Press review - page 359

Khurram Mustafa
33450
Khurram Mustafa  

Thanks for Guidelines with proper strategy :) 

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals - Federal Funds Rate and 15 pips price movement

2014-12-16 19:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

[USD - Federal Funds Rate]= Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

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The Committee judges that there has been considerable improvement in labor market conditions this year, and it is reasonably confident that inflation will rise, over the medium term, to its 2 percent objective. Given the economic outlook, and recognizing the time it takes for policy actions to affect future economic outcomes, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative after this increase, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.

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EURUSD M5: 81 pips price movement by USD - Federal Funds Rate news event :


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

Forecast for Tomorrow - levels for EUR/USD: Euro drops to 10-day low (adapted from the article)

  • "The Euro is facing swelling selling pressure against the US Dollar in the aftermath of the FOMC monetary policy announcement, with prices dropping to a two-week low. The pair topped below the 1.11 figure having rebounded following the ECB rate decision."
  • "Near-term support is in the 1.0777-1.0818 area, marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion and the May 27 low."
  • "A daily close below this barrier paves the way for a test of the 38.2% level at 1.0602."

H4 price is located above SMA with period 100 (100 SMA) and above SMA with the period 200 (200 SMA) for the ranging within the following key reversal support/resistance levels:

  • 1.1059 resistance level located far above 100 SMA/200 SMA in the bullish area of the chart, and
  • 1.0520 support level located below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the bearish area of the chart.

RSI indicator is estimating the bearish reversal to be started in the near future with the secondary ranging market condition. Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price with 1.0831 support level to be crossed for good possible breakout.

  • If the price will break 1.1059 resistance level so the bullish trend will be continuing without ranging.
  • If price will break 1.0831 support so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
  • If price will break 1.0520 support so we may see good bearish breakdown.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.10591.0831
N/A
1.0520


  • Recommendation to go short: watch close H4 price to break 1.0831 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch close H4 price to break 1.1059 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : ranging on bearish reversal

TREND : waiting for direction
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

Trading ideas for EUR/USD by UBS Group (adapted from the article)

UBS Group made a forecast suggesting to sell EUR/USD at 1.0880/1.0900 levels with stop loss above 1.0935 and take profit to be below 1.0800. Let's evaluate this fundamental forecast with the technical point of view.

H4 price is on local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish market condition: the price is located near and above SMA with period 100 (100-SMA) and SMA with the period 200 (200-SMA) waiting for bearish reversal or for the bullish continuation.

  • If the price will break 1.1059 resistance level so the bullish trend will be continuing.
  • If price will break 1.0831 support so the bearish reversal will be started.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.10591.0831
N/A
1.0580


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.0831 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.1059 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : correction to reversal

TREND : waiting for direction
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - ranging bullish; waiting to break the levels (adapted from the article)

Societe Generale is forecasting the ranging market condition for EUR/USD intra-day prices: "A break below 1.08 will lead to test of next retracement levels at 1.0730 and even 1.0650." Let's review the situation with the technical points of view.

M5 price is located above SMA with period 100 (100-SMA) and above SMA with the period 200 (200-SMA) on the primary bullish market condition with the secondary ranging within the following key support/resistance levels:

  • 1.0872 resistance level located above 100 SMA/200 SMA in the bullish area of intra-day chart, and
  • 1.0832 support level located on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart.

The price is breaking 1.0857 resistance level to above together with ascending triangle pattern for the bullish trend to be continuing. RSI indicator is estimating the bullish breakdown to be started in the near future.

  • If the price will break 1.0872 resistance level so the bullish trend will be continuing.
  • If price will break 1.0832 support so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started with the secondary ranging.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.08571.0832
1.0872N/A



  • Recommendation to go short: watch close price to break 1.0832 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch close price to break 1.0872 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging bullish

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : bullish
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

USD/CAD Intra-Day Analysis - Bank of Canada Core CPI and and intra-day price to be ranging near reversal

2014-12-18 13:30 GMT | [CAD - Core CPI m/m]

  • past data is 0.3%
  • forecast data is 0.0%
  • actual data is N/A according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[Bank of Canada Core CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding the 8 most volatile items.

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M5 price is located above SMA with period 100 (100-SMA) and SMA with the period 200 (200-SMA) on the primary bullish market condition with the secondary ranging within 1.3786 resistance level and 1.3724 support level.

  • If the price will break 1.3986 resistance level so the bullish trend will be continuing.
  • If price will break 1.3924 support so we may see the reversal of intra-day price movement to the primary bearish market condition.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.39701.3924
1.39861.3942


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.3924 support level on close M5 bar for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch close M5 price to break 1.3986 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : bullish market condition

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

USDCAD, M5, 2015.12.18

USDCAD M5: 75 pips price movement by CAD - CPI news event

USDCAD, M5, 2015.12.18, MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

Forex Weekly Outlook December 21-24 (based on the article)

US and Canadian GDP data, US Durable Goods Orders and Unemployment claims are the final highlights before Christmas break. Here is an outlook on these major events.

Last week the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade showing faith in the U.S. economy. The central bank raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point to between 0.25% and 0.50. Policy makers reiterated that the US economy is performing well and is expected to improve further. The labor market advanced considerably reaching an unemployment rate of 5%. Furthermore, inflation is expected to rise over the medium term towards the 2 % target. Fed officials declared that the rate hike was the beginning of a “gradual” tightening cycle.

