Forecast for Q3'16 - levels for GBP/USD - page 5

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.14 11:04

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Jobless Claims and 27 pips range price movement

2016-09-14 08:30 GMT | [GBP - Claimant Count Change]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Claimant Count Change] = Change in the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits during the previous month.

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UK Claimant Count (people), seasonally adjusted
August 2011 to August 2016


For August 2016 there were 771,000 people claiming unemployment related benefits. This was:

  • 2,400 more than for July 2016
  • 21,300 fewer than for a year earlier

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GBP/USD M5: 27 pips range price movement by U.K. Jobless Claims news event




 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.15 11:02

Trading News Events: Bank of England Interest Rate Decision (adapted from the article)

  • "The Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision may trigger a short-squeeze in British Pound and generate a relief rally in GBP/USD should the central bank talk down bets for an imminent rate-cut."
  • "Even though the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) warns ‘a majority of members expect to support a further cut in Bank Rate to its effective lower,’ the BoE may preserve the current policy throughout the remainder of the year as there appears to be a limited risk for a U.K. recession. With Deputy Governor Minouche Shafik scheduled to depart in February, Governor Mark Carney and Co. may endorse a wait-and-see approach for the foreseeable future as the central bank sees a risk of overshooting the 2% inflation-target over the policy horizon."


Bullish GBP Trade: BoE Implements Range of New Easing Measures

  • "Need green, five-minute candle following the rate decision to consider a long GBP/USD trade."
  • "If market reaction favors a long sterling trade, buy GBP/USD with two separate position."
  • "Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward."
  • "Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit."
Bearish GBP Trade: MPC Sticks with Status Quo
  • "Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short GBP/USD trade."
  • "Implement same setup as the bullish British Pound trade, just in reverse."


Daily price is located below 200-day SMA (200 SMA) and 100-day SMA (100 SMA) in the bearish area of the chart: the price is on ranging within the narrow support resistance levels waiting for the direction of the bearish trend to be resumed or the secondary bear market rally to be started. descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to below for the bearish continuation, and RSI indicator is estimating the ranging condition to be continuing in the bear future.

  • If D1 price breaks 1.3444 resistance level to above on close daily bar so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started.
  • If price breaks 1.3137 support to below on close daily bar so the primary bearish trend will be resumed with 1.2865 nearest daily target.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

(all images/charts were made using Metatrader 5 software and free indicators from MQL5 CodeBase)


 

GBP/USD M5: 235 pips price movement by BoE Official Bank Rate news event :


 

GBP/USD M5: 57 pips price movement by BoE Official Bank Rate news event :



 

GBPUSD M5: 54 pips price movement by GBP - Official Bank Rate news event :


 

GBPUSD M5 : 24 pips range price movement by GBP - Official Bank Rate news event


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.15 13:38

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: BoE Official Rate and 62 pips price movement

2016-09-15 11:00 GMT | [GBP - Official Bank Rate]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Official Bank Rate] = Interest rate at which the BOE lends to financial institutions overnight.

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The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment.  At its meeting ending on 14 September 2016, the MPC voted unanimously to maintain Bank Rate at 0.25%.  The Committee voted unanimously to continue with the programme of sterling non-financial investment-grade corporate bond purchases totalling up to £10 billion, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves.  The Committee also voted unanimously to continue with the programme of £60 billion of UK government bond purchases to take the total stock of these purchases to £435 billion, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves.

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GBP/USD M5: 62 pips price movement by BoE Official Rate news event



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.16 10:11

GBP/USD: trading near 1.3198 level for direction (adapted from the article)

M30 intra-day price was on breakout: the price broke 100 SMA level to above for the possible bullish reversal. But the price was bounced from 200 SMA to below for the breakdpown of the price movement. GBP/USD price is traded near 1.3198 level for the bearish breakout to be continuing or to the bear market rally to be started.

"The GBP/USD is trading near daily lows after the BOE (Bank of England) kept key interest rates flat at 0.25%. While it was expected that rates would be kept flat, the Pound is still losing ground to the majors as traders are speculating that rates may be cut in the future. Technically the GBP/USD is currently finding support at a short-term retracement value near 1.3193. This area is represented in the graph below as a 61.8% retracement from yesterday’s low of 1.3138 to the high of 1.3278. Now traders will wait to see if prices recover here, or if the Cable is set to decline further in the short term."


The most likely scenario for the price movement for today is the following: the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.09.23 08:46

Technical Targets for GBP/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

H4 price is located below 100 SMA/200 SMA levels in the bearish area of the chart and within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 1.3120 resistance level located near 200 SMA in the beginning of the bullish reversal to be started, and
  • 1.3027 support level located below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the bearish area of the chart.
The symmetric triangle pattern was formed by the price to be broken for the bullish reversal or for the bearish trend to be resumed.



Daily price. United Overseas Bank is expecting for this pair to be on bearish market condition with the seconday ranging way:

"We highlighted the rapidly waning momentum yesterday and advocated shorts to book some profit at 1.3035. Subsequently, GBP rallied strongly and edged 1 pip above our stop-loss at 1.3120 (overnight high of 1.3121). From here, the risk of a short-term low would continue to increase and a clear break above 1.3120 would not be surprising (unless GBP can move and stay below 1.3035 within the next 1 to 2 days)."


  • If daily price breaks 1.3136 resistance level to above on close bar so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started.
  • If daily price breaks 1.3444 resistance level to above on close bar so we may see the reversal of the price movement from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish market condition.
  • If daily price breaks 1.2946 support level on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be resumed with 1.2865 nearest daily target. 
  • If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

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