July 6, 2026
Spot Rates
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EUR/USD: 1.1431
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USD/JPY: 161.92
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GBP/USD: 1.3340
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USD/CHF: 0.8042
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USD/CAD: 1.4204
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AUD/USD: 0.6934
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NZD/USD: 0.5687
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EUR/GBP: 0.8565
Monday (July 6)
EUR/USD
Option Expiries
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1.1300 (€830M)
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1.1400 (€2.2B)
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1.1450 (€1.4B)
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1.1500 (€2.4B)
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1.1600 (€1.0B)
Current spot is 1.1431.
The largest expiry is:
1.1500 (€2.4B)
Other notable strikes include:
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1.1400 (€2.2B)
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1.1450 (€1.4B)
With spot trading between 1.1400 and 1.1450, option-related flows may gradually pull price toward the 1.1450–1.1500 area.
USD/JPY
Option Expiries
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160.00 ($2.5B)
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160.50 ($2.5B)
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161.00 ($1.1B)
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161.50 ($970M)
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161.75 ($3.1B)
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162.00 ($1.3B)
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163.00 ($840M)
Current spot is 161.92.
The largest expiry is:
161.75 ($3.1B)
Additional major strikes include:
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160.00 ($2.5B)
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160.50 ($2.5B)
With spot trading between 161.75 and 162.00, price is likely to remain centered within this range heading into the New York cut.
USD/CHF
Option Expiry
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0.8100 ($590M)
Current spot is 0.8042.
The strike is relatively distant, so near-term influence should be limited.
AUD/USD
Option Expiries
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0.6885 (AUD 720M)
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0.7000 (AUD 750M)
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0.7025 (AUD 560M)
Current spot is 0.6934.
Spot is positioned roughly midway between 0.6885 and 0.7000, suggesting range trading within the 0.6900s.
Tuesday (July 7)
EUR/USD
Option Expiries
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1.1300 (€700M)
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1.1350 (€1.5B)
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1.1400 (€1.0B)
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1.1425 (€600M)
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1.1440 (€530M)
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1.1500 (€2.8B)
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1.1590 (€720M)
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1.1600 (€730M)
Current spot is 1.1431.
The largest expiry is:
1.1500 (€2.8B)
Other notable strikes include:
-
1.1350 (€1.5B)
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1.1400 (€1.0B)
With spot trading near 1.1440, option flows may continue pulling EUR/USD toward 1.1500.
USD/JPY
Option Expiries
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160.00 ($850M)
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161.00 ($700M)
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161.50 ($720M)
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162.00 ($2.5B)
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162.50 ($780M)
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163.00 ($740M)
Current spot is 161.92.
The largest expiry is:
162.00 ($2.5B)
With spot almost exactly at this strike, 162.00 is likely to act as the primary magnet into the New York cut.
USD/CHF
Option Expiry
-
0.8115 ($600M)
Current spot is 0.8042.
The strike remains some distance away, limiting its short-term impact.
USD/CAD
Option Expiry
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1.4100 ($740M)
Current spot is 1.4204.
Given the distance from spot, near-term influence is expected to remain limited.
AUD/USD
Option Expiry
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0.6930 (AUD 590M)
Current spot is 0.6934.
With spot almost exactly at the strike, 0.6930 is expected to act as the primary anchor into the New York cut.
Key Market Themes
EUR/USD
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1.1500 (€2.4B) — Monday
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1.1500 (€2.8B) — Tuesday
USD/JPY
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161.75 ($3.1B) — Monday
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162.00 ($2.5B) — Tuesday
AUD/USD
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0.6930 — Tuesday
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0.7000 — Monday
Trading Outlook
EUR/USD
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Monday: Focus on a move toward 1.1450–1.1500.
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Tuesday: 1.1500 remains the dominant magnet.
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1.1400 should provide initial support on pullbacks.
USD/JPY
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Monday: Expect range trading between 161.75 and 162.00.
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Tuesday: 162.00 is likely to remain the primary anchor.
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Consolidation around the 162 level is favored ahead of the New York option cut.
AUD/USD
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Expect price to remain centered around 0.6930.
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0.7000 becomes the next upside target if bullish momentum develops.
Summary
The dominant theme in the options market is EUR/USD, where 1.1500 carries the largest expiries on both Monday (€2.4B) and Tuesday (€2.8B). With spot already trading relatively close, option-related flows are likely to keep attracting price toward the 1.1500 area into the New York cut.
For USD/JPY, Monday features a major expiry at 161.75 ($3.1B), while Tuesday shifts the focus to 162.00 ($2.5B). Since spot is already trading near these strikes, price is likely to remain contained within the 161.75–162.00 range.
Meanwhile, AUD/USD has a nearby expiry at 0.6930, suggesting relatively stable price action centered around current levels.
