Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5 - page 175

Sergey Golubev
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Forecast for Q2'16 - levels for DAX Index

Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.20 20:26

DAX Index: End Of Week Technicals - daily ranging for direction

This trading week ended with some results and setups - daily ranging within 100 SMA/200 SMA waiting for direction, and ranging bearish market condition

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DAX Index

D1 price is on secondary ranging within 7-day high/low for the waiting for the dierection of the trend: the price is is located to be between 100 SMA and 200 SMA within 10,085.8 resistance and 9,762.4 support levels.


If the price will break 7-day high at 10,085.8 to above on daily close bar so the daily bullish reversal will be started.
If the price will break 7-day low at 9,762.4 from above to below so the bearish market condition will be continuing without secondary ranging up to the new bottom to be formed.

If not so the price will be on ranging for direction.

Resistance
 Support
10,085.89,762.4
10,111.69,550.8
10,519.99,471.3

SUMMARY : waiting for direction

TREND : ranging

Sergey Golubev
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Forecast for Q2'16 - levels for EUR/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.22 10:28

EURUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 22.05 - 29.05: ranging within Ichimoku cloud waiting for direction

Daily price is located to be inside Ichimoku cloud for the secondary ranging condition within the primary bullish: the price is testing 1.1179 and 1.1143 support levels to below for the daily bearish reversal with Absolute Strength indicator and Trend Strergn indicator which are estimating the bearish condition for the price ion the near future.



If D1 price will break 1.1143 support level on close bar so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bullish to the primary bullish market condition will be started.
If D1 price will break 1.1446 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the primary bullish trend will be continuing with 1.1494 level as the nearest target in this case..
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1.1446 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.1143 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging bullish to the bearish reversal
Resistance
Support
1.14461.1179
1.1494
1.1143
SUMMARY : ranging within the cloud

TREND : ranging

Sergey Golubev
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Forecast for Q2'16 - levels for Hang Seng Index (HSI)

Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.23 08:30

Hang Seng Index Technical Analysis 2016, 22.05 - 29.05: bearish ranging within narrow s/r levels waiting for breakdown or breakout

Daily price is on bearish market condition located to be below Ichimoku cloud and Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart. The price is ranging within narrow support/resistance levels waiting for breakdown or breakout of the price movement for direction of the trend to be established. Ascending triangle pattern was fomred by the price to be crossed to above for the secondary rally to be started, and Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the ranging condition to be continuing with possible bear market rally in the near future.

If D1 price will break 19,451 support level on close bar so the bearish trend will be continuing up to the next bearish target.
If D1 price will break 20,019 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started with the good possibility to the bullish reversal in the secondary ranging way.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

Resistance
Support
20,01919,566
21,666
19,451


SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : bearish

Sergey Golubev
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Forecast for Q2'16 - levels for AUD/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.23 14:27

Daily price is on breakdown with the bearish reversal:

  • descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to below for the bearish reversal;
  • the price is breaking 200-day SMA to below together with 10-day low at 0.7175 for the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition.


If the price breaks 10-day low at 0.7175 to below on close daily bar so the bearish reversal of the price movement will be started.
If the price breaks 10-day high at 0.7401 to above on the daily close bar so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be on the ranging condition waiting for direction.

Sergey Golubev
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Forecast for Q2'16 - levels for EUR/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.24 10:38

EUR/USD Technical Analysis - daily correction to the bearish reversal

Daily price is on secondary correction within the primary bullish trend: the price is crossing 100-day SMA to below with 1.1152 support level as a next target for the price to be reversed to the daily bearish market condition.

  • If the price will break 1.1464 resistance level so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
  • If price will break 1.1152 support so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.14641.1152
1.1615N/A


  • Recommendation to go short: watch close daily price to break 1.1152 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.1464 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : correction

TREND : ready to the bearish reversal

Sergey Golubev
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Forecast for Q2'16 - levels for USD/CNH

Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.25 20:17

USD/CNH Weekly Technical Analysis - ranging bullish

Weekly price is located above SMA with period 100 (100 SMA) and SMA with the period 200 (200-SMA) for the bullish market condition with the ranging within 6.5887 resistance and 6.4563 support level. The bearish reversal of the price movement is very unlikely in 2016 because of the following:

  • 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal area is located to be far from the market price at the level to be near 6.3147 support, and
  • 100 SMA is above 200 SMA for the uptrend to be continuing in the future.

