Press review - page 461

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Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and USD/CAD: U.S. Gross Domestic Product

2016-11-29 13:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official release:


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EUR/USD M5: 30 pips range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events


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USD/CAD M5: 33 pips range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events

 

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GOLD (XAU/USD) and Dax Index: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence

2016-11-29 15:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CB Consumer Confidence] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.

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From official report:

"The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had declined in October, increased significantly in November. The Index now stands at 107.1 (1985=100), up from 100.8 in October. The Present Situation Index increased from 123.1 to 130.3, while the Expectations Index improved from 86.0 last month to 91.7."

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EUR/USD M5: 37 pips range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events


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XAU/USD M5: range pips price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events


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Dax Index M5: range pips price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

 

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ANZ Business Confidence and 14 pips range price movement

2016-11-30 00:00 GMT | [NZD - ANZ Business Confidence]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - ANZ Business Confidence] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, retailers, agricultural firms, and service providers.

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From official report:


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NZD/USD M5: 14 pips range price movement by ANZ Business Confidence news event

 

Business Outlook Survey | ANZ
  • www.anz.co.nz
ANZ surveys 1,500 NZ businesses and analyses where the economy will be going over the next year. Business confidence, exports, labour market and more.
 

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ECB President Draghi Speaks and 11 pips range price movement

2016-11-30 12:45 GMT | [EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks]

[EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks] = Speech about the future of Europe at the University of Deusto Business School, in Madrid.

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From official report:

  • "The euro area faces a significant demographic challenge in the coming decades. Reversing the decline in productivity growth and improving labour market outcomes are both required to meet this challenge. Without concerted effort on structural reforms, per capita income growth in the euro area is likely to stagnate, and may even decline."
  • "The ECB’s current monetary policy settings are designed to support activity to bring inflation back to our objective of close to, but below, 2% over the medium term. In doing so, we are lowering the risk that the current low rates of growth become entrenched, but we alone cannot eliminate that risk. Monetary policy is providing support and space for governments to carry out necessary structural reforms. It is up to euro area governments to act, individually at national level as well as jointly at European level."

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EUR/USD M5: 11 pips range price movement by ECB President Draghi Speaks news event


The productivity challenge for Europe
The productivity challenge for Europe
  • European Central Bank
  • www.ecb.europa.eu
The euro area economy continues to expand at a moderate, but steady, pace and labour markets are gradually improving, including notably here in Spain. This gradual upward trend is expected to continue, not least owing to our monetary policy measures. But productivity growth has remained very subdued. In 1995, productivity growth in the euro...
 

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada Gross Domestic Product and 36 pips range price movement

2016-11-30 13:30 GMT | [CAD - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report:

  • "Real gross domestic product rose for the fourth consecutive month in September, growing 0.3%. Higher output in the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction sector was the major contributor to the increase."
  • "Goods-producing industries grew by 1.1% as all sectors increased, led by mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction."

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USD/CAD M5: 36 pips range price movement by Canada Gross Domestic Product news event

 

The Daily — Gross domestic product by industry, September 2016
  • 2016.11.30
  • www.statcan.gc.ca
Monthly gross domestic product (GDP) by industry data at basic prices are chained volume estimates with 2007 as the reference year. This means that data for each industry and each aggregate are obtained from a chained volume index, multiplied by the industry's value added in 2007. Monthly data are benchmarked to annually chained Fisher volume...
 

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day branging bullish, daily bullish breakout

2016-11-30 15:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 0.9 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil M5: ranging bullish. The price is located above 100 SMA/200 SMA for the ranging within the narrow support/resistance levels waiting for the direction of the primary bullish trend to be resumed or the secondary correction to be started.

If the price breaks 51.11 resistance level so the bullish trend will be resumed.
If the price breaks 50.85 support so the local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.



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Crude Oil Daily: bullish breakout to be started. The price is located above 100 SMA/200 SMA for the bullish trend by 50.82 resistance level to be breaking to above for the bullish trend to be continuing.


If daily price breaks 50.82 resistance on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If the price breaks 46.56 support level to below on close daily bar so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.

 

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Private Capital Expenditure and 17 pips range price movement

2016-12-01 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Private Capital Expenditure]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Private Capital Expenditure] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of new capital expenditures made by private businesses.

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From official report:

  • "The trend volume estimate for total new capital expenditure fell by 4.9% in the September quarter 2016 while the seasonally adjusted estimate fell by 4.0%."
  • "The trend volume estimate for equipment, plant and machinery rose by 1.0% in the September quarter 2016 while the seasonally adjusted estimate fell by 1.9%."

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AUD/USD M5: 17 pips range price movement by Australia Private Capital Expenditure news event


5625.0 - Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure, Australia, Sep 2016
  • www.abs.gov.au
SEPTEMBER KEY FIGURES SEPTEMBER KEY POINTS ACTUAL EXPENDITURE (VOLUME TERMS) The trend volume estimate for total new capital expenditure fell by 4.9% in the September quarter 2016 while the seasonally adjusted estimate fell by 4.0%. The trend volume estimate for buildings and structures fell by 8.5% in the September quarter 2016 while...
 

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Manufacturing PMI and 103 pips range price movement

2016-12-01 01:00 GMT | [CNY - Manufacturing PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

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From steelorbis article:

  • "China’s manufacturing PMI increases to 51.7 percent in November Thursday, 01 December 2016."
  • "The purchasing managers' index (PMI) for China’s manufacturing sector was at 51.7 percent in November this year, up 0.5 percentage points compared to October, as announced by China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on December 1."

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USD/CNH M5: 103 pips range price movement by China Manufacturing PMI news event


 
Quick Technical Overview - Brent Crude Oil: intra-day bullish to be continuing by 52.63 resistance to be broken; daily bullish breakout to be started  (based on the article)

The intra-day price is located abobe 200 SMA/100 SMA for the bullish market condition: the price is trying to break 52.63 resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing.


  • "Markets never have great expectations going into OPEC meetings, but yesterday’s agreement to cut production starting January of next year came as a surprise. Of course, we knew that was the way that the traffic was headed, but there was no guarantee that it was going to arrive there this week. We’ve seen Brent back above the USD 50pb level, whilst the energy related stocks have also risen, by as much as 5% in some cases. The question is whether this is going to put a floor under the oil price from here. The answer to that could well like with what happens with the global economy in the coming year." 
  • "Before then, we have jobs data in the US tomorrow. With a December tightening from the Fed now fully priced in, the volatility of the dollar to this number could well be less than usual. Markets are looking for a 180k gain in headline payrolls, with the rate holding steady at 4.9%. As mentioned yesterday, expectation of fiscal policy under the new administration has been the main driver of the dollar and Fed expectation over the past three weeks, with the current state of the economy coming a distant second." 


  • If the price breaks 52.63 resistance level on close H4 bar so the bullish trend will be continuing.
  • If price breaks 52.40 support on close H4 bar to below so the secondary ranging within the primary bullish trend will be started for the intra-day price movement during the some very short period of time.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
 Support
52.6352.40
53.7149.57
N/A46.95
Booming oil
Booming oil
  • votes: 2
  • Simon Smith
  • blog.fxpro.co.uk
Markets never have great expectations going into OPEC meetings, but yesterday’s agreement to cut production starting January of next year came as a
 

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Manufacturing PMI and 78 pips range price movement

2016-12-01 09:30 GMT | [GBP - Manufacturing PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

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From official report:


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GBP/USD M5: 78 pips range price movement by U.K. Manufacturing PMI news event

 

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