EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015, 13.12 - 20.12: ranging on reversal - page 2

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.12.16 20:22

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals - Federal Funds Rate and 15 pips price movement

2014-12-16 19:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

[USD - Federal Funds Rate]= Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

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EURUSD M5: 81 pips price movement by USD - Federal Funds Rate news event :



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.12.17 08:02

Forecast for Tomorrow - levels for EUR/USD: Euro drops to 10-day low (adapted from the article)

  • "The Euro is facing swelling selling pressure against the US Dollar in the aftermath of the FOMC monetary policy announcement, with prices dropping to a two-week low. The pair topped below the 1.11 figure having rebounded following the ECB rate decision."
  • "Near-term support is in the 1.0777-1.0818 area, marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion and the May 27 low."
  • "A daily close below this barrier paves the way for a test of the 38.2% level at 1.0602."

H4 price is located above SMA with period 100 (100 SMA) and above SMA with the period 200 (200 SMA) for the ranging within the following key reversal support/resistance levels:

  • 1.1059 resistance level located far above 100 SMA/200 SMA in the bullish area of the chart, and
  • 1.0520 support level located below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the bearish area of the chart.

RSI indicator is estimating the bearish reversal to be started in the near future with the secondary ranging market condition. Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price with 1.0831 support level to be crossed for good possible breakout.

  • If the price will break 1.1059 resistance level so the bullish trend will be continuing without ranging.
  • If price will break 1.0831 support so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
  • If price will break 1.0520 support so we may see good bearish breakdown.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.10591.0831
N/A
1.0520


  • Recommendation to go short: watch close H4 price to break 1.0831 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch close H4 price to break 1.1059 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : ranging on bearish reversal

TREND : waiting for direction

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.12.17 12:50

Trading ideas for EUR/USD by UBS Group (adapted from the article)

UBS Group made a forecast suggesting to sell EUR/USD at 1.0880/1.0900 levels with stop loss above 1.0935 and take profit to be below 1.0800. Let's evaluate this fundamental forecast with the technical point of view.

H4 price is on local downtrend as the secondary correction within the primary bullish market condition: the price is located near and above SMA with period 100 (100-SMA) and SMA with the period 200 (200-SMA) waiting for bearish reversal or for the bullish continuation.

  • If the price will break 1.1059 resistance level so the bullish trend will be continuing.
  • If price will break 1.0831 support so the bearish reversal will be started.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.10591.0831
N/A
1.0580


  • Recommendation to go short: watch the price to break 1.0831 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch the price to break 1.1059 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging

SUMMARY : correction to reversal

TREND : waiting for direction

 

EUR/USD Price Action Analysis - 50.0% Fibo support level to be crossed for the breakdown to be continuing

D1 price is located below 200 day SMA and 100 day SMA for the primary bearish market condition: the price was bounced from Fibo resistance level at 1.1043 for the bearish breakdown breaking 23.6% Fibo level at 1.0932 and 38.2% Fibo level at 1.0852. The price was stopped near and above 50.0% Fibo support level at 1.0788 trying to cross it from above to below for the bearish breakdown to be continuing with 61.8% Fibo support level at 1.0727 as the next bearish target.


If the price will break 50.0% Fibo support level at 1.0788 so the bearish breakdown will be continuing up to 61.8% Fibo support level at 1.0727 as the next bearish target.
If the price will break Fibo resistance level at 1.1043 from below to above so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish trend will be started.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

Trend:

D1 - bearish breakdown
 

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Sergey Golubev, 2015.12.18 07:35

EUR/USD Intra-Day Technical Analysis - ranging bullish; waiting to break the levels (adapted from the article)

Societe Generale is forecasting the ranging market condition for EUR/USD intra-day prices: "A break below 1.08 will lead to test of next retracement levels at 1.0730 and even 1.0650." Let's review the situation with the technical points of view.

M5 price is located above SMA with period 100 (100-SMA) and above SMA with the period 200 (200-SMA) on the primary bullish market condition with the secondary ranging within the following key support/resistance levels:

  • 1.0872 resistance level located above 100 SMA/200 SMA in the bullish area of intra-day chart, and
  • 1.0832 support level located on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart.

The price is breaking 1.0857 resistance level to above together with ascending triangle pattern for the bullish trend to be continuing. RSI indicator is estimating the bullish breakdown to be started in the near future.

  • If the price will break 1.0872 resistance level so the bullish trend will be continuing.
  • If price will break 1.0832 support so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started with the secondary ranging.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Resistance
Support
1.08571.0832
1.0872N/A



  • Recommendation to go short: watch close price to break 1.0832 support level for possible sell trade
  • Recommendation to go long: watch close price to break 1.0872 resistance level for possible buy trade
  • Trading Summary: ranging bullish

SUMMARY : ranging

TREND : bullish

 

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EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015, December: weekly bearish pattern for breakdown, monthly breakdown with support target

Sergey Golubev, 2015.12.18 17:41

EUR/USD Price Action Analysis - 50.0% Fibo support level to be broken for the bearish trend to be continuing

D1 price is located below 200 day SMA (200 SMA) and 100 day SMA (100 SMA) for the primary bearish market condition. The price was bounced from 100 SMA/200 SMA and Fibo resistance at 1.1062 for the bearish ranging within the following key reversal support/resistance levels:

  • Fibo resistance at 1.1062 located on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the daily chart, and
  • Fibo support level at 1.0520 located far below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the primary bearish area of the chart.
The price is breaking 50.0% Fibo support level at 1.0788 for the bearish trend to be continuing with 1.0520 as the next bearish target.


Resistance
Support
1.10621.0788
1.1419
1.0520

If the price will break 50.0% Fibo support level at 1.0788 on close daily bas so the bearish trend will be continuing with the secondary ranging up to 1.0520 level as the next target to re-enter
If the price will break Fibo resistance at 1.1062 from below to above so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bearish to the primary bullish trend will be started.
If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

Trend:

D1 - ranging bearish

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