Press review - page 99

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

Trading the News: German Unemployment Change (based on dailyfx article)

  • German Unemployment to Decline for Three Straight Month
  • Unemployment Reported to Hold at 6.8% for Third Month

Another 10.0K drop in German Unemployment may spur a bullish reaction in the EURUSD as it limit’s the European Central Bank’s (ECB) scope to further embark on its easing cycle at the March 6 meeting.

What’s Expected:

Time of release: 02/27/2014 8:55 GMT, 3:55 EST
Primary Pair Impact: EURUSD
Expected: -10K
Previous: -28K
Forecast: -10K to 10K

Why Is This Event Important:

With the ECB interest rate decision quickly approaching, positive developments coming out of Europe’s largest economy may limit the downside risk for the single currency, but the Governing Council may have little choice but to implement more non-standard measures this year amid the persistent threat for disinflation.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish Euro Trade: German Unemployment Falls 10.0K or Greater

  • Need green, five-minute candle following the report to consider a long Euro trade
  • If the market reaction favors a bullish EURUSD trade, buy with two position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry with at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to cost on remaining position once initial target is met; set reasonable limit
Bearish Euro Trade: Labor Report Disappoints
  • Need red, five-minute candle following the release to look at a short EURUSD entry
  • Implement same setup as the bullish Euro trade, just in reverse


Euro to Rebound as Unemployment Declines- Former Support in Focus
Euro to Rebound as Unemployment Declines- Former Support in Focus
  • David Song
  • www.dailyfx.com
Another 10.0K drop in German Unemployment may spur a bullish reaction in the EURUSD as it limit’s the European Central Bank’s (ECB) scope to further embark on its easing cycle at the March 6 meeting. With the ECB interest rate decision quickly approaching, positive developments coming out of Europe’s largest economy may limit the downside...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

2013-02-27 07:45 GMT (or 08:45 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - French Consumer Confidence]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

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French Consumer Confidence 85 vs. 86 forecast

French consumer confidence fell unexpectedly last month, official data showed on Thursday.

In a report, INSEE said that French Consumer Confidence fell to 85, from 86 in the preceding month.

Analysts had expected French Consumer Confidence to remain unchanged at 86 last month.

Insee - Indicator - In February 2014, households’ confidence decreased slightly (-1 point)
Insee - Indicator - In February 2014, households’ confidence decreased slightly (-1 point)
  • www.insee.fr
In February 2014, households’ confidence decreased slightly. The synthetic confidence index lost one point compared to January. Personal situation Past financial situation : increasing slightly In February, households’ opinion of their past financial situation increased by 2 points. However, their appreciation of their future financial...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

2013-02-27 08:00 GMT (or 09:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - Spain GDP]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

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Spanish GDP 0.2% vs. 0.3% forecast

Spain’s gross domestic product rose less-than-expected last month, official data showed on Thursday.

In a report, Instituto Nacional de Estadistica said that Spanish GDP rose to 0.2%, from 0.3% in the preceding month.

Analysts had expected Spanish GDP to rise 0.3% last month.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

2013-02-27 13:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)

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U.S. Durable Goods Orders Drop 1% Amid Weak Aircraft Demand

While the Commerce Department released a report on Thursday showing a drop in new orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods in the month of January, orders unexpectedly rose when excluding transportation equipment.

The report said durable goods orders fell by 1.0 percent in January after tumbling by a revised 5.3 percent in December.

Economists had expected orders to drop by about 1.6 percent compared to the 4.2 percent decrease that had been reported for the previous month.

The drop in durable goods orders was largely due to weakness in demand for transportation equipment, which is typically very volatile.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

AUDUSD Technical Analysis (based on dailyfx article)

  • AUD/USD remains on a long term downtrend
  • The daily Aussie chart lacks directional bias
  • Wait for a break of support or resistance before entering the trade

There has been no question that the Australian Dollar is trading in a long-term downtrend against the US Dollar since the pair broke below the 2.5 year low in June of 2013. AUD/USD then continued to set new 3-year lows in January 2014, but only after posting a healthy 50% pullback of the original move lower. However, with a second pullback of the downtrend underway, traders must now consider if and when to enter the possible continuation of the downtrend.



AUD/USD continues to trade above the upper trend channel, the pair tested and failed to break above the 2-month high at .9086, which may scare traders away from trying to place bets on AUD/USD rising further.

Traders looking to short the Aussie against the greenback should wait for a convincing daily close below support by the upward trendline, while those expecting a further pullback to the long-term downward trendline from the weekly chart should wait for a daily close above the January high.


Entering the AUD/USD Pullback Is All About Timing
Entering the AUD/USD Pullback Is All About Timing
  • www.dailyfx.com
Although the Aussie remains on a long-term downtrend, traders may still wait for price action to confirm the pullback is over before re-entering short…
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

2013-02-28 00:00 GMT (or 01:00 MQ MT5 time) | [NZD - Business Confidence]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

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NZ business confidence at highest level in almost 20 years

New Zealand business confidence rose to its highest level in almost 20 years in February, indicating strong economic growth this year.

