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Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for GOLD (XAU/USD)
Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.29 16:52
GOLD (XAU/USD) Intra-Day Technical Analysis Ahead Of Yellen Speech
is on primary bearish market condition: the price is located below Ichimoku cloud and below Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart.
H4 price will break 1207.86 support level on close H4 bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing.If H4 price will break 1223.08 resistance level on close bar so the local uptrend as the secondary rally within the primary bearish trend will be started.If H4 price will break 1260.21 resistance level on close bar so
the intra-day price will be reversed to the bullish market condition.If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
SUMMARY : bearish
Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.29 21:17
"The FOMC left the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged
in January and March, in large part reflecting the changes in baseline
conditions that I noted earlier. In particular, developments abroad
imply that meeting our objectives for employment and inflation will
likely require a somewhat lower path for the federal funds rate than was
anticipated in December.
Given the risks to the outlook, I consider it appropriate for the
Committee to proceed cautiously in adjusting policy. This caution is
especially warranted because, with the federal funds rate so low, the
FOMC's ability to use conventional monetary policy to respond to
economic disturbances is asymmetric. If economic conditions were to
strengthen considerably more than currently expected, the FOMC could
readily raise its target range for the federal funds rate to stabilize
the economy. By contrast, if the expansion was to falter or if inflation
was to remain stubbornly low, the FOMC would be able to provide only a
modest degree of additional stimulus by cutting the federal funds rate
back to near zero.9
14 pips price movement for EURUSD was immediate effect after Fed Chair Yellen Speech. The medium term situation related to this Speech after publishing it on Federal Reserve website are the following:
1. EURUSD M5: 82 pips price movement by Fed Chair Yellen Speech news event
2. GBPUSD M5: 106 pips price movement by Fed Chair Yellen Speech news event
3. USDJPY M5: 55 pips price movement by Fed Chair Yellen Speech news event
4. GOLD (XAU/USD) M5: 1,406 pips price movement by Fed Chair Yellen Speech news event
Quick Technical Overview for EUR/USD: bullish breakout with 1.1342 as the target
EUR/USD: bullish breakout. Intra-day H4 price is on bullish breakout located to be above Ichimoku cloud: price is breaking 1.1302 resistance level to above for the breakout to be continuing with 1.1342 as the next bullish nearest target.
There are the following news events which will be affected on EUR/USD price movement for the week:
Quick Technical Overview for GBP/USD: breakout with 1.4514 bullish target tto re-enter
GBP/USD: bullish breakout. Intra-day H4
price is on breakout located above Ichimoku cloud and Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart. The price
is breaking 1.4403 resistance level to above for the breakout to be
continuing with 1.4514 as a target to re-enter.
There are the following news events which will be affected on GBP/USD price movement for the week:
Forecast for Tomorrow - levels for EUR/USD and GOLD (XAU/USD)
EUR/USD: ranging below 50.0% Fibo support level. This pair on intra-day H4 price is located to be above 100/200 period SMA for the bullish market condition. The price was on bullish breakout, and it is started to be ranging within Fibo resistance level at 1.1364 and 50.0% Fibo support level at 1.1254.
GOLD (XAU/USD): ranging on reversal. Intra-day H4 price is located near and below 100/200 SMA ranging area waiting for direction: price is ranging within the following key reversal s/r levels:
RSI indicator is estinating the bearish trend to be started.
Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.31 08:45
Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.31 14:41
USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's Gross Domestic Product and 51 pips price movement
2016-03-31 13:30 GMT | [CAD - GDP]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)
[CAD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.
USDCAD M5: 51 pips price movement by Canada's Gross Domestic Product news event
Forecast for Q2'16 - levels for USD/CAD
Sergey Golubev, 2016.03.31 15:26
USD/CAD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - deep bearish
is located below SMA with period 100 (100 SMA) and SMA with the period
200 (200 SMA) for the primary bearish market condition: price broke key support levels to below to be stopped by 1.2875 and 1.2831 support levels. For now, the price is on bearish ranging within 1.2831 bearish continuation support level and 1.3010 resistance level. RSI indicator is estimating the bearish trend to be continuing with the secondary ranging.
SUMMARY : ranging
Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.01 09:07
Ahead of NFP: Fundamental Forecasts by Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Nordea Bank AB and Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken (adapted from the article)
2016-04-01 08:55 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
EUR/USD M5: bullish reversal. Intra-day M5 price broke 100/200 period SMA for the bullish market condition: the price is breaking 1.1390 resistance level to above for the bullish trend to be contin uing with 1.1411 level as the nearest bullish target. On the other hand, if the price breaks 1.1376 support level so the bearish reversal will be started with 1.1366 level as the nearest bearish target in this case.
GBP/USD M5: ranging within 100/200 SMA area for direction. Intra-day M5 price is located to be within 100/200
period SMA for the secondary ranging market condition. If the price breaks 1.4366 resistance to above so the bullish reversal will be started with 1.4373 target to re-enter. Alternatively, if the price breaks 1.4337 suport so the primary intra-day bearish trend will be continuing with 1.4328 target.
GOLD (XAU/USD) M5: ranging bullish near reversal area. Intra-day price is located near and above 100/200
period SMA for the bullish market condition with the secondary ranging. if the price breaks 1235.24 resistance to above so the bullish trend will be continuing, otheerwise the price will be on secondary ranging with the possible bearish reversal by breaking 1231.65 support to below and 1229.24 target to re-enter.
Crude Oil M5: intra-day ranging within narrow s/r levels waiting for direction. Intra-day price is located to be within 100 period SMA and 200 period SMA for the total ranging market condition within narrow s/r levels waiting for direction. If the price breaks 40.19 resistance on close candle so the reversal of the intra-day price movement from the ranging bearish to the primary bullish trend will be started with 40.27 target to re-enter. And if the price breaks 39.95 support level to below so the primary intra-day bearish trend will be continuing with 39.69 as the nearest target.
Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.01 11:36