Forecast for Q4'16 - levels for Brent Crude Oil - page 2

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.16 09:44

Quick Technical Overview - Brent Crude Oil: ranging waiting for the daily bearish reversal or for the bullish trend to be resumed (based on the article)

The price is located abobe 200-day SMA and below 100-day SMA for the bullish market condition with the secondary ranging within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 47.82 resistance level located near and above 100 SMA in the beginning of the bullish trend to be resumed, and
  • 44.76 support level located below 200 SMA in the primary bearish trend to be resumed.


  • "The bearish move in Crude Oil prices this week has been short lived, with the commodity now trading back to weekly highs at $45.29. This move has been predicated on the hope that OPEC will agree to cut production later in the week. This morning’s advance should be seen as significant as it is the first sign of a meaningful reversal after Crude Oil Prices have declined as much as $9.73 a barrel from the October high of $51.91." 
  • "Technically, Crude Oil prices are now trading back above the 200 day MVA (simple moving average). Typically this indicator is used as a trend qualifier, and if Crude remains above the MVA it may be seen as a bullish signal for the market. It should be noted that the last time that Crude Oil prices traded above the MVA was in August, which saw the commodity advance as much as $12.68 a barrel. Even though that prices are now trending higher, traders should continue to monitor the MVA at $43.95. A move in Crude Oil prices back under the MVA could just as easily signal shift towards bearish market conditions." 


  • If the price breaks 47.82 resistance level on close bar so the bullish trend will be resumed.
  • If price breaks 44.76 support on close bar so the primary bearish reversal will be started.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
 Support
47.8244.76
48.9544.18
50.07N/A

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.19 09:32

OPEC might agree to limit production cuts at the end of the month boosted sentiment (adapted from the article)

Brent Crude Oil daily price is located below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of te chart with the secondary bear market rally. The price is trying to break 48.31 resistance level to above for the bullish reversal to be started. Alternative, if the daily price breaks 44.76 and 44.18 support levels to below on close bar so the primary beaish trend will be resumed.


  • "The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is moving closer to finalizing its first deal since 2008 to limit output, with most members prepared to offer Iran flexibility on production volumes, ministers and sources said."
  • "Iran has been the main stumbling block for capping production, and while it has not yet responded to the proposal, it suggests OPEC members may be coming nearer to a consensus ahead of their meeting in Vienna on Nov. 30."
  • "A stronger dollar makes oil, which is priced in the greenback, more expensive to buyers using other currencies."
  • "But analysts said there were still obstacles for the producer group to overcome before it could reach a deal. OPEC is scheduled to meet next on Nov. 30."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.21 19:44

Brent Crude Oil: intra-day bullish breakout (adapted from the article)

H4 oil price is on bullish market condition with the breakout by the 49.93 resistance level to be broken for the intra-day bullish breakout to be continuing. Alternative, if the price breaks 46.73 support level to below on close bar so the bearish reversal will be started.

  • "Volatility is anticipated to be high regardless of OPEC’s outcome whether they cut the production of Oil, and set a cap on production for the first time in eight years or whether they continue to produce at well. Recent comments from the Iranian Oil Minister, Bijan Namdar Zanganesh, have increased confidence following Russian Oil Minister’s comments last week about a highly probable deal coming to pass."
  • "In addition to the encouraging comments about a, “highly probable” outcome for a production cut, the Options Market has shown high anticipation in the Oil Market. Open interest, which measures both long and short exposure in the Oil market ahead of the Vienna OPEC meeting is at its highest levels since 2007 as per the U.S. CFTC. Additionally, we’ve seen a record number of call volume, which is less of a commitment than outright longs while outright shorts in the Brent Oil have reached their highest level in more than two years." 
  • "The aggressive positioning helps to show that the price-risk may favor the upside given the calls would be exercised and the aggressive short positioning would be unwound. However, a failure to fulfill the agreement in September to cut collective output from 34 million to 32.5-33 million will no doubt see the price under pressure, and some wondering if a move toward a $30-handle is underway." 


Daily price is breaking Ichimoku cloud on open bar for now for the possible bullish reversal. If the price breaks 61.8% Fibo level at 50 to above so the reversal of the daily price movement will be started, otherwise - ranging to be inside the cloud.

 

Most likely scenario: the price will be bounced from 50.0/61.8 resistance level to below for the ranging condition to be started.


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.28 10:39

OPEC Meeting Preview: New Drama Unfolds (based on the article)

Intra-day Brent Crude Oil price broke 200 SMA at 49.54 to below for the reversal to the primary bearish market condition. For now, the price is located within 100 SMA/200 SMA rangging area for the 47.50 support level to be tested for the primary bearish trend to be continuing.