A net 70.8 percent of firms are optimistic about general business conditions this month, up from 64.1 percent in December and the highest level since March 1994, according to the ANZ Business Outlook survey. The New Zealand dollar jumped as high as 83.95 US cents from 83.61 cents immediately before the 1pm release, and was recently trading at 83.93 cents.

Firms seeing a pickup in their own business activity rose to 58.5 percent from 53.5 percent in December, the highest reading since June 1994. Expected profitability of 44.6 percent is up from 39.7 percent in December and at the highest level since April 1994.

A net 32.4 percent expect to hire more staff, up from 24.7 percent in December and the highest level December 1992, while investment intentions at 35.2 percent is up from a previous reading of 21.8 percent and the strongest since March 1994.

Business outlook | ANZ
  • www.anz.co.nz
Business outlook
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  
Trading the News: Canada Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (based on dailyfx article)

A slowdown in Canada’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) may heighten the bearish sentiment surrounding the Canadian dollar as it raises the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) scope to cut the benchmark interest rate later this year.

What’s Expected:

Time of release
: 02/28/2014 13:30 GMT, 8:30 EST
Primary Pair Impact: USDCAD
Expected: 2.6%
Previous: 2.7%
Forecast: 2.5% to 2.6%

Why Is This Event Important:

In light of the protracted recovery, Governor Stephen Poloz may take additional measures to encourage a ‘soft landing,’ and a material shift in the policy outlook may produce fresh highs in the USDCAD as the Federal Reserve remains poised to discuss another $10B taper in March.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bearish CAD Trade: GDP Report Shows Marked Slowdown in Growth

  • Need green, five-minute candle after the GDP report to consider long USDCAD entry
  • If the market reaction favors a short Canadian dollar trade, establish long with two position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from cost; use at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit
Bullish CAD Trade: Growth Rate Rises 2.6% or Greater
  • Need red, five-minute candle following the release to look at a short USDCAD trade
  • Carry out the same setup as the bearish CAD trade, just in the opposite direction

Potential Price Targets For The Release

  • Lack of Momentum to Close Above 1.1150 to Highlight Lower High
  • Relative Strength Index Retains Long-Term Bullish Momentum
  • Interim Resistance: 1.1194 Pivot to 1.1230 (50.0% expansion)
  • Interim Support: 1.0900 Pivot to 1.0930 (61.8% expansion)

USDCAD M5 : 34 pips price movement by CAD - GDP news event :


USDCAD to Eye Fresh Highs on Dismal 4Q Canada GDP Report
USDCAD to Eye Fresh Highs on Dismal 4Q Canada GDP Report
  • David Song
  • www.dailyfx.com
A slowdown in Canada’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) may heighten the bearish sentiment surrounding the Canadian dollar as it raises the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) scope to cut the benchmark interest rate later this year. In light of the protracted recovery, Governor Stephen Poloz may take additional measures to encourage a ‘soft landing,’ and a...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

2013-02-28 10:00 GMT (or 11:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - CPI]

if actual > forecast = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

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Eurozone Inflation Remains Stable In February

Eurozone inflation came in at 0.8 percent for the third consecutive month in February, flash estimate from Eurostat showed Friday. The rate was forecast to slow to 0.7 percent.

Inflation has stayed below the European Central Bank's target of 'below, but close to 2 percent' for the thirteenth consecutive month and matched a four-year low.

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

GOLD Fundamentals (based on dailyfx article)

Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Neutral

  • Copper Extends Declines, Gold Falters At Resistance Ahead Of US Data
  • Gold Prices Poised for Test of Key Price Ceiling



Gold at Resistance Heading Into March- All Eyes on Central Banks, NFPs
Gold at Resistance Heading Into March- All Eyes on Central Banks, NFPs
  • Michael Boutros
  • www.dailyfx.com
Gold prices were virtually unchanged on the week with prices holding just below key resistance to trade at $1322 ahead of the New York close on Friday. Prices have remained well supported throughout the month as softening data out of the US & China kept pressure on the greenback. Equity markets seemed unfazed however with all three major US...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

AUDUSD Fundamentals (based on dailyfx article)

Fundamental Forecast for Australian Dollar: Bearish

  • Monetary Policy Outlook in Focus as Aussie Dollar Tracks Yield Spreads
  • RBA Standstill, Firming US News-Flow May Amount to AUD/USD Selling



Australian Dollar at Risk on Shifting Monetary Policy Bets
Australian Dollar at Risk on Shifting Monetary Policy Bets
  • Ilya Spivak
  • www.dailyfx.com
with a slew of catalysts on the domestic and the global front due to cross the wires. February’s AUD/USD slide closely mirrored deterioration in the spread between Australian and US front-end yields. This suggests relative monetary policy considerations are the driving force at play and offers a prism through which to view incoming news-flow...