Trend Risk Monitor

TREND RISK MONITOR EA - USER GUIDE

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1. OVERVIEW

The Trend Risk Monitor is not a trading robot that opens new positions. Instead, it is a sophisticated risk management utility designed to work alongside another Expert Advisor (EA) on your trading account.

Its primary purpose is to actively monitor trades opened by a specific EA (identified by a "Magic Number") and provide a real-time assessment of the market risk associated with each open position. It displays this information in a clear, on-chart dashboard and can be configured to take protective actions automatically, such as closing high-risk trades.

This tool helps you to:

  • Visually understand the risk level of your active trades.

  • Identify when positions are trading against a strong market trend.

  • Protect your account from sudden, volatile market moves.

  • Enforce a maximum floating drawdown limit.

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2. HOW RISK IS CALCULATED

The EA calculates a risk score for each position on a scale of 0 to 100. This score is determined by a weighted average of five key market factors:

  • Trend Strength (25% weight): Measures how consistently the price is staying on one side of a Moving Average on the 5-minute (M5) chart. A strong, confirmed trend is considered less risky if your trade is aligned with it.

  • H4 Momentum (25% weight): Looks for large, consecutive candles on the 4-hour (H4) chart. Two or more large candles in the same direction signal a potentially over-extended and risky market.

  • Price Speed (20% weight): Calculates the current price movement in pips per hour. Abnormally high speed indicates volatility and increased risk.

  • Volume Spikes (15% weight): Detects unusual spikes in trading volume on the M5 chart, which can precede sharp reversals or volatile moves.

  • Pullback Time (15% weight): Measures how long the market has been moving in one direction without a significant pullback. A market that hasn't had a correction for a long time is at higher risk of a sharp reversal.

The final risk score is then adjusted based on the position's direction relative to the M5 trend.

  • Positions trading with the trend have their risk score significantly reduced.

  • Positions trading against the trend have their risk score significantly increased.

The score is then categorized into three simple levels: LOW, MEDIUM, and HIGH.

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3. THE DASHBOARD

The EA displays a dashboard on the top-left corner of your chart.

  • Trend: Shows the current M5 trend direction (BULLISH/BEARISH/SIDEWAYS) and its strength percentage.

  • Speed: Displays the current price speed in pips per hour.

  • H4 Momentum: Shows the risk percentage from the H4 momentum analysis.

  • Drawdown: The total floating profit/loss for all monitored positions in your account's currency.

  • Open Positions: Lists each monitored position, showing its type (BUY/SELL), ticket number, current profit, and its calculated risk level (LOW, MED, HIGH). The color corresponds to the risk level (Green = Low, Yellow = Medium, Red = High).

  • Action: Provides a clear, color-coded recommendation based on the highest risk detected among your positions.

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4. INPUT SETTINGS EXPLAINED

These are the settings you can configure when you attach the EA to a chart.

MonitoredMagic

  • What it does: This is the most important setting. The EA will only monitor trades that have this specific magic number.

  • How to use it: Set this to the exact magic number of the trading robot whose trades you want this utility to manage.

AutoCloseLevel

  • What it does: Determines the level of automation for closing risky trades.

  • Options:

    • AUTO_CLOSE_DISABLED: The EA will only display risks and recommendations on the dashboard but will never close a trade automatically based on its risk score.

    • AUTO_CLOSE_HIGH: The EA will automatically close any position whose risk level becomes HIGH.

    • AUTO_CLOSE_MED_HIGH: The EA will automatically close any position whose risk level is MEDIUM or HIGH.

MaxDrawdownUSD

  • What it does: Acts as an account-level equity protector for the monitored trades. If the total floating loss (drawdown) of all monitored positions combined reaches this value, the EA will immediately close all of them.

  • How to use it: Enter a positive value (e.g., 25.0 for $25). To disable this feature, set it to 0.

RefreshSeconds

  • What it does: Sets the update frequency for the dashboard and all risk calculations.

  • How to use it: A value of 1 (second) provides the best responsiveness, which is crucial for the catastrophic move detection. Higher values are less resource-intensive but also less responsive.

PipsPerHour

  • What it does: Defines what the EA considers a "dangerous" speed of price movement. This value is used as a benchmark in the price speed component of the risk calculation.

  • How to use it: Set a threshold in pips. If the market movement exceeds this speed, the risk score will increase. The default is 50.

CatastrophicPointsM1

  • What it does: An emergency stop-loss feature. It measures the number of points the price moves against a position on the 1-minute chart. If the price suddenly moves against a trade by this amount, the EA will immediately close that single position.

  • How to use it: The value is in points, not pips. 75 points is equal to 7.5 pips on a standard 5-digit broker. This is designed to protect against flash crashes or sudden news spikes.

MAperiod

  • What it does: The period of the Simple Moving Average (SMA) used on the M5 chart to determine the primary trend direction and strength.

  • How to use it: The default is 20, which is a common short-to-medium term trend indicator. You can adjust this to match your trading strategy's trend definition.

VolumeMultiplier

  • What it does: Sets the sensitivity for detecting a volume spike.

  • How to use it: A value of 2.0 means the volume of the current M5 bar must be at least twice the average volume of the preceding bars to be considered a risk factor. Increase this value to make it less sensitive; decrease it to make it more sensitive.


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