Press review - page 473

[Sergey Golubev]

Dollar Index: long-term correction to 94, or tradable crises in 2017 (based on the article)

• Breakup of the European Union 
• Military Clash Between China and the U.S. and/or U.S. Ally 
• Successful North Korean Weaponized ICBM 

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Consumer Price Index and 261 pips range price movement

2017-01-10 01:30 GMT | [CNY - CPI]

• past data is 2.3%
• forecast data is 2.2%
• actual data is 2.1% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - CPI] = Released monthly, usually about 10 days after the month ends.

==========

From rttnews article:

• "Consumer prices in China were up 2.1 percent on year in December, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday."
• "The bureau also said that producer prices jumped an annual 5.5 percent versus expectations for 4.6 percent and up from 3.3 percent in the previous month."

 

==========

USD/CNH M5: 261 pips range price movement by China Consumer Price Index news event

 

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Retail Sales and 15 pips range price movement

2017-01-10 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Retail Sales]

• past data is 0.5%
• forecast data is 0.4%
• actual data is 0.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

==========

From official report:

• "The trend estimate rose 0.4% in November 2016. This follows a rise of 0.4% in October 2016 and a rise of 0.4% in September 2016."
• "The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.2% in November 2016. This follows a rise of 0.5% in October 2016 and a rise of 0.6% in September 2016." 

==========

AUD/USD M5: 15 pips range price movement by Australian Retail Sales Index news event

 

[Sergey Golubev]

Dax Index Daily: bullish flat within narrow s/r levels waiting for direction (based on the article)

• "The current chop is taking on the shape of a bull-flag and looks poised to break soon, but may need a day or two more of filling out first. The first level of contention on a push higher comes in quickly at the 1/3 swing high at 11637, and upon breakout the DAX will begin looking to test a series of swing highs created during the descent from the record high in 2015. Top-side levels in focus: Aug ’15 – 11670, Jul ’15 – 11802, and May ’15 – 11920." 
• "Should the recent backing-and-filling turn into something more aggressive, we will look to the top of the late-December channel at 11481 and bottom of the channel around 11400 as key points of support. It would be important to hold onto the low end of that channel and the low of the day (1/2) which began the year. A drop below 11400 would be damaging for prospects of higher prices, and warrant a shift in bias towards lower prices. But for now, the DAX is acting well, global risk appetite remains relatively healthy, so we will roll with the notion of seeing higher prices in the not-too-distant future." 

[Sergey Golubev]

US Dollar Index – Too Many Questions: breaking support level at 100 to below for correction? (based on the article)

• "As is the case with EUR/USD and USD/CHF, continued failure at trend extremes warrant caution although there is nothing ‘solidly bearish’ to work with just yet. Weakness below 100.51 (December 2015 high) would suggest a broader reversal." 
• "100.51 (2015 high) is classified as a decision point (make or break level). It’s OK to lean towards the long side as long as that level holds. Weakness below would suggest a broader reversal is underway." 

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Daily Opens New High (based on the article)

• "The AUD/USD has started Tuesday’s trading breaking out to a new 2017 high at .7384. However, the pair was quickly rejected by resistance found at a 61.8% retracement value at .7385. As seen in the image below, this retracement has been measured using the distance between the December 2016 high and low, found at.7524 and .7159 respectfully. If prices continue to trade beneath this value, it may suggest a daily turn back in the direction of the pairs primary trend. Alternatively if the AUD/USD rebounds intraday, it may suggest that the pair may make an attempt to reach the next point of resistance found at .7446."
• "Intraday, the AUD/USD first turned overnight at resistance found at the R3 Camarilla pivot at .7375. Now after an early morning decline, the pair is finding support against the S3 pivot at .7325. This movement suggests that the AUD/USD is trading in a range bound environment going into the opening of US Session trading. If prices continue to bounce between these points, traders may continue to look for range trading opportunities between these values."
• "In the event that range bound conditions end, bullish breakouts may be sighted above the R4 pivot at .7399. A bullish breakout here would suggest a continuation of last week’s trend, and traders may begin to target higher highs. Initial targets may be found at .7449 by extrapolating a 1X extension of today’s 50 pip range. Alternatively in the event that the AUD/USD trades lower, bearish breakouts may begin under .7300. Again using a 1X extension of the range, initial bearish targets may be found near .7250."

