Forecast for Q1'16 - levels for GOLD (XAU/USD) - page 2

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.04 08:05

Gold Up, Hits 3-Month High, As Bulls Continue to Gain Confidence (based on the article)

"Gold prices are modestly higher and scored another three-month high in early U.S. trading Wednesday."

W1 price is located below SMA with period 100 (100 SMA) and below SMA with the period 200 (200 SMA) for the bearish market condition with the local uptrend as the secondary market rally: the price was bounced from 1047.65 support level for the rally to be started and with symmetric triangle pattern to be formed for the direction of the trend.

  • If the price will break 1205.74 resistance level so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the ranging bullish market condition will be started.
  • If price will break 1047.65 support so the bearish trend will be continuing.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1191.48
1047.65
1205.74
N/A

  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1047.65 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1205.74 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: rally
SUMMARY : bear market rally

 

GOLD (XAU/USD) Technical Outlook - weekly breakout with bullish reversal; monthly bear market rally to be started

W1 price is on primary bullish with breakout on open weekly bar for now: price is breaking Senkou Span line (which is the virtual border between the primary ebarish and the primary bullish area of the chart) to be inside Ichimoku cloud for the secondary ranging within the primary bullish market condition. Chinkou Span line broke the price to above on close weekly bar for the breakout to be continuing, and Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the bullish trend to be started in the near future for example.

Monthly price is on the primary bearish market condition with the secondary ranging within 1205.74 resistance and 1046.27 support levels. If the price breaks 1205.74 resistance on close monthly bar so the local uprend as the bear market rally will be started, otherwise - bearish ranging within the levels.



If W1 price will break 1128.05 support level on close W1 bar so we may see the bearish market condition for XAU/USD.
If W1 price will break 1205.74 resistance level to above so the price will be finally reversed to the primary bullish condition without secondary ranging.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

Trend: 

W1 - bullish breakout
 

Gold Technical Analysis: bullish reversal in a medium term, rally to be started in long-term

Medium-term situation

Seem the weekly breakout is going on for now: the price is breaking Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart:


The reversal resistance level is 1205.74 so if the price breaks this level to above so it will be the bullish reversal.

The situation in a long-term

The key resistance level for monthly timeframe is the same one: 1205.74, and if the price breaks this level so the local uptrend as a bear market rally will be started:

I think the traders (who invested in gold thinking that 1040/1047 value is the bottom) are having good money now.

 

Gold (XAU/USD) is continuing with daily bullish breakout: the price broke 200-day SMA to above together with 1174.50 level. For now - the price is testing 1200.84 resistance with 1205.74 target to re-enter:


 
Sergey Golubev:

Gold (XAU/USD) is continuing with daily bullish breakout: the price broke 200-day SMA to above together with 1174.50 level. For now - the price is testing 1200.84 resistance with 1205.74 target to re-enter:


Price broke 1200.84 together with 1205.74 resistance level. Daily bullish breakout is continuing.


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.13 08:40

Why Most Investors Hate Gold (based on the article)


  • "We’ll be blunt: most financial asset investors really hate gold. This only happens when investors think central banks have lost their way, and that’s not good news.  Think of gold as a super-duty dive watch.  It can go places humans can’t actually even dive.  The watch will outlive the person wearing it.  Kind of cool, but you don’t necessarily want to test it yourself."
  • "First, when the S&P 500 drops 5% or more in one day. Second, when the CBOE VIX Index tops 40. And third, when everything sells off for a few days and correlations for all equities approaches one."

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.19 08:56

Gold Rallies On More Bargain Hunting, Technical Buying (based on the article)


  • "Gold prices ended the U.S. day session with solid gains Thursday. Some early profit-taking was overcome by bargain hunters buying the dip and by fresh chart-based buying interest—both of which coincided with the U.S. stock indexes coming under selling pressure. April Comex gold was last up $14.10 at $1,225.60 an ounce. March Comex silver was last up $0.048 at $15.42 an ounce."
  • "Most world stock markets were higher Thursday, following the lead of higher crude oil prices that climbed close to $32.00 a barrel. However, U.S. stock indexes started to weaken in late-morning trading and were posting losses in afternoon trading Thursday. Still, this week has seen a strong rebound in world stock markets, following selling pressure early this year that recently drove most stock indexes into, or close to, bear market territory. There are now technical clues the major U.S. stock indexes have put in market bottoms. Gold and silver bulls should be impressed their metals were able to hold up fairly well this week, in the face of better risk appetite in the marketplace."

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.20 15:48

Fundamental Analysis: Weekly Trading Forecast for Gold (XAU/USD)  (based on the article)


Gold (XAU/USD)
"Aside from the economic docket, be on the lookout for a host of Fed speakers next week with Vice Chair Stanley Fisher, St Louis President James Bullard, Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart and San Francisco President John Williams slated for speeches next week. Traders will be attempting to ascertain the timing & willingness of the central bank (or if there even is a willingness) to further normalize monetary policy amid the ongoing turmoil in broader financial markets."



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.02.25 06:43

We expect gold prices to average $980 an ounce this year and $860 in 2017 - BNP Paribas (based on the article)


Harry Tchilinguirian, global head of commodity markets strategy at BNP Paribas:

  • "Yes we’ve seen a rally in gold, which is something we were expecting, but the longer-term trend is still down. In our last report, we warned about a rally in the near-term. The price overshot our target at $1,150 but we don’t think it has room to move much further."
  • "We expected to see a rally in gold tied to risk aversion related to weakness in the Chinese economy. But if I look at what is happening now in China — expectations of yuan devaluation have subsided considerably and the Shanghai stock index has rebounded from its lows in January. A lot of the pressures that drove gold higher are now coming off."
  • "We need an inflationary environment, we need other prices of commodities — in particular oil — to go up and we need economic growth. These factor are not present. Some people are even looking for a slowdown in the U.S."

As we see from the image - the XAU/USD weekly price is located between 200 period SMA and 100 period SMA for the ranging bearish market condition.

  • If the price breaks 1,340 resistance to above so the reversal of the weekly price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish condition will be started.
  • If the price breaks 1,046 support to below so the bearish trend will be continuing.

 

GOLD: End Of Week Technicals - secondary intra-day correction to the possible ranging bearish reversal

H4 price is on primary bullish market condition with the secondary correction to be started by 1225.53 support level to be broken:

  • The price is located near and above 100 period SMA (100 SMA) and above 200 period SMA (200 SMA) for the primary bullish condition.
  • Bearish reversal support level is 1186.85, and if the price breaks this level to below so the reversal of intra-day price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started with the secondary ranging.

If the price breaks 1186.85 support level so the bearish reversal of the price movement will be started.
If the price breaks 1263.31 resistance level so the primary bullish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close the price to break 1263.31 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1186.85 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: bearish


Resistance
 Support
1263.311186.85
N/A
1163.53

SUMMARY : bullish

TREND : intra-day correction
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