  • "As late as Thanksgiving morning (November 24) there was significant hope that the coming week’s OPEC meeting and negotiations with non-OPEC countries would lead to a widely accepted oil output freeze or maybe even a reduction in oil output."
  • "Since Friday, however, negotiations have blown up."
  • "It is still possible for a deal to fall into place at Wednesday’s OPEC meeting or for the framework of a new deal to take form."


If H4 price breaks 47.50 support level to below on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be resumed with 46.56 target to re-enter.
If H4 price breaks 49.54 to above on close bar so the bullish reversal will be started with 49.94/50.82 nearest bullish target.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.28 18:21

The Problem for OPEC in Three Charts (based on the article)

  • "OPEC’s recent attempt to cooperate on production cuts was supposed to end the global price wars and the battle for customers."
  • "It is pretty clear now that isn’t happening. The battle is just entering a different phase."




 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.30 16:57

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day branging bullish, daily bullish breakout

2016-11-30 15:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 0.9 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil M5: ranging bullish. The price is located above 100 SMA/200 SMA for the ranging within the narrow support/resistance levels waiting for the direction of the primary bullish trend to be resumed or the secondary correction to be started.

If the price breaks 51.11 resistance level so the bullish trend will be resumed.
If the price breaks 50.85 support so the local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.



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Crude Oil Daily: bullish breakout to be started. The price is located above 100 SMA/200 SMA for the bullish trend by 50.82 resistance level to be breaking to above for the bullish trend to be continuing.


If daily price breaks 50.82 resistance on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If the price breaks 46.56 support level to below on close daily bar so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.01 11:07

Quick Technical Overview - Brent Crude Oil: intra-day bullish to be continuing by 52.63 resistance to be broken; daily bullish breakout to be started  (based on the article)

The intra-day price is located abobe 200 SMA/100 SMA for the bullish market condition: the price is trying to break 52.63 resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing.


  • "Markets never have great expectations going into OPEC meetings, but yesterday’s agreement to cut production starting January of next year came as a surprise. Of course, we knew that was the way that the traffic was headed, but there was no guarantee that it was going to arrive there this week. We’ve seen Brent back above the USD 50pb level, whilst the energy related stocks have also risen, by as much as 5% in some cases. The question is whether this is going to put a floor under the oil price from here. The answer to that could well like with what happens with the global economy in the coming year." 
  • "Before then, we have jobs data in the US tomorrow. With a December tightening from the Fed now fully priced in, the volatility of the dollar to this number could well be less than usual. Markets are looking for a 180k gain in headline payrolls, with the rate holding steady at 4.9%. As mentioned yesterday, expectation of fiscal policy under the new administration has been the main driver of the dollar and Fed expectation over the past three weeks, with the current state of the economy coming a distant second." 


  • If the price breaks 52.63 resistance level on close H4 bar so the bullish trend will be continuing.
  • If price breaks 52.40 support on close H4 bar to below so the secondary ranging within the primary bullish trend will be started for the intra-day price movement during the some very short period of time.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
 Support
52.6352.40
53.7149.57
N/A46.95

 
 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.20 08:11

Crude Oil Price Forecast: ranging within 57/53 levels for direction (based on the article)

The daily price is on bullish market condition with the ranging within 57.56 resistance level for the bullish trend to be resumed and 53.11 support level for the daily correction ot be started.



"Looking at the OPEC cut from another angle, we may have been working with a WTI average H2 price in the upper half of $40/bbl while the world’s largest producers were pressing capacity limits. Naturally, the last two and a half years with a ~$84/bbl price range that included a ~78% drop from July 2014-February 2016 showed us that there is room for volatility. However, it’s fair to think that an average price in the upper half of $40/bbl may be long-term support, and if the chart’s hold up, we could be working on further upside from these levels in 2017."


"Should a reversal develop in the price of Crude Oil, we’d be on the watch for the price to break down through the rising support that lies between $47/45. Only a break below this zone would take us from Bullish to Neutral. Until then, we’ll favor eventual upside heading into 2017."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.12.21 11:31

Oil rises as forecasters see big draw in U.S. stocks (based on the article)

Daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart. The price is on ranging within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 57.56 resistance level located far above Ichimoku cloud in the beginning of the bullish trend to be resumed, and
  • 53.60 support level located in the beginning of the secondary correction to be started.

"There are expectations that we'll see supplies start to tighten by the end of the year," said analyst Phil Flynn of Price Futures Group in Chicago. "We'll get more heating oil demand this weekend and could see a drop in production next week and even last week because of the cold temperatures."

"The market pulled back in the early afternoon after Libya's National Oil Corp said pipelines from its western fields had been reopened. It expects to add 270,000 barrels a day in state production in the next three months. Protesters agreed last week to end a longstanding blockade."


Trend Strength indicator is estimating the bullish trend to be continuing, and Absolute Strength indicator is evaluating the trend as the ranging in the near future.


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