Press review - page 370

[Sergey Golubev]

Gold Up, Hits 3-Month High, As Bulls Continue to Gain Confidence (based on the article)

"Gold prices are modestly higher and scored another three-month high in early U.S. trading Wednesday."

W1 price is located below SMA with period 100 (100 SMA) and below SMA with the period 200 (200 SMA) for the bearish market condition with the local uptrend as the secondary market rally: the price was bounced from 1047.65 support level for the rally to be started and with symmetric triangle pattern to be formed for the direction of the trend.

• If the price will break 1205.74 resistance level so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the ranging bullish market condition will be started.
  
• If price will break 1047.65 support so the bearish trend will be continuing.
  
• If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
  

Resistance	Support
1191.48	1047.65
1205.74	N/A

• Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1047.65 support level for possible sell trade
  
• Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1205.74 resistance level for possible buy trade
  
• Trading Summary: rally
  

SUMMARY : bear market rally

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ECB President Draghi Speaks and 57 pips price movement

2016-02-04 08:00 GMT | [EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks]

• past data is n/a
  
• forecast data is n/a
  
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks] = ECB President Mario Draghi speaks at the Deutsche Bundesbank's Marjolin Lecture, in Frankfurt.

==========

"So even in the face of common global shocks, central banks have the ability to deliver their mandates. But in the euro area, that requires a different monetary policy response than for others. That is because we also face a second set of challenges that are largely specific to us. They result from our institutional structure: conducting monetary policy in a segmented banking and capital market, and without a single area-wide fiscal authority as a counterpart. There are two types of challenges in particular that emerge from this."

"There are forces in the global economy today that are conspiring to hold inflation down. Those forces might cause inflation to return more slowly to our objective. But there is no reason why they should lead to a permanently lower inflation rate."

"What matters is that central banks act within their mandates to fulfill their mandates. In the euro area, that might create different challenges than it does in other jurisdictions. But those challenges can be mitigated. They do not justify inaction."

==========

EURUSD M5: 57 pips price movement by ECB President Draghi Speaks news event :

[Sergey Golubev]

Trading the News: Bank of England (BoE) Interest Rate Decision (based on the article)

The Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision is likely to reveal another 8 to 1 split as the central bank remains in no rush to normalize monetary policy, but the updated forecasts may heighten the appeal of the sterling and fuel a larger recovery in GBP/USD should the central bank highlight a greater risk of overshooting the 2% inflation target over the policy horizon.

What’s Expected:



Why Is This Event Important:

Even though Governor Mark Carney largely endorses a wait-and-see approach, an upward revision in the BoE’s economic projections may boost interest rate expectations as central bank officials remain upbeat on the U.K. economy and prepare households/businesses for higher borrowing-costs.

Nevertheless, signs of sticky price growth paired with the pickup in private-sector lending may push the BoE to drop its dovish tone, and the fresh updated coming out of the central bank may spur a larger recovery in the British Pound should the central bank show a greater willingness to implement a rate-hike in 2016.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bearish GBP Trade: MPC Continues to Endorse Wait-and-See Approach

• Need red, five-minute candle following the rate decision to consider a short GBP/USD trade.
• If market reaction favors selling Cable, short GBP/USD with two separate position.
• Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
• Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit.

Bearish GBP Trade: BoE Highlights Greater Risk of Overshooting Long-Term Inflation Target

• Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long GBP/USD trade.
• Implement same setup as the bearish sterling trade, just in reverse.

Potential Price Targets For The Release
GBP/USD Daily

• Long-term outlook for GBP/USD remains tilted to the downside as the pair preserves the downward trend from back in August, but the near-term advance in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) may foreshadow a larger correction in the exchange rate as the oscillator threatens the bearish formation carried over from May.
• Interim Resistance: 1.4910 (61.8% retracement) to 1.4930 (38.2% expansion)
• Interim Support: 1.3870 (78.6% expansion) and 1.4000 pivot

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for GBP/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.04 09:59

GBPUSD M5: 63 pips range price movement by BOE Official Bank Rate news event :

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Retail Sales and 25 pips price movement

2016-02-05 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Retail Sales ex Inflation]

• past data is 0.5%
• forecast data is 0.9%
• actual data is 0.6% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Retail Sales] = the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

==========

AUDUSD M5: 25 pips price movement by AUD Retail Sales news event :

[Sergey Golubev]

Technical Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD (based on the article)

EUR/USD: Bullish. Major resistance at 1.1238, waiting for breakout or correction.

GBP/USD: Neutral: Closing above 1.4667 would indicate the bullish phase to be started.

AUD/USD: Bullish: Target a move to 0.7242 to continuing with bullish trend.

NZD/USD: Bullish: Target a move to 0.6746 for bullish to be continuing.

[Sergey Golubev]

Trading News Events: Non-Farm Employment Change (based on the article)

What’s Expected:



Why Is This Event Important:

Even though the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) appears to be on course to implement higher borrowing-costs over the coming months, the disinflationary environment across the major industrialized economies may keep the Fed on the sidelines for most of the year as central bank officials look for greater evidence of achieving the 2% target for price growth.

