Press review - page 428

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Avoid These 3 Rookie Gold Trading Mistakes Now

George Georgoudakis, 2016.08.23 03:43

Sometimes the best trade is no trade at all. The gold market continues to languish within a developing triangle pattern on the daily chart as traders await comments from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on Friday at the Fed summit in Jackson Hole Wyoming. Not a whole lotta action right now.

Could Janet trigger a triangle breakout? As nearly 500 million people in advanced industrialized nations remain mired under negative interest rates policies –what if any answers do global central bankers have for the current sluggish growth prospects? Will Fed Chief Janet Yellen have any answers this week? Read more here.

In the meantime, as the gold market lumbers quietly in a tight range, it may open the door to several trading mistakes. Do any of these sound familiar?

Trading Mistake #1: Sometimes sheer boredom can trigger you into a trade.

• Looking for some excitement? Don't look to the markets for that. Don't take unplanned trades. Write your trades down ahead of time, with your entry points, objectives and stop-loss levels.

Trading Mistake #2: Trading outside your timeframe.

• Are you a short-term intraday trader?


• Are you a multi-day swing traders?


• Are you a long-term investor?

One of the elements of a successful trading and investing plan is to know your timeframe and stick to it.

Trading Mistake #3: Getting stuck and trading your "opinion."

The markets will tell you where they are going –all you have to do is watch the charts. The markets –gold or otherwise – are not going to change direction just because you doubled down on a losing trade. Good traders listen to the markets – and follow price. Markets don't care that you "know" gold has to go up right now because of XYZ.

Triangle update: Comex December gold futures remain stuck in a developing daily triangle. As a reminder, triangles are most often "continuation" patterns, which means upon a confirmed upside breakout, gold would resume its previous uptrend. See Figure 1 below.

What you need to know now:

• The triangle has not been confirmed


• The short-term picture within the triangle is weakening as gold dropped below its 20-day moving average.


• Momentum is weak-ish and lackluster.


• Watch the triangle support and resistance trendlines –it would take a sustained rally and close above the top triangle trendline to confirm an upside breakout.

Learn more about Triangles here >>  Technical Analysis 101.

What's your trading plan right now?

[Sergey Golubev]

Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

H4 price is located above 100 SMA/200 SMA for the bullish market condition: the price is on ranging within the following support/resistance levels:

• 1.1354 resistance level located above 100 SMA/100 SMA in the bullish area of the chart, and
• 1.1270 support level located near and above 100 SMA in the beginning of the secondary correction to be started.

The bearish reversal level is 1.1130 support, and if the price breaks this level to below on close H4 bar so the reversal of the intra-day price movement from the bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.

Daily price. United Overseas Bank is expecting for EUR/USD to be continuing with the bullish market condition:

"While stops for s/t bullish view is still intact at 1.1240, the recent price action is lackluster and the odds for extension to the 1.1430 high seen on the day of Brexit are not very high. EUR has to clear the recent 1.1365 peak in an ‘impulsive manner’ before a sustained up-move can be expected."

• If daily price breaks 1.1365 resistance level on close bar so the bullish trend will be continuing.
  
• If daily price breaks 1.1109 support level on close bar so the reversal of the price movement to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
• If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.

[Sergey Golubev]

Technical Targets for GBP/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

H4 price is above 100 SMA/200 SMA for the bullish market condition: the price is breaking 1.3185 resistance to above for 1.3209 target to re-enter.

Daily price. United Overseas Bank is expecting for GBP/USD to be continuing with the bullish market condition by 1.3186 resistance to be broken with 1.3255 bullish target:

"GBP touched a low of 1.3034 before rebounding strongly. While short-term downward momentum has waned with the strong recovery, we still believe that the current pull-back has scope to extend lower to test the 1.2940 support first. That said, a clear break above last week 1.3186 high could lead to a quick move towards the key 1.3255 resistance."

• If daily price breaks 1.3319 resistance level on close bar so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started.
  
• If daily price breaks 1.2794 support level on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.
• If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Construction Work and 15 pips price movement

2016-08-24 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Construction Work Done]

• past data is -0.3%
• forecast data is -2.0%
• actual data is -3.7% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Construction Work Done] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of construction projects completed.

