Forecast for Q2'16 - levels for EUR/USD - page 2

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.05 15:45

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.S. Trade Balance and 14 pips price movement

2016-04-05 13:30 GMT | [USD - Trade Balance]

  • past data is -45.9B
  • forecast data is -46.2B
  • actual data is -47.1B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month.

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"The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $47.1 billion in February, up $1.2 billion from $45.9 billion in January, revised. February exports were $178.1 billion, $1.8 billion more than January exports. February imports were $225.1 billion, $3.0 billion more than January imports."

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EURUSD M5: 14 pips price movement by U.S. Trade Balance news event :



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.06 20:32

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: FOMC Meeting Minutes and 33 pips price movement

2016-04-06 19:00 GMT | [USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes]

[USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes] = U.S. Fed Releases Minutes from March 15-16 FOMC Meeting.

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EURUSD M5: 33 pips price movement by FOMC Meeting Minutes news event :



 

EUR/USD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - ranging within bullish continuation resistance level and bearish reversal support level

M5 price is above 100 period SMA (100 SMA) and 200 period SMA (200 SMA_) for the primary bullish market condition: the price is ranging within bullish continuation resistance level at 1.1453 and bearish reversal support level at 1.1402. RSI indicator is estimating the ranging bullish trend to be continuing.

  • If the price will break 1.1453 resistance level so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
  • If price will break 1.1402 support so the reversal of intra-day price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish trend will be started.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.14531.1402
N/A1.1392


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.1402 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.1453 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : bullish
 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.08 07:40

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Fed Chair Yellen Speaks and 11 pips price movement

2016-04-07 22:30 GMT | [USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speaks]

[USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speaks] = participation in a panel discussion at the International House, in New York.

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EURUSD M5: 11 pips price movement by Fed Chair Yellen Speaks news event :



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.08 16:40

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.S. Wholesale Inventories and 21 pips price movement

2016-04-08 15:00 GMT | [USD - Wholesale Inventories]

if actual < forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Wholesale Inventories] = Change in the total value of goods held in inventory by wholesalers.

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EURUSD M5: 21 pips price movement by U.S. Wholesale Inventories news event :



 

EURUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 10.04 - 17.04: bullish ranging with narrow levels

Daily price is on bullish market condition located to be above Ichimoku cloud and Senkou Span line which is the border between the primary ebarish and the primary bullish trend on the chart. The price is ranging within the following narrow key support/resistance levels:

  • 1.1453 resistance level located far above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart, and
  • 1.1326 support level located above ichimoku cloud on the border between the primary bullish and the secondary correction.

Chinkou Span line is above the price for the ranging bullish market condition, and Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the ranging condition to be continuing.

If D1 price will break 1.1326 support level on close bar so the local downtrend as the secondary correction within the bullish market condition will be started.
If D1 price will break 1.1453 resistance level on close bar from below to above so the bullish trend will be continuing.
If D1 price will break 1.1168 support level on close bar so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started with the secondary ranging.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.


  • Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 1.1453 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 1.1326 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging bullish
Resistance
Support
1.14531.1326
N/A
1.1168


SUMMARY : bullish

TREND : ranging
 

EUR/USD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - waiting for direction of the trend to break the levels

M5 price is located near SMA with period 100 (100 SMA) and SMA with the period 200 (200 SMA) waiting for the direction for the possible breakout in the case of the bullish trend or breakdown in case of the bearish trend to be started. RSI indicator is estimating the local uptrend to be continuing together with possible bullish reversal of the price movement.

  • If the price will break 1.1411 resistance level so the bullish reversal will be started with 1.1427 level as the nearest bullish target to re-enter.
  • If price will break 1.1386 support so the bearish trend will be continuing with 1.1377 and 1.1372 as the nearest intra-day targets.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.14111.1386
1.14271.1377


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.1386 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.1411 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: waiting for direction

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : waiting for direction
 
Sergey Golubev:

EUR/USD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - waiting for direction of the trend to break the levels

...
  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.1386 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.1411 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: waiting for direction

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : waiting for direction

The resistance level at 1.1411 was broken to above - if someone placed buy stop order at this level so this is +33 pips in profit for now:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.11 19:47

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley speech and 49 pips price movement

2016-04-11 13:25 GMT | [USD - FOMC Member Dudley Speaks]

[USD - FOMC Member Dudley Speaks] = to speak about community development at the Association for Neighborhood and Housing Development's annual conference.

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"The Federal Reserve has the twin objectives of maximum sustainable employment and price stability. Achieving the first of our objectives requires that every individual has the opportunity to achieve her full potential in life. Where you happen to be born should not determine your chance of living the American Dream. Research is highlighting possible key determinants of economic opportunity and income mobility. More research is necessary to inform future policy choices in this critical area."

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EUR/USD M5: 49 pips price movement by Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley speech news event :



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.13 07:14

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.S. Federal Budget Balance and 26 pips price movement

2016-04-12 18:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Budget Balance]

  • past data is -192.6B
  • forecast data is -106.5B
  • actual data is -108.0B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Federal Budget Balance] = Difference in value between the federal government's income and spending during the previous month.

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EUR/USD M5: 26 pips price movement by Federal Budget Balance news event :



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