Forecast and levels for GBP - page 5

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.29 08:27

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)


GBP/USD - "The Bank of England’s monetary policy committee will likely leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.25% Thursday and make no changes to either its £435 billion asset-purchase program or its £10 billion corporate-bond buying. However, the meeting could still have an impact on GBP/USD and EUR/GBP."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.03 15:23

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Bank of England (BoE) Interest Rate Decision and range price movement 

2017-08-03 12:00 GMT | [GBP - Official Bank Rate]

  • past data is 0.25%
  • forecast data is 0.25%
  • actual data is 0.25% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Official Bank Rate] = Interest rate at which the BOE lends to financial institutions overnight. 

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From official report :

  • "The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target, and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment.  At its meeting ending on 2 August 2017, the MPC voted by a majority of 6-2 to maintain Bank Rate at 0.25%.  The Committee voted unanimously to maintain the stock of sterling non-financial investment-grade corporate bond purchases, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, at £10 billion.  The Committee voted unanimously to maintain the stock of UK government bond purchases, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, at £435 billion.  The Committee voted unanimously to close the drawdown period for the Term Funding Scheme (TFS) on 28 February 2018, as envisaged when the scheme was introduced."

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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by Bank of England (BoE) Interest Rate Decision news event 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.04 08:18

GBP/USD - daily ranging bullish; 1.3267 and 1.2817 are the keys (based on the article)

Daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: the price was bounced from 1.3267 resistance level to below for the ranging to be started with 1.2817 Senkou Span line as the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart.


  • "Those three votes for a rate hike were the most since 2011 at the MPC, and this triggered fresh fears of the BoE’s massive stimulus program wreaking dire consequences on the British economy. After the ‘sharp repricing’ in the value of GBP around Brexit and then the ensuing dovish campaign from the BoE, higher levels of inflation seemed simply mathematical as importers moved prices-higher to adjust for the -20% move-lower in GBP/USD."
  • "As those levels of inflation began to creep-higher earlier in the year, the thought that the BoE may need to adjust rates to stem those inflationary forces began to gain steam. In March, Kristin Forbes became the first vote for a rate hike at the BoE since Brexit, and she even accompanied that vote with an op-ed in The Telegraph to explain the rationale behind her decision. Then in June, inflation for the month of May came in at 2.9%; followed by those three dissenting votes that helped to bring some life in GBP/USD. When Mark Carney himself opined on the matter towards the end of the month, saying that rate hikes may be on the horizon for the U.K., the British Pound shot-higher to trade through the 1.3000 level."
  • "After a pullback was seen through the first two weeks of July, USD-weakness began to take over, and GBP/USD went into resumption of the bullish move after a 50% retracement, extending all the way up to fresh 2017 highs at 1.3269."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.05 10:14

Weekly GBP/USD Outlook: 2017, August 06 - August 13 (based on the article)

GBP/USD made another move tot he upside but was forced to retreat on the BOE’s bearishness. Will it remain the loser? The upcoming week features a mix of figures from all sectors.


  1. Halifax HPI: Monday, 7:30. A rise of 0.3% is on the cards.
  2. BRC Retail Sales Monitor: Monday, 23:01.
  3. RICS House Price Balance: Wednesday, 23:01. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors monitors the balance between areas enjoying price increases with those showing decreases. After long months in positive double digits, the most recent report for June showed a sharp drop to 7%. A small increase to 9% is predicted.
  4. Manufacturing Production: Thursday, 8:30.
  5. Goods Trade Balance: Thursday, 8:30. Britain has a wide trade deficit that is weighing on the pound. This deficit stood at 11.9 billion pounds in May and may squeeze now. A narrower deficit of 11 billion is estimated.
  6. Construction Output:  Thursday, 8:30.
  7. NIESR GDP Estimate: Thursday, 12:00. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research is a highly regarded Think-Tank. Most recently, they published upbeat assessments about the economy. looking to the second half of 2017. However, month over month, they have shown slow growth for the three months ending in June, 0.3%, in line with official numbers that were published later on.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.10 11:17

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Factory production and range price movement 

2017-08-10 09:30 GMT | [GBP - Manufacturing Production]

  • past data is -0.1%
  • forecast data is -0.1%
  • actual data is 0.0% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Manufacturing Production] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers. 

==========

From official report :

  • "In the 3 months to June 2017, the Index of Production was estimated to have decreased by 0.4% compared with the 3 months to March 2017, due mainly to a fall of 0.6% in manufacturing."
  • "Manufacturing monthly growth was flat in June 2017; the largest downward contribution came from transport equipment, which fell by 3.6%, which was partially offset by an increase of 4.0% in other manufacturing and repair."

