AUDUSD Technical Analysis 2014 13.04 - 20.04: Bullish
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newdigital, 2014.04.13 22:21
During Friday’s trading session AUD/USD traded within the range of 0.9364-0.9426 and closed at 0.9398.
Fundamental viewRetail sales in the United States probably increased 0.8% in March on a monthly basis, according to the median forecast by experts. In February sales rose 0.3%. The report on retail sales reflects the dollar value of merchandise sold within the retail trade by taking a sampling of companies, operating in the sector of selling physical end products to consumers. The retail sales report encompasses both fixed point-of-sale businesses and non-store retailers, such as mail catalogs and vending machines. US Census Bureau, which is a part of the Department of Commerce surveys about 5 000 companies of all sizes, from huge retailers such as Wal-Mart to independent small family firms.
US core retail sales (retail sales ex autos) probably rose 0.5% in March compared to a month ago, following a 0.3% increase in February. This indicator removes large ticket prices and historical seasonality of automobile sales.
The retail sales index is considered as a coincident indicator, thus, it reflects the current state of the economy. It is also considered a pre-inflationary indicator, which investors can use in order to reassess the probability of an interest rate hike or cut by the Federal Reserve Bank. In addition, this indicator provides key information regarding consumer spending trends. Consumer expenditures, on the other hand, account for almost two-thirds of nation’s total Gross Domestic Product. Therefore, a larger than expected increase in sales would heighten the appeal of US dollar. The official report is due out at 12:30 GMT on Monday.
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newdigital, 2014.04.12 18:25
AUDUSD Fundamentals (based on dailyfx article)
Fundamental Forecast for Australian Dollar: Neutral- Australian Dollar Hits Five Month High on Firming RBA Policy Bets
- Soft Chinese Economic Data May Undermine Aussie in the Week Ahead
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newdigital, 2014.04.14 12:22
AUD/USD almost unchanged in light trade
The Australian dollar was almost unchanged against its U.S. counterpart in light trade on Monday, as demand for the greenback remained under pressure amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will not rise interest rates for some time.
AUD/USD hit 0.9376 during late Asian trade, the session low; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9391, easing 0.07%.
The pair was likely to find support at 0.9336, the low of April 9 and resistance at 0.9461, the high of April 10 and a four-and-a-half month high.
The greenback briefly strengthened after data on Friday showed that U.S. producer prices rose 0.5% in March, the largest increase in nine months and ahead of expectations for a 0.1% increase.
But the U.S. dollar remained under pressure after the minutes of the Federal Reserve's March meeting indicated that an interest rate increase is unlikely to be warranted for some time.
The Fed's March meeting minutes, released on Wednesday, showed that policymakers discussed whether to keep interest rates at record lows until inflation moves higher, and did not elaborate on a possible timeframe for when rates could start to rise.
The Aussie was higher against the euro, with EUR/AUD shedding 0.26% to 1.4737.
Later in the day, the U.S. was to produce data on retail sales.
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newdigital, 2014.04.14 15:26
2014-04-14 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Retail Sales]
- past data is 0.7%
- forecast data is 0.8%
- actual data is 1.1% according to the latest press release
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
==========
U.S. Retail Sales Jump 1.1% In March Amid Improved Weather
With Americans heading back to the stores after the unusually rough winter, the Commerce Department released a report on Monday showing that U.S. retail sales rose by more than expected in the month of March.
The report showed that retail sales jumped by 1.1 percent in March after climbing by an upwardly revised 0.7 percent in February.
Economists had expected sales to increase by about 0.9 percent compared to the 0.3 percent increase originally reported for the previous month.
Peter Boockvar, managing director at the Lindsey Group, said, "Retail sales in March showed a nice bounce back after the weather influenced previous months."
The stronger than expected retail sales growth was partly due to a notable increase in sales by motor vehicle and parts dealers, which surged up by 3.1 percent in March after climbing by 2.5 percent in February.
Excluding the increase in auto sales, retail sales still rose by 0.7 percent in March compared to economist estimates for an increase of 0.5 percent.
The report also showed a significant rebound in sales by building materials and supplies dealers, which rose by 1.8 percent in March after falling by 0.6 percent in February.
General merchandise stores and non-store retailers also saw strong sales growth, with sales rising by 1.9 percent and 1.7 percent, respectively.
On the other hand, the report said sales at electronic and appliance stores dropped by 1.6 percent. Sales at gas stations also fell by 1.3 percent.
Core retail sales, which exclude autos, gasoline, and building materials, increased by 0.8 percent in March compared to economist estimates for 0.5 percent growth.
"Bottom line, consumers clearly responded to the winter thaw and the sales gains m/o/m were pretty broad based," Boockvar said.
"With the upside to the core portion of the data, Q1 GDP estimates should go up by about .1-.2 but still may print below 2%," he added. "The sustainability of the sales gains, as opposed to just a onetime weather rebound, will now be the focus."
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AUDUSD M5 : 13 pips price movement by USD - Retail Sales news event
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newdigital, 2014.04.14 08:05
Australian Dollar Gains against the Dollar on Positive Economic Sentiment
The Australian dollar was trading higher on Monday morning, fuelled by
growing optimism about the prospect of the local economy and the
probability that the euro zone will inject more stimulus to boost the
economy.
As of 7.00 AEST on Monday, the currency was trading at 93.90 U.S. cents,
compared to 93.75 cents on April 11. This followed European Central
Bank President Mario Draghi’s comments that he will move in to intervene
if the euro strengthens any further, reported the Sydney Morning Herald.
