Press review - page 371

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113455
Sergey Golubev  

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: National Australia Bank Business Confidence and 39 pips price movement

2016-02-09 00:30 GMT | [AUD - NAB Business Confidence]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - NAB Business Confidence] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed businesses, excluding the farming industry.

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"Financial market volatility has persisted, raising the risk of an adverse impact on Australian business that could threaten the recovery seen in the non-mining economy. However, today’s NAB Monthly Business Survey suggests that business confidence – where the negative effects from financial markets are likely to be felt first – have held up reasonably well in the face of this uncertainty. The confidence index remained unchanged at +2 points in January.

According to NAB Group Economist Alan Oster, “Given all the volatility in equity and financial markets, this is yet another relatively good result from the Business Survey. It suggests things remain broadly on track for the non-mining economy”.

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AUDUSD M5: 39 pips price movement by NAB Business Confidence news event :


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113455
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: German Industrial Production and 18 pips price movement

2016-02-09 07:00 GMT | [EUR - German Industrial Production]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[EUR - German Industrial Production] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.

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"In December 2015,production in industry was down 1.2% from the previous month on a price, seasonally and working day adjusted basis according to provisional data of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). In November 2015, the corrected figure shows a decreased of 0.1% (primary –0.3%) from October 2015. 

In December 2015, production in industry excluding energy and construction was down by 1.1%. Within industry, the production of capital goods decreased by 2.6% and the production of consumer goods by 1.4%. The production of intermediate goods showed an increased 0.8% .Energy production fell by 3.0% in December 2015 and the production in construction decreased by 0.2%."

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EURUSD M5: 18 pips price movement by German Industrial Production news event :


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113455
Sergey Golubev  

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: UK Manufacturing Production and 56 pips price movement

2016-02-10 09:30 GMT | [GBP - Manufacturing Production]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Manufacturing Production] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers.

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  • "Total production output is estimated to have decreased by 0.5% between Quarter 3 (July to Sep) 2015 and Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2015. This decrease was larger than the forecasted decrease of 0.2% contained within the Gross Domestic Product: Preliminary Estimate, Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2015."

  • "The largest contribution to the total production quarterly decrease came from mining & quarrying, which decreased by 2.3%, while manufacturing output remained unchanged during the same period."

  • "Total production output is estimated to have increased by 1.0% between 2014 and 2015. Of the 4 main sectors, manufacturing output was the only one to fall, decreasing by 0.2%."

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GBPUSD M5: 56 pips price movement by UK Manufacturing Production news event :


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113455
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Fed Chair Yellen Speech and 49 pips price movement

2016-02-10 15:00 GMT | [USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speech]

[USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speech] = on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee, in Washington DC.

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"The Committee is continuing its policy of reinvesting proceeds from maturing Treasury securities and principal payments from agency debt and mortgage-backed securities. As highlighted in the December statement, the FOMC anticipates continuing this policy "until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way." Maintaining our sizable holdings of longer-term securities should help maintain accommodative financial conditions and reduce the risk that we might need to return the federal funds rate target to the effective lower bound in response to future adverse shocks."

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EURUSD M5: 49 pips price movement by Fed Chair Yellen Speech news event :


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113455
Sergey Golubev  

Janet Yellen - The Perfect Hedge and Fed Room To Move (based on the article)


  • Janet Yellen spent most of the day testifying on Capitol Hill and, once again, she placed the perfect hedge. Chair Yellen said she is aware of the broader risks that may adversely affect the economy. Even with those risks, she did not directly take future rate hikes off the table. What does that mean for all of us? Put simply, she remains “data dependent.”
  • This is Yellen’s classic modus operandi. Adopting a “data dependent” stance, gives her room to move anyway she wants in the future. In fact, since she became the Fed Chair, Dr. Yellen has largely adopted a “data dependent” stance. This is her way of placing, what I call, “The Perfect Hedge.”
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113455
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Fed Chair Yellen Speech and 20 pips price movement

2016-02-11 15:00 GMT | [USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speech]

[USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speech] = on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Banking Committee, in Washington DC.

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EURUSD M5: 20 pips price movement by Fed Chair Yellen Speech news event :


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113455
Sergey Golubev  

USD/JPY: to a near-term 'turning point' - Morgan Stanley (based on the article)


  • "We expect central banks to respond to the recent sharp market moves, with the BoJ first on our list. Should the BoJ respond with new policy measures, the recent fall in pressure."
  • "Following BoJ cutting rates into negative territory, we maintained our view for further JPY strength. However, the pace of strength has surprised even our bullish expectations."
FX Market Close To A Near-Term 'Turning Point' - Morgan Stanley
FX Market Close To A Near-Term 'Turning Point' - Morgan Stanley
  • www.efxnews.com
Morgan Stanley believes the FX market has reached a level of ‘worry’ that could mark a near-term turning point. "Given the pace of the risk selloff over recent weeks, market participants who were feeling mark-to-market pain were asking almost daily when things would turn around. The seemingly one-way decline couldn’t last forever. But asset...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113455
Sergey Golubev  
EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: German GDP and 11 pips price movement


2016-02-12 07:00 GMT | [EUR - German GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - German GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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  • "The German economy continued its moderate growth at the end of 2015. In the fourth quarter of 2015, the gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.3% on the previous quarter after adjustment for price, seasonal and calendar variations. The economic situation in Germany in 2015 was characterised by solid and steady growth (+0.3% in the third and fourth quarter each and +0.4% in each of the first two quarters). The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that this results in a +1.7% average increase (calendar-adjusted: +1.4%) for the whole year of 2015. The provisional result released in January has largely been confirmed."
  • "In a year-on-year comparison, economic growth accelerated since summer when measured by the unadjusted figures. The price-adjusted GDP in the fourth quarter of 2015 rose by +2.1%, following increases of +1.7% in the third quarter of 2015 and of +1.6% in the second quarter of 2015. However, in the last quarter of 2015 there were two working days more than a year earlier, which produced an above-average calendar effect." Consequently, the calendar-adjusted increase (+1.3%) was slightly smaller than in the third (+1.7%) and second quarter (+1.6%).
  • "The statistical carry-over effect at the end of 2015 is +0.4%. This is the rate of GDP change which would be obtained for 2016 if the seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP remained at the level of the fourth quarter of 2015 for all quarters of 2016."

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EURUSD M5: 11 pips price movement by German GDP news event :


Press releases - Federal Statistical Office (Destatis)
  • www.destatis.de
Gross domestic product increased also in 4th quarter of 2015 The German economy continued its moderate growth at the end of 2015. In the fourth quarter of 2015, the gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.3% on the previous quarter after adjustment for price, seasonal and calendar variations. The economic situation in Germany in 2015 was...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113455
Sergey Golubev  
EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Euro-Zone GDP and 17 pips price movement


2016-02-12 10:00 GMT | [EUR - Euro-Zone GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - Euro-Zone GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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"Seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 0.3% in both the euro area (EA19) and the EU28 during the fourth quarter of 2015, compared with the previous quarter, according to a flash estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the third quarter of 2015, GDP grew by 0.3% and 0.4% respectively."

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EURUSD M5: 17 pips price movement by Euro-Zone GDP news event :


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113455
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Advance Retail Sales and 35 pips price movement

2016-02-12 13:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

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EURUSD M5: 35 pips price movement by USD - Retail Sales news event :