Thus, there are 3 main scenarios for the price movement for this year for example:

  • If the price will break 6.5887 resistance level so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
  • If price will break 6.4563 support so the local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish market condition will be started.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
6.58876.4563
6.76816.3147


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 6.4563 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 6.5887 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging bullish

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : bullish

Sergey Golubev
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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.26 10:55

Trading News Events: U.S. Durable Goods Orders (based on the article)

What’s Expected:



"Why Is This Event Important:Even though Fed Chair Janet Yellen remains in no rush to implement higher borrowing-costs, we may see a greater dissent at the next quarterly meeting in June as a growing number of central bank officials see the U.S. economy approaching ‘full-employment.’"

Daily Targets
EURUSD D1


  • Daily price is on bullish market condition located near and above 200-day SMA reversal.
  • The price is on narrow ranging within 50.0% Fibo resistance level at 1.1371 and Fibo support level at 1.1128.
  • If the price breaks 1.1371 resistance to above on daily close bar so the bullish trend will be resumed.
  • If the price breaks 1.1128 support level to below on close bar so the reversal of the daily price movement to the primary bearish condition will be started.
  • RSI indicator is estimating the ranging condition aroud 200-day SMA to be continuing in the near future.

Intra-Day Targets
EURUSD M5


  • The price is located inside the ranging area within 200 period SMA (200 SMAS) and 100 period SMA (100 SMA) waiting for direction.
  • 200 SMA is located below the price for the bullish condition.
  • RSI indicator is estimating for the price to be on ranging bullish condition above 200 SMA area.
  • Ascending triangle pattern was fomred by the price to be crossed for the bullish trend to be continuing.
  • If the price breaks 1.1189 resistance level to above on close intra-day bar so the bullish trend will be continuing without secondary ranging up to the new 'top' resistance to be formed.
  • If the price breaks 1.1165 support level to below on close bar so the reversal of the intra-day price movement to the primary ebarish market condition may be started.
  • If the price breaks 1.1152 support level so the price will be reversed to the bearish condition with the good possibility to breakdown.

Sergey Golubev
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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.27 07:17

Fed Chair Yellen Speaks - "We do not expect any comments on the near-term"

2016-05-27 17:15 GMT | [USD - Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen Speech]

Barclays:

  • Gregory Mankiw will engage Chair Yellen in "a conversation about her groundbreaking achievements.”
  • We do not expect any comments on the near-term path of monetary policy as we believe she will wait for her recently scheduled June 6 speech to make any substantive policy comment.

==========

H4 price is located below SMA with the period 200 (200-SMA) for the primary bearish market condition for the ranging within 1.1216 resistance level and 1.1128 support level. Ascending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to above for the secondary rally to be started with 1.1242 level as a nearest target to re-enter. The bullish reversal level at 1.1348 located near and abvove 200 SMA, and if the price breaks this level to above so the bullish reversal of the intra-day price movement will be started.


  • If the price will break 1.1216 resistance level to above so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started.
  • If price will break 1.1128 support so the bearish trend will be continuing.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.12161.1128
1.1242N/A

Sergey Golubev
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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.27 10:36

Trading News Events: U.S. Gross Domestic Product (adapted from the article)

"An upward revision in the preliminary 1Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may trigger near-term selloff in EUR/USD as signs of a stronger recovery provide the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) with greater scope to implement higher borrowing-costs."

What’s Expected:



Why Is This Event Important:

"With the U.S. economy approaching ‘full-employment,’ a faster rate of growth may encourage a greater number of Fed officials to vote for a rate-hike at the next quarterly meeting in June as the central bank sees a sustainable recovery over the policy horizon."


Intra-Day Levels
EURUSD H1

The price is located below 200 SMA for the bearish market condition - price is on ranging around 100 SMA waiting for direction of the trend:

  • for the ranging bearish in case the price will be inside 100 SMA/200 SMA area, and
  • for the primary bearish trend to be continuing in case the price will be located below 100 SMA/200 SMA area.


If the price breaks 1.1174 support level on close hourly bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing up to 1.1138 as a good target to re-enter.
If the price breaks 1.1236 resistance level on close hourly bar so the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish trend will be started.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels waiting for direction.




Sergey Golubev
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Forecast for Q2'16 - levels for SILVER (XAG/USD)

Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.29 18:45

SILVER (XAG/USD) Technical Analysis 2016, 29.05 - 05.06: breaking 16.09 support level to the bearish reversal

Daily price is located near and above Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart: price is testing Senkou Span together with 16.09 support level to below for the bearish reversal to be started. Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the the ranging condition to be continuing, and Chinkou Span line broke the price to below on open daily bar for the possible bearish reversal in the near future.

If D1 price will break 16.09 support level on close bar so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If D1 price will break 17.99 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so
the price will be on ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 17.99 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 16.09 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging
Resistance
Support
17.3216.09
17.99
14.77

SUMMARY : ranging to bearish reversal

TREND : ranging