AUD/USD drops to 5-1/2 year lows (based on nasdaq article)
The Australian dollar dropped to five-and-a-half
year lows against its U.S. counterpart on Monday, as demand for the
greenback continued to receive broad support.
AUD/USD hit 0.8036 during late Asian trade, the pair's lowest
since July 2009; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.8057,
AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis January 6, 2015 Forecast (based on fxempire article)
took its clues from the US dollar this morning. The US dollar rallied
as traders listened to a slew of Federal Reserve speakers, who have all
shifted into high gear preparing the markets for interest rate increases
in the near term. The Aussie fell 34 points to trade at 0.8057 making
the RBA happy as they think the Aussie should only be valued around 75
cents. The drop in the currency is also offset by falling Chinese
manufacturing data which will mean lower exports. The Aussie is trading
at a 5 year low.
A combination of weak commodity prices and a surging US dollar were
weighing on the local currency. The key theme in the new year has been
US dollar strength and falling iron ore and coal prices. The lower
Australian dollar will benefit local producers.
Late last year, major banks cut their Australian dollar forecasts
against the greenback to reflect this recent strength. Currency analysts
at Australia’s biggest bank now expect the Aussie to fall to 78 cents
by the end of March, down from a previous forecast of 86 cents.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Rebound Hinted Above 0.80 (based on dailyfx article)
The Australian Dollar
fell to the lowest in over five years against its US namesake but
positive RSI divergence warns a rebound may be ahead. A daily close
above the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion at 0.8094 exposes the December 31
highat 0.8214. Alternatively, a turn below the 23.6% level at 0.8020 clears the way for a challenge of the 38.2% Fib at 0.8012.
Prices are wedged too closely between immediate
support and resistance barriers to justify entering a trade on the long
or short side from a risk/reward perspective. We will remain flat for now, waiting for a more attractive opportunity to present itself.
AUDUSD To Test Downtrend Resistance – Jan 6, 2015 (based on forexminute article)
AUDUSD has been trading in a steady downtrend in the past few months,
with a falling trend line connecting the latest highs on the 1-hour
time frame. The pair previously bounced off its lows and is showing
signs of a pullback to the trend line.
Using the Fibonacci retracement tool on the latest swing high on low
on the same chart shows that the 61.8% Fibonacci level lines up with the
.8150 minor psychological resistance and the trend line. This could
keep gains in check and push price back to its previous lows or to new
ones around the .8000 major psychological support.
Shorting at .8150 with a stop above the .8200 major psychological
resistance and a target of .8000 could offer close to a 3:1 return on
risk. Stochastic is almost in the overbought area, indicating that
buying pressure is weakening and that sellers could start shorting the
pair once more.
Event risks for this AUDUSD setup
include the release of the FOMC minutes mid-week, as this might shed
more light on whether or not the US central bank is ready to start
tightening monetary policy this year. Hawkish remarks could add support
for this bias and allow the pair’s downtrend to resume and strengthen.
On the other hand, cautious comments could downplay rate hike forecasts
and lead to a reversal for AUDUSD.
As for Australia, the country is set to print its building approvals
and retail sales reports later in the week. Earlier today, the trade
balance posted better than expected results. China will release its CPI
figures on Friday and possibly show another downturn in producer price
With that, the path of least resistance for this pair is to the
downside, as falling commodity prices and risk aversion are also
weighing on the Australian dollar. Continued expectations of Fed
tightening could keep the US dollar supported.
if actual > forecast (or actual data) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
[AUD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month. Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners
must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports. Export
demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers.
Australia posted a seasonally adjusted merchandise trade deficit of
A$925 million in November, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on
That beat forecasts for a shortfall of A$1.6 billion
following the upwardly revised deficit of A$877 million in October
(originally A$1.323 billion).
Exports were up 1.0 percent on month to A$27.085 billion.
Non-rural goods rose A$486 million or 3 percent, while rural goods climbed A$179 million (6 percent).
gold tumbled A$519 million (38percent), while net exports of goods
under merchanting remained steady at A$43 million. Service credits rose
Imports also collected 1.0 percent on month to A$28.010 billion.
Intermediate and other merchandise goods added A$224 million (2%) and consumption goods gained A$131 million (2 percent).
Non-monetary gold plunged A$90 million (27 percent) and capital goods
fell A$78 million (1 percent). Service debits added A$20 million.
AUDIO - Rocking Start to 2015 with Bill Henner (based on fxstreet article)
The first official trading week of 2015 under way, major moves were
going down! Oil down 5%, DOW down over 300… could this just be the
beginning?!? Market veteran Bill Henner joins Merlin for a look
at these instruments and more to get a clearer understanding of where
and when to get into these volatile moves. Bill also offer us insights
into where he sees things going in 2015.
Price & Time: EUR/USD Collapse Continues (based on dailyfx article)
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Something Interesting in Financial Video January 2015
newdigital, 2015.01.07 17:12
Strategy Video: Avoiding Stumbles on the Entry with EURUSD and EURJPY (adapted from dailyfx article)
The first step to any active trade is execution - and it is often the
occasion for our first mistake to be made. Most traders will experience a
period where they are too conservative ("gun-shy") with taking
otherwise good trades and/or are too aggressive ("hasty") in jumping on
dubious setups. The best solution to this common malady is approaching
each setup with a plan - including a 'checklist' for execution. There
are a few other aspects - the opportunity's time frame, your risk
tolerance, viable alternatives - that go into the equation as well. We
discuss conviction in trade execution using my views on EURUSD and
EURJPY as examples in today's Strategy Video.
Intraday Outlooks For AUD/USD (based on efxnews article)
Fed officials rarely comment on the decisions taken by counterparts
abroad. Yet the latest minutes included several references to the weight
US officials and market participants are placing on new actions to
counteract slow growth outside the US. The references amounted to a
subtle warning that markets could respond negatively if the foreign
policymakers, particularly the ECB, don’t follow through on
Officials “regarded the international situation as an important
source of downside risks to domestic real activity and employment,” the
Fed minutes said. They added that the risks were particularly serious
“if foreign policy responses were insufficient.”
Consider decreasing a short position. With five waves
down from the wave 4 peak, a developing falling wedge (terminating
pattern) and a possible bullish divergence are all factors that speaks
in favor of considering taking profit on shorts. A break above the
November top line will probably trigger buying and a quick move to
0.8216. Also our fulfilled AUD/NZD target (see yday TA) helps forming a
base for the AUD.
newdigital, 2015.01.09 05:24
Price & Time: "Overlooked" Symmetry in AUD/USD