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Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.05 20:45
NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: GlobalDairyTrade Price Index and 37 pips price movement
2016-04-05 15:27 GMT | [NZD - GDT Price Index]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)
[NZD - GDT Price Index] = Change in the average price of dairy products sold at auction.
NZDUSD M5: 37 pips price movement by GlobalDairyTrade Price Index news event
NZDUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 17.04 - 24.04: ranging bullish
Daily price is on bullish market condition located above Ichimoku cloud - the price is ranging within the following key support/resistance levels:
Span line is above the price for the ranging bullish market condition,, Trend Strength indicator is estimating the secondary correction to be started, and Absolute Strange indicator is evaluating the price
movement as the secondary ranging condition to be continuing.
If D1 price will break 0.6758
support level on close bar so the secondary correction within the primary bulluish trend will be started with 0.6574 lbearish reversal level as the next target.If D1 price will break 0.6965
resistance level on close bar from below to above so the bullish trend will be continuing.If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.
SUMMARY : ranging
Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.18 08:08
NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: NZ Consumer Price Index and 75 pips range price movement
2016-04-17 22:45 GMT | [NZD - CPI]
[NZD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.
NZD/USD M5: 75 pips range price movement by NZ Consumer Price Index news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.18 20:04
Technical evaluation of long-term BNZ forecasts (adapted from the article)
Bank of New Zealand made a long-term forecasts for some pairs as the following:
As we do not know the trading system they used for this forecast so let's evaluate on technical way by Metatrader together with using free Codebase indicators.
EUR/USD. As we see from the chart below - weekly price is on bearish market condition with the ranging within the following key support/resistance levels:
The price is on local uptrend as the bear market rally to be started in the end of February this year: price is testing Fibo resistance level at 1.1464 to above for the rally to be continuing. The next alternative scenario was evaluated by BNZ and it is related to the following: the price will be on bearish ranging within narrow support/resistance levels such as the following: 23.6% Fibo level at 1.1241 and 50.0% Fibo level at 1.0993. Bank of New Zealand is expecting for this ranging bearish condition to be continuing up to the end of Q1'17 for example.I think the more likely sscenario for this pair in long-term situation is to ranging with more wide levels within 1.1400 and 1.1000, and those levels are fully related to the daily chart's s/r/ levels together RSI and price pattern's expectation for example.
NZD/USD. BNZ is estimating for this pair to be on bearish ranging within very narrow levels with the bearish trend to be continuing since 0.6500 to 0.6100. But if we look at weekly chart so we can see the bearish market condition with the different ranging levels: the price is on ranging within Fibo resistance level at 0.6965 and 61.8% Fibo support level at 0.6564. By the way, the ascending triangle p[attern was formed by the price to be crossed for the bear market rally to be continuing with the possible buloish reversal to be started in the future.
RSI indicator is also estinating the secondary rally with possible bullish reversal.Thus, the most likely scenarios for the pair are the following: bearish ranging within 0.69/0.65 levels, or the bullish erversal to be started in case the price breaks 0.6965 to above.
Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.23 08:53
Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for Dollar Index, USD/JPY, USD/CNH, NZD/USD, AUD/USD and GOLD (based on the article)
Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.27 08:21
NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: NZ Overseas Merchandise Trade and 19 pips price movement
2016-04-26 22:45 GMT | [NZD - Trade Balance]
[NZD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.
NZD/USD M5: 19 pips price movement by NZ Overseas Merchandise Trade news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.04 08:53
NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: NZ Unemployment Rate and 36 pips price movement
2016-05-03 22:45 GMT | [NZD - Unemployment Rate]
if actual < forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)
[NZD - Unemployment Rate] = Percentage of total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous quarter.
NZD/USD M5: 36 pips price movement by NZ Unemployment Rate news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.08 08:46
Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for Dollar Index, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CNH, NZD/USD, AUD/USD and GOLD (based on the article)
Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.11 09:03
NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Financial Stability Report and 68 pips price movement
2016-05-10 21:00 GMT | [NZD - RBNZ Financial Stability Report]
[NZD - RBNZ Financial Stability Report] = It provides insights into the bank's view of inflation, growth, and
other economic conditions that will affect interest rates in the future.
NZDUSD M5: 68 pips price movement by RBNZ Financial Stability Report news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.13 07:18
NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: NZ Retail Sales and 9 pips price movement
2016-05-12 22:45 GMT | [NZD - Retail Sales]
[NZD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level.
NZD/USD M5: 9 pips price movement by NZ Retail Sales news event
Sergey Golubev, 2016.05.17 09:27
NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBNZ Inflation Expectations and 28 pips price movement
2016-05-17 03:00 GMT | [NZD - Inflation Expectations]
[NZD - Inflation Expectations] = Percentage that business managers expect the price of goods and services to change annually during the next 2 years.
Expectations for the next two year edged up to 1.64 percent from 1.63
percent the previous survey. The survey was conducted by the Nielsen
Company for the RBNZ.
NZD/USD M5: 28 pips price movement by RBNZ Inflation Expectations news event