The probability that the euro zone interest rate may be lowered or an
economic stimulus injected is the core focus of forex markets, said OM
Financial senior client advisor Stuart Ive.
"He's indicated that the ECB is ready to act and the euro has opened 50
points lower (against the US dollar) and the Aussie is considerably
higher against the euro," Mr Ive said from Wellington.
The Aussie was trading at 67.83 cents per euro, compared with Friday’s
close of 67.47. The Australian dollar surged past 94.50 U.S. cents
after reports indicated that the country’s unemployment rate in March
plunged 0.3 percentage points to stand at 5.8 percent.
Ive added that the positive local economic prospects will prop up the Australian dollar, which fell slightly on April 11.
"Since the start of this year, the economic data for Australia has been slowly getting better," he said.
"The employment data last week certainly surprised the markets, so
that's two good numbers on the trot. It's always good news when that
happens.
"It shows there is a bit of strength coming through on the Australian
economy and that will always underpin the Australian dollar."
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newdigital, 2014.04.16 08:39
2014-04-16 02:00 GMT (or 04:00 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - GDP]
- past data is 7.7%
- forecast data is 7.3%
- actual data is 7.4% according to the latest press release
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for CNY in our case)
==========
China's gross domestic product expanded 7.4 percent on year in the first quarter of 2014, the government said on Wednesday.
That topped expectations for 7.3 percent following the 7.7 percent gain in the previous three months.
On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, GDP added 1.4 percent - shy of expectations for 1.5 percent and slowing from 1.8 percent in the three months prior.
The government also revealed that industrial production gained 8.8 percent on year in March - missing forecasts for 9.0 percent but up from 8.6 percent in February.
Retail sales climbed 12.2 percent, beating expectations for 12.1 percent and up from 11.8 percent in the previous month.
Fixed-asset investment climbed an annual 17.6 percent - missing forecasts for 18.0 percent and down from 17.9 percent a month earlier.
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AUDUSD M5 : 25 pips price movement by CNY - GDP news event
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newdigital, 2014.04.17 08:27
2014-04-17 01:30 GMT (or 03:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - NAB Business Confidence]
- past data is 8
- forecast data is n/a
- actual data is 6 according to the latest press release
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
==========
Business confidence still high, says NAB
Things are getting better for Australian businesses, with confidence still at elevated levels and trading conditions on the improve.
The National Australia Bank business survey for the March quarter found business confidence fell two points to six points.
A reading above zero indicates optimists outweigh pessimists.
Despite a dip in confidence in the first three months of the year, it was still a positive result, NAB chief economist Alan Oster said.
"Confidence has been generally trending higher across the board and is still positive for most industries," he said.
"Mining is still the only sector to have a negative confidence index.
"An anticipated decline in many commodity prices, coinciding with rising global supplies and a moderating demand outlook for China, is weighing on mining firms."
Business conditions rose to their highest levels in 18 months, up two index points to zero.
Mr Oster said business conditions were still soft however, despite gradual improvement.
"Forward indicators point to further modest improvements over coming months, but still indicate below trend rates of growth and soft demand for labour," he said.
"Despite a lift in trading conditions, weak demand continues to be the biggest constraint on output, with almost 60 per cent of firms reporting a want of sales and orders.
"This may start to ease over coming quarters with firms starting to report improving forward orders."
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AUDUSD M5 : 7 pips price movement by AUD - NAB Business Confidence news event
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newdigital, 2014.04.18 10:48
AUDUSD Technical Analysis (adapted from this article)
- AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
- Support: 0.9325 (23.6% Fib ret.), 0.9242 (38.2% Fib ret.)
- Resistance: 0.9429 (trend line), 0.9460 (Apr 10 high)
The Australian Dollar declined as expected against its US counterpartafter the pair put in a Shooting Star candlestick below the 0.95 figure. The pair is now testing support at 0.9325, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break downward on a daily closing basis initially exposing the 38.2% level at 0.9242. Alternatively, a move above trend line support-turned-resistance at 0.9429 aims for the April 10 highat 0.9460.
Prices are trading too close to relevant support to make a short trade attractive from a risk/reward perspective. We will continue to stand aside for now, waiting for an actionable opportunity to present itself.
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D1 price is on bullish market condition for breaking 0.9461 resistance level for uptrend to be continuing.
H4 price is on flat within primary bullish ranging between 0.9442 resistance and 0.9363 support levels.
W1 price is crossing 0.9307 resistance level and Sinkou Span A line to be reversed from primary bearish to ranging market condition within primary bullish.
If D1 price will break 0.9461 resistance level on close bar so the bullish trend will be continuing.If not so we may see the correctio or ranging within primary bullish.
UPCOMING EVENTS (high/medium impacted news events which may be affected on AUDUSD price movement for this coming week)
2014-04-14 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Retail Sales]
2014-04-15 01:30 GMT (or 03:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - RBA Meeting Minutes]
2014-04-15 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - CPI]2014-04-15 12:45 GMT (or 14:45 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speech]
2014-04-15 13:00 GMT (or 15:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - TIC Long-Term Purchases]
2014-04-16 02:00 GMT (or 04:00 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - GDP]
2014-04-16 02:00 GMT (or 04:00 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - Industrial Production]
2014-04-16 02:00 GMT (or 04:00 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - Retail Sales]
2014-04-16 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Building Permits]
2014-04-16 16:15 GMT (or 18:15 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speech]
2014-04-17 01:30 GMT (or 03:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - NAB Business Confidence]
2014-04-17 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index]
Please note : some US (and CNY) high/medium impacted news events (incl speeches) are also affected on AUDUSD price movement
SUMMARY : bullish
TREND : bullish
Intraday Chart