However, the persistent slack in private-sector consumption paired with the rise in planned job-cuts may drag on employment, and a soft labor report along with a marked slowdown in wage growth may spark a further depreciation in the dollar as market participants push out bets for the next Fed rate-hike.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Bullish USD Trade: NFP Climbs 190K+, Hourly Earnings Highlight Sticky Wage Growth

• Need red, five-minute candle following the NFP print to consider a short trade on EUR/USD.
• If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position.
• Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
• Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit.

Bearish USD Trade: U.S Employment Report Fails to Meet Market Forecast

• Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade.
• Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction.

Potential Price Targets For The Release
EURUSD Daily

• Even though the diverging paths for monetary policy casts a long-term bearish outlook for EUR/USD, the pair may test the broad range from the previous year as it appears to be breaking out of the downward trend carried over from the end of 2014; will keep a close eye on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as it approaches overbought territory, with a break above 70 highlighting the risk for a further advance in the exchange rate.
• Interim Resistance: 1.1510 (50% retracement) to 1.1520 (61.8% expansion)
• Interim Support: Interim Support: 1.0380 (78.6% expansion) to 1.0410 (61.8% expansion)

December 2015 U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls
EURUSD M5: 57 pips price movement by USD - U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change news event:

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for EUR/USD

Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.05 10:55

EURUSD M5: 133 pips range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news event:

[Sergey Golubev]

Forex Weekly Outlook February 8-12 (based on the article)

Janet Yellen and Glenn Stevens speeches, US Crude Oil Inventories, Unemployment Claims, Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment. These are the main market movers for this week. 

1. Janet Yellen speaks: Wednesday, 15:00. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will testify on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee, in Washington DC. Yellen may explain the Fed’s decision to leave rates unchanged on its January meeting and may offer clues about possible timing for the next hike. The weakness overseas in China, Japan and Europe raised concerns about their effects on US economic outlook. Therefore, policy makers decided to wait and let the storm pass before raising rates again.
2. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 15:30. U.S. crude oil inventories surged more than expected last week. Inventories edged up 7.8 million barrels to 502.7 million barrels beating analysts’ expectations for an increase of 4.8 million barrels. Economists expect this growth trend to continue.
3. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30.  The number of jobless claims increased unexpectedly last week by 8,000 to 285,000 as more Americans sought unemployment benefits. However, the reading still suggest that employers are still eager to hire since the number of claims stayed below the 300,000 threshold.  The four-week moving average of claims rose 2,000 to 284,750 last week. Economists had forecast claims rising to 280,000. US jobless claims are expected to reach 287,000 this week.
4. Glenn Stevens speaks: Thursday, 22:30. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens testifies before the House Representatives in Sydney. The RBA decided to keep rates on hold at its last cash rate meeting last week. Concerns over the global economy especially in China, one of its main trading partners, caused a further decline in Australia’s terms of trade. However, Australia’s domestic economy has improved in 2015 business conditions advanced above average levels, employment growth picked up and the unemployment rate declined.
5. US Retail Sales: Friday, 13:30. US retail sales declined in December by 0.1%, the weakest reading since 2009, raising concern about the pace of consumer spending in 2016. The release was in line with market forecast. In 2015, sales climbed 2.1%, the smallest advance of the current economic expansion. Weaker sales in electronics stores, clothing merchants and grocers, indicate Americans preferred to increase their savings despite the constant improvement in the labor market. Core sakes, excluding automobiles also contracted by 0.1% while expected to climb 0.2%. Economists expect retail sales will rise 0.1%, while core sales will remain flat.
6. US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 15:30. Consumer confidence surged in January to the highest level in seven months, reaching 93.3, following 92.6 in December. The reading suggests low inflation had a favorable impact on households, whose outlook for wage gains remained subdued. Economists expected a reading of 92.7. The current conditions index dropped to 105.1 from the prior month’s 108.1, while the six month outlook edged up to 85.7, the highest since June, from 82.7. Consumer confidence  is expected to rise to 92.6 this time.

[Sergey Golubev]

LinkedIn shares drop 43% as weak forecast spooks investors (the article)

"LinkedIn Corp’s shares plunged as much as 43% on Friday, wiping out nearly $11bn of market value, after the social network for professionals shocked Wall Street with a revenue forecast that fell far short of expectations."

[Sergey Golubev]

The Best E-Commerce Stock Is Not Amazon (based on the article)

"When most people think of e-commerce, the first name that leaps to mind is Amazon.com (AMZN). There’s good reason for that: according to Macquarie Research, the retail giant accounted for more than half of all e-commerce growth last year."

[Sergey Golubev]

Setup for EUR/USD by Barclays (adapted from the article)

EUR/USD: "We have turned bearish against resistance in the 1.1260/90 area and look for a move towards former range highs near 1.1060. A break below 1.1060 would signal an end to the corrective bounce off 1.0525 and further downside towards 1.0780."