold
First, the facts: On Friday, the much acclaimed ifo business climate fell more than expected. The week before, there was already a significant drop in the ZEW Economic Sentiment - the sixth in a row (!). In both cases, analysts, however, rather came from a quasi-stagnation of values.
The DAX but it was hard to get worked up. For the ifo business climate, but especially the ZEW economic expectations are sentiment indicators that are collected through surveys among decision makers in companies (ifo) and financial market experts (ZEW). And since there act "only" people, these can of course also influence of the negative sentiment or reporting on the recent crises.
Other figures, however, are objective, such as the quarterly results of companies. In the U.S. reporting season is now running at full speed in the previous week alone gave 145 companies (= 29.4%) from the S & P 500 their results today. This week, more 149 (= 29.8%) will be added. So then 380 companies and 76% of the S & P 500 have submitted their reports. It can be already a fairly accurate picture of the reporting season draw. And it looks quite very neat.
U.S. companies with positive quarterly results
Of the companies that have submitted their numbers until last Friday, surpassing analysts' expectations 69.4% in earnings (per share) and 63.8% in sales. The profit expectations were exceeded on average by 9.8%, the sales expectations by 5.4%.
All these values are well above the long term average, but especially about the rather mixed to poor results in recent quarters. Thus, there was apparently actually a noticeable catch-up effect after the weather conditions very weak first quarter. This induced the analysts are already raising their estimates for the rest of the year noticeably (see chart).
S & P
Source: Standard & Poor's
From the expected stabilization of earnings expectations for 2014 therefore a strong recovery has become even more!
Who would have thought: Double-digit earnings growth in Europe
This is true but not only for the United States. Also for the company in the European STOXX 600 is a double-digit profit growth is even expected. In addition, the views of the companies are gradually more confident - even if they are still far away to spray ebullient optimism ...
For investors, these positive results could well have been reason enough access for shares further and ignore the technical chart and geopolitical uncertainties. Further consolidates this positive image and reach the markets by also sustainable new highs, then so the rally could be quite resumed.
Written by Memselftrade