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Factory production and 70 pips range price movement

2017-01-11 09:30 GMT | [GBP - Manufacturing Production]

• past data is -1.0%
• forecast data is 0.6%
• actual data is 1.3% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Manufacturing Production] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers.

==========

From official report:

• "In November 2016, total production was estimated to have increased by 2.1% compared with October 2016."
• "The monthly estimate of manufacturing increased by 1.3% in November 2016; the largest contribution came from pharmaceuticals, which increased by 11.4%. Pharmaceuticals can be highly erratic, with significant monthly changes, often due to the delivery of large contracts."

 

==========

GBP/USD M5: 70 pips range price movement by U.K. Factory production news event

 

[Sergey Golubev]

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day ranging near and above 200 SMA, daily correction to be started with 53.86 to be broken to below

2017-01-11 15:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

• past data is -7.1M
• forecast data is 0.9M
• actual data is 4.1M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

==========

"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 4.1 million barrels from the previous week."

 ==========

Crude Oil M5: ranging. The price was on breakdown by trying to cross 200 period SMA to above for the intra-day bearish reversal but it was bounce from 200 SMA value at 53.86 to above for the ranging condition to be started.

If the price breaks 54.86 resistance level to above so the bullish trend will be resumed.
If the price breaks 53.86 support so the bearish reversal will be started.
If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.

==========

Crude Oil Daily: daily correction to be started with 53.86 to be broken to below. The price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart with the secondary correction to be started by 53.86 support level to be testing to below for the correction to be continuing. Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be broken to below for the possible good breakdown, Trend Strength indicator and Absolute Strength indicator are evaluating the future possible trend as the secondary correction.

If daily price breaks 58.35 resistance on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.
If the price breaks 53.86 support level to below on close daily bar so the local downtrend as a secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.

[Sergey Golubev]

Brent Crude Oil Daily: oil prices surged more than 3% today, lifting Brent crude futures back above $55 a barrel (based on the article)

Daily price is located above 100-day SMA/200-day SMA reversal levels in the bullish area of the chart. The price was bounced from 53.84 support to above for the bullish trend to be continuing and with 57.56 nearest daily target. Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price for the good possible breakdown with the secondary correction, but today's daily bar was opened above psychological level at 50.00 so the continuing of the bullish trend is very likely in this situation.

• "Oil prices surged more than 3% today, lifting Brent crude futures back above $55 a barrel despite data that U.S. stockpiles of crude oil and gasoline swelled last week and U.S. oil production rose."
• "Rather, investors appeared focused on signs that Russia and Saudi Arabia planned to hold to promised production cuts."
• "U.S. crude futures rose $1.77 or 3.5%, to $52.59 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent, the global benchmark, rose $1.89, or 3.5%, to $55.53 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe."

[Sergey Golubev]

Dax Index Daily: possible breakout (based on the article)

Daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart within the narrow support/resistance levels:

• 11,691 resistance for the bullish trend to be resumed, and
• 11,485 support level for the secondary correction to be started.

• "Today, we are seeing the DAX drop back into the middle of the consolidation pattern, which presents the risk that we are seeing a valid rejection upon an attempt to break higher out of a bullish pattern. It’s too soon to become outwardly bearish, but this price behavior does give pause to the bulls at the moment and could become meaningful if downside levels are taken out."
• "There is a lower parallel coming into play around current market prices, keep an eye on this as the first level of support. If slope support fails, then in order to at least keep the recent consolidation phase in play the DAX should hold around the 11525 level, and if not, look for the top of the digestion period from the end of the year to act as support around 11480. A break below 11480 would quickly bring in the Jan 2 low at 11414 and bottom end of the consolidation which led to the rally to start the year. At that point the sequence of rally, consolidate, rally, would be completely broken and a sign of developing trend change, even if only for a short period of time."

The most likely scenarios are the following: the price breaks 11,691 resistance to above on close daily bar for the possible breakout, or the ranging within the levels will be continuing.