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• "The trend estimate for total construction work done fell 1.9% in the June quarter 2016."
• "The seasonally adjusted estimate for total construction work done fell 3.7% to $47,419.0m in the June quarter."

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AUD/USD M5: 15 pips price movement by Australia Construction Work news event

[Sergey Golubev]

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Trade Balance and 18 pips price movement

2016-08-23 22:45 GMT | [NZD - Trade Balance]

• past data is 110M
• forecast data is -325M
• actual data is -433M according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

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NZD/USD M5: 18 pips price movement by New Zealand Trade Balance news event

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CNH Price Action Analysis - rdaily correction to be resumed or the bullish to be re-started (adapted from the article)

Daily price is located above 200 period SMA and 100 period SMA for the primary bullish with secondary ranging between Fibo support level at 6.6125 and Fibo resistance level at 6.7166:

• "The hold above 6.6500 seems likely to shift focus to intermediate resistance at 6.6860 followed by the 6.7 figure."
• "A break and hold above those recent highs may be required for bulls to really take control again."
  
• "A move to the downside may target the 6.6500 level again, followed by the July lows at 6.6224."

If daily price breaks Fibo support level at 6.6125 to below so the local downtrend as the secondary correction will be resumed.
If daily price breaks Fibo resistance level at 6.7166 from below to above so the primary bullish trend will be continuing with good possible breakout of the price movement.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.

Resistance	Support
6.6768	6.6277
6.7166	6.6125

• Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 6.6125 support level for possible sell trade
• Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 6.7166 resistance level for possible buy trade
• Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : bullish

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Forecast for Q3'16 - levels for Brent Crude Oil

Sergey Golubev, 2016.08.24 17:20

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day bearish breakdown, daily correction

2016-08-24 14:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

• past data is -2.5M
• forecast data is -0.5M
• actual data is 2.5M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 2.5 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil M5: bearish breakdown. The price broke 100 SMA/200 SMA for the breakdown to the bearish area of the chart: price broke 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal area for the primary bearish market condition with 48.85 support level as a nearest intra-day bearish target.

If the price breaks 49.46 resistance level so the reversal of the intra-day price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish market condition will be started.
If the price breaks 48.85 support so the intra-day primary bearish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.

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Crude Oil Daily: bullish ranging or correction to be started. The price is above 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal area in the bullish are of the chart: price is on ranging within 51.18 resistance level and 41.49 support level.

If the price breaks 51.18 resistance on close daily bar so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If the price breaks 41.49 support level on close daily bar so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: German Ifo Business Climate and 10 pips price movement

2016-08-25 08:00 GMT | [EUR - German Ifo Business Climate]

• past data is 108.3
• forecast data is 108.5
• actual data is 106.2 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - German Ifo Business Climate] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers.

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EUR/USD M5: 10 pips price movement by German Ifo Business Climate news event

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Durable Goods Orders

2016-08-25 12:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

• past data is -3.9%
• forecast data is 3.4%
• actual data is 4.4% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.

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GBP/USD M5: 23 pips range price movement by U.S. Durable Goods Orders news event

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EUR/USD M5: 17 pips range price movement by U.S. Durable Goods Orders news event

[Sergey Golubev]

Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

H4 price is located above 100 SMA/200 SMA for the bullish market condition: the price is on ranging within the following support/resistance levels:

• 1.1365 resistance level located far above 100 SMA/100 SMA in the bullish area of the chart, and
• 1.1244 support level located near and above 100 SMA in the beginning of the secondary correction to be started.

The price is testing 1.1296 resistance level together with ascending triangle pattern to above.

Daily price. United Overseas Bank is expecting for EUR/USD to be continuing with the ranging bullish market condition within 1.1190/1.1370 range:

"As highlighted yesterday, unless EUR can move and stay above 1.1310/15, the bullish outlook would shift to neutral. While further EUR strength would not be surprising further out, the current price action suggests that this pair has entered a consolidation phase and only a clear break out of the expected 1.1190/1.1370 sideway trading range would indicate the start of directional move."

• If daily price breaks 1.1365 resistance level on close bar so the bullish trend will be continuing.
  
• If daily price breaks 1.1109 support level on close bar so the reversal of the price movement to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
• If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.