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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by U.K. Factory production news event 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.13 09:05

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)


GBP/USD - "The British Pound is often seen, like the US Dollar and the Euro, as neither a safe-haven currency to be bought when investors are nervous nor a ‘risk-on’ currency to be acquired when their risk appetite increases. However, this broad generalization, like most, needs to be questioned. As for Brexit, little is happening right now as many UK politicians remain on holiday. Note, though, that Michael Saunders, one of the two hawks on the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee currently voting for a rate rise, was reported Friday as saying that the UK’s exit from the EU meant the economy would probably grow more slowly in the coming years than it would otherwise have done."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.20 10:33

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)


GBP/USD - "In the coming week, the key statistic will be the second reading of second-quarter GDP, which analysts will be watching for any deviation from the first estimates of 0.3% growth quarter/quarter and 1.7% year/year. Also on the calendar are the public finances on Monday and the Confederation of British Industry’s industrial and retail surveys on Tuesday and Thursday respectively."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.24 12:41

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Gross Domestic Product and range price movement 

2017-08-24 09:30 GMT | [GBP - GDP]

  • past data is 0.3%
  • forecast data is 0.2%
  • actual data is 0.3% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. 

==========

From official report :

  • "UK gross domestic product (GDP) in volume terms was estimated to have increased by 0.3% between Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) and Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2017, unrevised from the preliminary estimate."
  • "In the output measure of GDP, growth was driven by services, which grew by 0.5% between Quarter 1 and Quarter 2."

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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by U.K. Gross Domestic Product news event 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.26 07:41

Weekly GBP/USD Outlook: 2017, August 27 - September 03 (based on the article)

GBP/USD was making attempts to recover but did not go anywhere fast and found itself grinding lower. The upcoming week feature the manufacturing PMI as well as other figures.


  1. Nationwide HPI: Tuesday, 6:00. Various housing price indices have been pointing downwards, but Nationwide’s figure has shown a rise of 0.3% in July.
  2. BRC Shop Price Index: Tuesday, 23:01. The British Retail Consortium’s measure provides another gauge on consumer activity. It dropped by 0.4% y/y in June.
  3. Net Lending to Individuals: Wednesday, 8:30. The level of lending indicates economic activity but also a credit binge that the BOE fears. A rise of 5.6 billion was reported in June, higher than expected
  4. Mortgage Approvals: Wednesday, 8:30. This official figure by the BOE has shown stability in the number of approvals at 65K, for the third consecutive month in June.
  5. GfK Consumer Confidence: Wednesday, 23:01. This 2000-strong survey by GfK has been leaning lower in the past few months. A disappointing drop to -12 was reported in July, worse than projected.
  6. Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 8:30. Markit’s purchasing managers’ indicator for the manufacturing sector beat expectations and reached 55.1 points in July.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.29 09:29

GBP/USD - ranging within/around Ichimoku cloud for the direction of the strong trend to be started (based on the article)

Daily price is ranging within and around Ichimoku cloud waiting for the direction of the strong trend to be started.

If the daily price breaks 1.2942 resistance level on close bar so the bullish reversal will be started.
If the price breaks 1.2773 support level on close D1 bar so the bearish trend will be resumed.
If not so the price will be on ranging market condition within the levels.


  • "The British Pound has been on quite the rollercoaster so far in 2017. After coming into the year wrapped-up in Brexit worries, the pair began to show bullish tendencies as the prospect of rising inflation became more real. Inflation for the month of May perked all the way up to 2.8%, giving ammunition to bulls under the premise that the BoE might be forced away from their uber-dovish monetary stance. But after inflation came-in a bit tamer in June and July, those concerns began to recede into the background and when the Bank of England met earlier in the month of August, it appeared that those worries were ready to fade to black. "
  • "The British Pound was rather strong coming into August, but after the Bank of England’s Super Thursday on the second trading day of the month saw the bank insert another dovish set of comments, the pair had been sliding-lower as we came into last week’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. As we neared the start of the event, GBP/USD moved-down to a fresh six-week-low at 1.2774. But as we heard from Chair Yellen and Mario Draghi on Friday, another gust of USD-weakness took over, and GBP/USD began to rally off of last week’s lows. This produced a morning star formation that, at least so far, has led to bullish continuation up to a key zone of resistance. The price of 1.2928 is the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the most recent bullish move, taking the June low up to the August high; and 1.2960 is a batch of swing-lows that had developed after the initial re-break below 1.3000."

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