Press review - page 462

[Sergey Golubev]

NZD/USD Daily Technicals: ranging around 200-day SMA for direction (based on the article)

D1 price is located near and below 200 SMA waiting for the bearish trend to be resumed or the bullish reversal to be started.

 

• "The New Zealand Dollar put in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern, hinting a turn lower against its US namesake may be ahead after a brief upswing. The setup has emerged after a retest of major trend line support-turned-resistance, seemingly bolstering the case for a bearish scenario."
• "Near-term support is at 0.7068, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a daily close below that opening the door for a test of the 38.2% level at 0.7005. Alternatively, a move back above the 0.7136-62 area (38.2% Fib retracement, trend line) paves the way for a challenge of the 50% threshold at 0.7187."

If the price breaks 0.7046 support level to below on daily close bar so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.
If the price breaks 0.7168 resistance level to above so the reversal of the daily price movement from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish trend will be started.
If not so the price will be on ranging waiting for direction of the trend.

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and USD/JPY: ISM Purchasing Managers' Index

2016-11-29 15:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]

• past data is 51.9
• forecast data is 52.4
• actual data is 53.2 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

==========

From official report:

"The November PMI® registered 53.2 percent, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the October reading of 51.9 percent. The New Orders Index registered 53 percent, an increase of 0.9 percentage point from the October reading of 52.1 percent. The Production Index registered 56 percent, 1.4 percentage points higher than the October reading of 54.6 percent. The Employment Index registered 52.3 percent, a decrease of 0.6 percentage point from the October reading of 52.9 percent. Inventories of raw materials registered 49 percent, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the October reading of 47.5 percent. The Prices Index registered 54.5 percent in November, the same reading as in October, indicating higher raw materials prices for the ninth consecutive month. Comments from the panel cite increasing demand, some tightness in the labor market and plans to reduce inventory by the end of the year."

==========

EUR/USD M5: 21 pips range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events

==========

USD/CAD M5: 30 pips range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events

==========

USD/JPY M5: 25 pips range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Retail Sales and 12 pips range price movement

2016-12-01 09:30 GMT | [AUD - Retail Sales]

• past data is 0.6%
• forecast data is 0.3%
• actual data is 0.5% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

==========

From official report:

• "The trend estimate rose 0.4% in October 2016. This follows a rise of 0.4% in September 2016 and a rise of 0.3% in August 2016."
• "The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.5% in October 2016. This follows a rise of 0.6% in September 2016 and a rise of 0.6% in August 2016."
  

==========

AUD/USD M5: 12 pips range price movement by Australian Retail Sales news event

[Sergey Golubev]

Dollar Index Intra-Day Technicals: correction within the bullish (based on the article)

H4 price is located above 100 SMA/200 SMA in the bullish area of the chart for the secondary correction to be continuing.

"Monday’s (11/14) close settled above channel resistance, indicating potential for upside acceleration (could be a ‘blow-off’). The importance of the break through resistance is accentuated by the fact that channel resistance (former now) was support earlier this week (on 11/17 dip). DXY hasn’t disappointed, having traded through the 2015 highs. 99.83 (former support), along with former channel resistance, should be watched for support."

 

The price is breaking 100.76 support level to below for the correction to be continuing with 100.65 nearest target.

[Sergey Golubev]

Trading News Events: Non-Farm Employment Change (adapted from dailyfx)

• "A 180K rise in U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) may fuel the bullish sentiment surrounding the greenback and trigger a pullback in EUR/USD should the report put increased pressure on the Federal Reserve to further normalize monetary policy."
• "With the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) widely anticipated to lift the benchmark interest rate at the December 14 meeting, a further improvement in labor market dynamics may encourage the central bank to implement higher borrowing-costs in 2017 especially as the U.S. economy approaches ‘full-employment.’ However, Chair Janet Yellen and Co. may make further attempts to buy more time as officials warn ‘market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved up but remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months,’ and the permanent voting-members may largely endorse a wait-and-see approach going into the year ahead as ‘the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run.’"

Bullish USD Trade: U.S. Economy Adds 180K Jobs or More

• "Need red, five-minute candle following the NFP print to consider a short EUR/USD position."
• "If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position."
• "Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward."
• "Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit."