  1. US Final GDP: Tuesday, 13:30. The US economy advanced more than previously estimated in the second quarter. Data showed the world’s biggest economy expanded at an annual pace of 3.9% between April and June, while economists expected GDP to stay unchanged at 3.7%. This was a welcome change from the sluggish 0.6% growth recorded in the first quarter of 2015. Economists expect GDP to rise 1.9% in the third quarter.
  2. Canadian GDP: Wednesday, 13:30. Canada’s economy broke a three-month winning streak in September with a 0.5% GDP contraction. The energy sector weighed on output with a 5.5% decline in oil prices, raising concerns over growth in the last quarter of 2015. There were also declines in manufacturing, wholesale trade. Nevertheless, Canadian economy expanded in the third quarter posting a 2.3% growth rate on an annualized basis, following two straight quarters of contraction. However, economists do not expect such strong growth in the fourth quarter.
  3. US Durable Goods Orders: Wednesday, 13:30.  Orders for long-lasting products registered solid gain of 3.0% in October following two months of declines. Business investment was the major contributor with a 1.3% rise. Demand for commercial aircraft also increased. Meanwhile, core orders excluding transportation items rose by seasonally adjusted 0.5% in October, beating forecasts for a 0.3% increase. Durable orders are expected to decline 0.6%. while Core orders are predicted to rise 0.1%.
  4. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30.  The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week from a five-month high of 282,000 to 271,000, suggesting continued improvement in the US labor market. It was the 41st straight week that claims remained below 300,000. This reading backs the Fed rate hike decision made a day earlier. While claims tend to be volatile around the holiday session, the trend continued to point to a robust employment conditions. The four-week moving average of claims slipped 250 to 270,500 last week. The number of jobless claims is expected to reach 270,000 this week.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook by Morgan Stanley (based on the article)

Morgan Stanley made a fundamental forecast fr this pair by telling that "EUR downside may be limited":

  • "The EUR is currently driven by the global risk environment."
  • "Over the past year the EUR has been turned into a global funding currency, strengthening when risk sells off. In general, the fall in the oil price and commodities more broadly has put pressure on the credit markets in the US. There appears to be no sign of a turnaround in oil markets, suggesting that EUR downside may be limited. We watch for the point at which Draghi becomes worried about inflation once again for the EUR to turn lower."

Let's evaluate this forecast with the technical point of view.

W1 price is located to be below S1 Pivot at 1.0672 and above S2 Pivot at 1.0672 in the primary bearish market condition. Symmetric triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed for direction, and RSI indicator is estimating the bearish trend to be continuing with the secondary ranging.

If price will break S1 Pivot at 1.1337 from below to above so the local uptrend as the secondary market rally will be started within the primary bearish market condition up to Central YR1 Pivot at 1.2665 as the next target.
If the price will break S2 Pivot at 1.0672 from above to below on close weekly bar so the bearish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be ranging between the levels.

  • Recommendation for long: watch close price to break 1.1337 for possible buy trade
  • Recommendation to go short: watch W1 price to break 1.0672 support level for possible sell trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging bearish


InstrumentS2 Pivot
S1 Pivot
Yearly PP
R1 Pivot
EUR/USD 1.0672
1.1337 1.2665
1.3329
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD and GBP/USD: End Of Week Technicals by Barclays Capital (adapted from the article)

Barclays is forecasting the EUR/USD price and GBP/USD price at year-end as the following:

EUR/USD. Ranging. Weekly price is on bearish for the ranging within 1.1713 key erversal reversal level and 1.0520 key support bearish level. RSI indicator is estimating for the ranging bearish trend to be continuing. The most likely scenario for the price movement up to the end of this year is the ranging trend to be continuing within 1.1713/1.0520 s/r area.


Resistance
Support
1.1095
1.0557
1.1713
1.0520

GBP/USD. Bearish. The price is located below 100 period SMA and 200 period SMA for the ranging bearish breakdown: price is breaking descending triangle pattern to below with 1.4864 support level for the bearish trend to be continuing with 1.4565 support level as the next bearish target. The most like scenario for this pair to be moved at the end of the year is the following: bearish breakdown will be continuing with 1.4565 target level.


Resistance
 Support
1.10951.0557
1.17131.0520
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals - German Producer Price Index and 10 pips price movement

2015-12-21 07:00 GMT | [EUR - German PPI]

[EUR - German PPI] = Change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when manufacturers charge more for goods the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer.


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In November 2015 the index of producer prices for industrial products fell by 2.5% compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year. In October 2015 the annual rate of change all over had been –2.3%. In November 2015 energy prices decreased by 7,1% compared with November 2014, prices of non-durable consumer goods by 0.1% and prices of intermediate goods by 2.2%. In contrast prices of capital goods rose by 0.7% and prices of durable consumer goods by 1.5%.


The overall index disregarding energy decreased by 0.7% compared with November 2014. Compared with the preceding month the overall index fell by 0.2% in November 2015 (–0.4% in October 2015 and –0.4% in September 2015).

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EURUSD M5: 10 pips price movement by EUR - German PPI news event :