EUR/USD weekly outlook: February 3 - 7 (based on investing.com article)
The dollar rose to 10-week highs against the euro on Friday as a
slowdown in the annual rate of euro zone inflation in January fuelled
fears over the threat of deflation in the euro area.
Monday, February 3
Tuesday, February 4
Wednesday, February 5
Thursday, February 6
Friday, February 7
GBP/USD weekly outlook: February 3 - 7 (based on investing.com article)
The pound ended the week lower against the broadly stronger dollar on
Friday as indications that the U.S. recovery is gaining momentum and
increased risk aversion underpinned dollar demand.
Gold Prices Start The Week Soft As Chinese Celebrate Year Of The Horse (based on kitco article)
Gold prices could struggle during a relatively quiet Asian session
as Chinese markets are closed in recognition of the new year, said
In electronic trading, Comex April gold
futures opened Sunday evening at $1,242 an ounce, a gap lower from
Friday’s electronic closing price of $1,245.60 per ounce. Prices have
managed to rally from the weak open and as of 6:47 p.m. EST, April gold
is at $1243.40 an ounce.
Analysts at ANZ Bank in Australia said that
although Chinese markets are closed for the next week, they are
expecting physical demand to remain low for at least two weeks and as a
result are forecasting lower prices.
“With the Chinese absent, the market is likely to struggle to hold rallies,” they said in a research note.
2013-02-03 00:30 GMT (or 01:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - Building Approvals]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
Australia Building Approvals Dip 2.9% In December
The total number of building permits issued in Australia in December
was down a seasonally adjusted 2.9 percent on month in December, the
Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Monday, standing at 16,141 and
falling for the third straight month.
That missed forecasts for a contraction of 0.5 percent following the 1.5 percent decline in November.
a yearly basis, building permits spiked 21.8 percent - also shy of
estimates for an increase of 23.4 percent and down from the 22.2 percent
surge in the previous month.
Stock Market Support Is Fragile - 2 Indicators And 2 Strategies For Success If 2nd Shoe Falls (adapted from forbes article)
Indicator #1 – The headlines
Here are the many media descriptions of last week’s and January’s market
performance: Stumble, tumble, decline, fall, drop, sink, sell-off, slip
and slide. Notice what’s missing: “Dip.” The market is now beyond that
shallow move. On the other hand, except in the eyes of a few, the more
severe descriptors are missing – like dive, plunge and crash.
Indicator #2 – The 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs)
In 2013 and so far in 2014, most stocks and the stock market have tracked the 50-day SMA.
Investment strategy #1 – Don’t act too early
To accomplish the goal of buying low, wait until both indicators show
worry has ramped up to the level of questioning stocks’ desirability. If
stocks drop anew, the sense likely will be that something is amiss –
not that we are simply having a normal shakeout following an
exceptionally fine period.
Investment strategy #2 – Act quickly
When stocks or the market run into fundamental problems, quick bounce
backs seldom follow price drops. Instead, it takes time for the future
outlook to brighten before stock buying picks up. However, a drop in a
bull market, growth period can have a bounce back because the price fall
is investor-driven, and that can be reversed quickly.
2013-02-03 08:15 GMT (or 09:15 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - Spanish Manufacturing PMI]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for EUR in our case)
Spanish Manufacturing Expands On Production, Orders
The Spanish manufacturing sector started 2014 on a positive footing, Markit Economics said Monday.
seasonally adjusted Markit Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 52.2 in
January from 50.8 in December. Moreover, the improvement in operating
conditions in January was the strongest since April 2010.
rate of growth in manufacturing output accelerated in January and was
the fastest in close to three-and-a-half years. Total new business also grew at a sharper pace, with some panellists highlighting the impact of rising new export orders.
Gold price 'to average $1,220 in 2014'
The gold price will average $1,219 an ounce this year, according to a survey
The analysts expect the gold price to range between $1,067 and $1,379 this
year, a report compiled by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA)
Yesterday's gold price according to the LBMA's afternoon London "fixing"
Gold ended 2013 at $1,202, 28pc lower than at the beginning of the year,
bringing to an end 12 consecutive years of price growth.
The most optimistic prediction for the gold price this year came from Martin
Murenbeeld of Dundee Capital Markets in Canada, who said the price could go
as high as $1,550, although he put the bottom of its possible price range at
2013-02-03 09:30 GMT (or 10:30 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - Manufacturing PMI]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for GBP in our case)
manufacturing PMI grows for tenth consecutive month
manufacturing grew for a tenth consecutive month in January according
to the latest PMI figures, with new orders and employment also rising.
Markit’s UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI),
a survey compiled of more than 600 industrial companies, slid to 56.7
in January from December’s 57.2.
Despite the UK’s PMI hitting a three-month low, it was
comfortably above the survey’s long-run average of 51.3, suggesting a
strong start for the economy in the first quarter of 2014.
“Although the pace of output expansion has cooled slightly in recent
months, growth is still tracking at one of the highest rates in the
22-year survey history,” said Rob Dobson, senior economist at PMI
I never know about this fundamental indicator ... so -
January barometer - (from wikipedia) : "The January barometer is the hypothesis that stock market
performance in January (particularly in the U.S.) predicts its
performance for the rest of the year. So if the stock market rises in
January, it is likely to continue to rise by the end of December. The
January barometer was first mentioned by Yale Hirsch in 1972"
This is the page #16 of 2008 edition of this book (Stock Trader's Almanac 2008) :
This is January so ...
2013-02-03 15:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
U.S. Manufacturing Index Indicates Notably Slower Growth In January
While the Institute for Supply Management released a report on
Monday showing modest growth in U.S. manufacturing activity in the month
of January, the pace of growth slowed much more than economists had
The ISM said its purchasing managers index fell
to 51.3 in January from a revised 56.5 in December. A reading above 50
indicates continued growth in the manufacturing sector, but economists
had expected the index to show a much more modest decrease to a reading
With the much steeper than expected decrease, the
purchasing managers index fell to its lowest level since hitting 50.0 in
May of 2013.