Bearish USD Trade: U.S. NFP Report Disappoints

• "Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD position."
• "Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction."

Two-hour H2 price broke 200 SMA to below to be reversed to the primary bearish market condition.

• If H2 price break 1.0689 resistance level to above on close bar so the price will be started to be reversed back to the bullish market condition.
  
• If H2 price breaks 1.0620 support on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing.
  
• If not so the price will be ranging within the levels waiting for direction.

-------

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and S&P 500: Non-Farm Payrolls

2016-12-02 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

• past data is 142K
• forecast data is 177K
• actual data is 178K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

==========

From official report:

"The unemployment rate declined to 4.6 percent in November, and total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 178,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment gains occurred in professional and business services and in health care."

==========

EUR/USD M5: 33 pips range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events

==========

USD/CAD M5: 38 pips range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events

==========

S&P 500 M5: pips range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Outlook for EUR/USD: 2016, December 04 - December 11 (based on the article)

EUR/USD maintained its range as we entered the last month of the year. The ECB meeting is left, right and center this week, but certainly not the only event, in a week that starts with the fallout from the Italian referendum.

1. Italian Referendum: Sunday. Italians go to the polls to decide on far-reaching changes to the political system, moves that, if approved, are supposed to make the third-largest economy of the euro-zone more governable.
2. Eurogroup meetings: Monday, with the wider Ecofin on Tuesday. Finance ministers of the 19-country euro area convene to discuss various matters.
3. Services PMIs: Monday: 8:15 for Spain, 8:45 for Italy, final French figure at 8:50, final German number at 8:55 and the final read for November for the whole euro-zone at 9:00.
4. Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 9:30.
5. Retail sales: Monday, 10:00.
6. German Factory Orders: Tuesday, 7:00. A rise of 0.6% is projected.
7. Retail PMI: Tuesday, 9:10. No significant change is expected now.
8. GDP: Tuesday, 10:00. 
9. German Industrial Production: Wednesday, 7:00.
10. French Trade Balance: Thursday, 6:30. Contrary to Germany, France has a chronic trade deficit.
11. ECB decision: Thursday: decision at 12:45 and the press conference is at 13:30. The European Central Bank is not expected to change its monetary policy, leaving the main lending rate at 0%, the deposit rate at -0.40% and the QE program at 80 billion euros per month.
12. German Trade Balance: Wednesday, 7:00. A narrower surplus of 20.8 billion is forecast.
13. French Industrial Production: Friday.

[Sergey Golubev]

Quick Technical Overview - GOLD (XAU/USD): daily bearish to be continuing by 1170/1160 support levels to be broken (adapted from the article)

D1 price is located below 100-day SMA/200-day SMA in the bearish area of the chart by 1170/1160 support levels to be broken for the bearish trend to be continuing.

• "Gold prices continue to rally from this morning’s low of $1,166.50, as the US Dollar is set to finish the week lower on worse than expected NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) figures. NFP totals for November were expected at 180k, but released modestly lower at 178k. The biggest surprise was October’s totals being revised lower by a reported -19k. Technically if the US Dollar continues to retreat on this data, this may signal a shift in momentum for commodities markets including the price of gold."

• If the price breaks 1270.08 resistance level on close daily bar to above so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the ranging bullish market condition will be started.
  
• If daily price breaks 1170.11 support level on close bar to below so the bearish trend will be continuing with 1160.63 target to re-enter.
  
• If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.
  

Resistance	Support
1270.08	1170.11
N/A	1160.63

Trend:

D1 - bearish

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Gross Domestic Product and 49 pips range price movement

2016-12-07 00:30 GMT | [AUD - GDP]

• past data is 0.6%
• forecast data is 0.2%
• actual data is -0.5% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

From official report:

• "The Australian economy declined by 0.5% in seasonally adjusted chain volume terms in the September quarter."

==========

AUD/USD M5: 49 pips range price movement by Australian Gross Domestic Product news event

 

[Muhammad Syamil Bin Abdullah]

More Downwards Pressure ON British Pound

ON the 4H chart, we have got a butterfly bearish sell signal which witness the GBPUSD have dropped about 150pips. Attention will be focus on fibo level 50% and 61.8% aimed for support level, also for break through if the exchange should continue the current trend.

IN the mean time some important GBP news coming up :